저자: DavidTepper · 외국인
요약 보기
데이비드 테퍼의 투자 원칙 10가지를 소개하는 영상이다. 결론: 리더가 되어 선제적으로 움직이고, 레버리지를 쓰지 않으며, 비관이 과도한 신호를 찾고, 정부 개입 신호를 읽으며, 상방이 큰 소액 손실 구조에 투자하라는 것이 핵심이다. 초기 원칙: 무리의 선두에 서서 가장 먼저 움직이고, 투자자 의견에 휘둘리지 않는 것이 중요하다고 강조한다. 2000년 닷컴 버블 때 투자자 압력으로 나스닥 포지션을 청산한 사례를 들며, 청산 후 나스닥이 폭락했다고 말한다. 레버리지와 자본 관리: 레버리지를 사용하지 않으며, 연말에 수익금 일부를 투자자에게 돌려주는 습관이 있다고 언급한다(2016년 12월 약 30억 달러, 펀드의 20% 반환 사례). 과도한 비관 신호: 1995년 아르헨티나 은행 예금 증가를 긍정적 변화의 신호로 보고 아르헨티나 국채를 매수해 수익을 낸 사례를 든다. 정부 개입 신호: 2009년 미국 정부가 은행주 매입 계획을 백서로 미리 밝혔고, 시장이 믿지 않았지만 채권 등에 투자해 이익을 얻었다고 설명한다. 정부 발표는 법적 구속력이 있다는 판단이 근거였다. 자산군과 기업 선택: 주식, 채권, 항공, 은행, 철강, 에너지, 통신 등 모든 자산군을 대상으로 하며 롱·숏 모두 가능하다. 파산 기업 중에서도 매출이 높아 회복 능력이 있는 기업을 선호한다. 감정 통제: 때로는 감정을 배제하고 아무것도 하지 않는 것이 최선이라고 말한다. 비대칭 투자: 하방은 작고 상방이 큰 상황에 투자한다. 경기 방향을 확신할 수 없을 때 하방이 제한적인 주식이나 채권에 투자해 경기 개선 시 큰 수익을 노리는 전략을 설명한다. 본 영상은 2017년 게시된 것으로, 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 구체적인 가격 전망은 포함되어 있지 않다.
다듬은 글
welcome to episode 69 David Tepper pen trading rules this is an outline of episode 69 rule number one be the leader of the herd be the first to get out of the gate I always get the best glass sometimes I got eaten by lions you've done this consistently year after year after year after year so does that mean it feels like this come along all the time and you don't see - look we're we're her for better or worse we're a herd leader okay we're at the front of the pack we are one of the first movers first movers are interested you get to the good grass first or sometimes a line each year so sometimes we have negative years but most years we do well remember to do not listen to investors for example in 2000 he shouldered the Nasdaq index during the.com he was forced to liquidate his position because his investors were nervous three months after he liquidated his position the Nasdaq collapse he could have made a lot of money since 2000 he has ignored the investors we number three no leverage none how much leverage not not but not what do you need leverage for you don't just I'm going to do 40% it when you've seen the outside returns in the past some of these guys have used leverage now we don't have leverage and we didn't have leverage in um in 2009 we don't have leverage this year remember for pick wide dilation return capital to investors David Kaplan has a habit of returning money to investors at the end of the year for example in December 2016 he returned 20% of the fund about three billion dollars to investors now the majority of the fund belongs to him and his employees rule number five look for triggers of excessive pessimism for example he saw rising bank deposit in Argentina in 1995 as a change towards the positive in 1995 purchased argentina the argentine sovereign debt worse debt in the country of Argentina I was quoted saying raising rising bank deposits pretended to strengthen economies in other words he was seeing the deposits of these banks increase increase I thought this economy is strengthening the markets overreacting and made a good deal a bit of money on this Argentine debt rule number six look out for possible political intervention look for hints on the government for example the US government in 2009 the hints could be positive like a pile of pump more money Michael Lewis can write a book about a huge trade in anything it can be a best seller what did you see how did you do it in o.9 what it would what happened with buying banks at the beginning around what did you see is easy it was easy it was fine y'see the government told you what they were going to do basically the government put out a white paper I can remember the exact date Ari's paper in March it was a Treasury paper you know you can't put out a paper and say you're going to you're going to buy securities and not buy them even the government has to be subject to the laws so they told me they were going to by Bank of America at six at a six handle they told me where they were going to buy all their stocks nobody believed them the market kept going down we actually did so what we did is we didn't buy just stocks we bought bonds so we bought you know bonds have preferred you know had twelve cents in a dollar fifteen cents in a dollar twenty cents of the dollar and you know stuff went up but couldn't it have been a situation where some of these things had to get nationalized that's why people not at that point not at that point because you have to believe that the government is not above the law now at that point in time people were confused and I thought I don't know what they thought because what is the habeas corpus in the Civil War right it wasn't that bad although the government did change its mind on many things when it first said this is what tarps for changed it's mine and redirected a lot of that money it saves your time when dealing with you can't put things in writing and say you're going to buy to price you not do it call this the United Security Law School number seven who do any asset class stocks bonds airlines banks steel energy telecom are in your universe will you do anything and long or short anything longer short any asset class yeah Appaloosa Palomino or one set of funds and then we have thoroughbred funds so a pollution Palomino will do anything stocks bonds number eight local companies with high revenues because with high revenues the bankrupt company can find it easier to dig themselves out of the hole prefers those that have high revenue right so bankrupt companies we know the deadest is the catalyst it takes a company under but he looks for those with high revenues that have the ability to dig themselves out and rule number nine sometimes just be unemotional do nothing it was unemotional it was easy it is what it is strain the point is yeah I wasn't emotional was easy sometimes it's just that easy I don't have to be you know is you know what it is fair that's FDA or is that how you spell fair FAA yeah here Pittsburgh so yeah we were pretty out of motional when we invest so it is what it is that's the number ten small town side big upside Luke flow situations a small downside and big upside if you are not sure which direction the economy is going and frankly I don't know is either going to get better or it's going to get worse so you talked about you asked the question when you get moments well clean this might be one of those kinda so you're sitting in a situation where you're down sights not that big if you guys like to talk equities we do a lot of bonds but you're downsides not that big in equity and you have this potential either economy Duke is good and you make a lot of money I was going to say a bad word reload I should sue load up on it I can say that of a over the top or do you need to do that again if you get stronger on your own it's probably okay because generally if the world's stronger the Euro gets stronger but it's not again you trying to figure out is the economy going to get it better by itself or not thank you for - using everyone peace and prosperity
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