저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 짐 로저스는 현재 시장이 향후 큰 약세장(베어마켓)에 들어설 가능성이 높다고 보며, 투자자는 잘 아는 분야에 집중하고 준비와 인내를 갖추라고 조언한다. [약세장 전망] 현재 시장에 비관론이 매우 강하며, 이럴 때 큰 랠리가 나오는 경우가 많다고 설명. 우크라이나 평화 같은 호재가 나오면 시장이 급등할 수 있고, 그 마지막 블로우오프 랠리에서 공매도(숏)를 시작할 계획이라고 언급. 약세장은 피할 수 없으며, 과거 역사상 항상 존재했다고 강조. [미국 경제 비교] 1970년대는 미국이 채권국이었으나, 현재 미국은 세계 역사상 최대 채무국이며 부채 규모가 막대하다고 지적. 일본 주식시장은 1990년 고점을 회복하지 못했고 32년간 하락 상태라는 사례 제시. [2차대전 전후 비교] 당시 미국은 대공황과 전쟁을 거치며 막대한 저축과 여유 생산능력이 있어 부채가 커도 인플레이션이 심하지 않았다고 설명. [투자 조언] 잘 아는 산업이나 분야에 집중하고, 핫팁과 유명 투자 구루의 추천을 따르지 말라고 강조. 지수펀드도 충분히 공부한 뒤에 시작하라고 조언. 공부와 인내가 핵심이며, 확신이 드는 기회가 올 때까지 기다리라고 권고. [출연자 전망] 영상 전반에서 향후 큰 약세장이 올 것이라는 비관적 전망을 유지. 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 목표나 기간은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
markets have gone down significantly during the past few months and some experts believe that it is bound to get worse but i think investors heading into this and traders and economists around the world were looking for direction in terms of where are we in this inflation fighting effort from the fed american entrepreneur jim rogers recently discussed his pessimistic view on the economy and gave some crucial tips on investing we've covered bear markets in many recent videos all of which is related to what we will be covering today make sure you stick around to the end of the video to hear investing advice from one of the greatest to have ever invested in american markets before we get on with the video we'd like to thank you guys for the support you've shown for our channel stay tuned as we will produce more finance content soon if you want to be a successful investor stay with what you know don't listen to me trish stay away from hot tips never ever follow a hot chip and i will say that to many people and say ignore hot tips and they will say okay we understand just give me one hot tip just one just one everybody wants to be rich this week i do too but please my first advice is stay far away from hot chips no matter from where they come but if you want to be successful trish just stay with what you know everybody watching this or reading this knows a lot about something whether it's cars or fashion or sports or something so that's where you start because you already know more than most people you certainly know more than i do about most things because that's what you love when you go to a doctor's office those are the magazines you read or when you go online those are the websites you you visit but you already know a lot more about something than i do and you more know more a lot know more about whatever it is than most people in the world so stay there and when you see something happening in the field that you love and know a lot about something that you know is going to work be successful then do some research find the companies are they smart people do they have too much debt there are many things you can look up about that company but then since you know more about it than most of us if you decide it's going to be successful then you make an investment that's how you become successful and rich and people will say but that's boring okay trish you want to be rich you want to be successful be boring be boring and stay with what you know and don't be following people like maybe you can follow jordan but don't follow me and most other people in the investment world because you will go broke unless you know if i told you something trish now i'm going to give you the long version if i told you something in which to invest and you did it and it went up you wouldn't know what to do you don't know why you bought it if it went down you wouldn't know what to do you'd blame it on me you said that jim rogers doesn't know anything he told me to buy x and it went down but the point is you wouldn't know what to do because you don't know why you bought in the first place so please stay with what you know and you will be extremely successful and you will be very very rich someday if you want to be successful and if you love investing you obviously love something because that's your passion well follow that and that will lead you to successful investing in this clip jim rogers advises those who want total financial freedom he states that if you want to get rich it's better to invest in an industry that you are familiar with and passionate about he further adds that he is against taking advice from financial gurus even himself and reiterates his point about sticking with what you know in this next point jim rogers discusses the factors that may lead to the upcoming bear market there's so much pessimism around right now going that i'm usually when there's this much pessimism something happens to cause a big rally and the rally is big because everybody's pessimistic i mean for instance if we had peace in ukraine the market would go through the roof for a while and that's i hope that's when i would start shorting in a much bigger way my plan is that if we have a last rally a blow off a blow-off rally then i'll be smart enough to short it this is not my first rodeo you're right jordan i've been here before uh a difference in now in the 70s you mentioned some similarities well in the 1970s the united states was still a creditor nation as a whole uh now we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world so there are more differences and the debt i mean look out the window jordan the debt is staggering all over the world not just in the u.s what they're doing in japan is is mind-boggling it's so absurd but that's happening many places so it's going to be bad we're going to have bear markets whether we like it or not i know there's some people who say ah you're just scaring trying to scare us no i'm not i'm telling the facts of history we've always had bear markets and we always will have bear markets and one should know that if you don't know that probably you should not be investing and you should be prepared that's all i'm suggesting you can watch jordan and and get prepared for what's coming and if you're prepared you will probably do well or you'll certainly survive and you might even make a lot of money right i don't like the fact that we're going to have a horrible bear market but i have to be prepared or i'll get wiped out too the market today is still down about 40 i'd have to look up exactly from its all-time high you're right i mean it's been a nightmare in japan the japanese market made its high in 1990.
that's not a typo 1990. 32 years ago now they're not many markets in the world that you can say that about my gosh it's been down for 32 years if that's the case in japan so one these things can happen and do happen and when we have big bear markets a lot of people get hurt my point was that yes when you look at historic bear markets let's say agriculture you know agriculture didn't just go down four years and have a big bull market or many things japan for instance the point is that the real bear market you may have big rallies a industry or a company may go around for four or five years and have a big rally but then it usually has a re-test and it takes years to wipe out or clean out the excess capacity in most industries or the lack of demand and then you can have a law when i call a bull market somewhere you can just buy it and put it away and go to the beach where you don't have to worry about it that's what i meant by serious bear markets and that they last a long time not all of them of course i mean amazon didn't stay down for 15 10 or 15 years when it collapsed long ago but some many things usually do jim rogers explains how the current situation in the u.s economy is different from the 1970 economic climate wherein inflation reached extreme levels he highlights the immense amount of debt the u.s has today and how it turned from a creditor nation to the largest debtor nation jim says bear markets are inevitable and investors must prepare for them he also briefly touched on the economic situation of japan and how its economy has failed to return to its all-time high in 1990 over 30 years ago the most important takeaway from this is to be prepared for the upcoming bear market so how does this bear market compared to the previous ones like during and after world war ii between now and world war ii also uh yes things were bad obviously whenever you wrote something like world war ii and america built up a lot of debt but america also had huge assets saved up because of the depression and because of the war we had huge savings in the system at household level even government level there were huge savings that people could then deploy even though there was a lot of huge government debt and there was a lot of excess capacity because of the war because of the depression and because of the war people couldn't be using excess capacity to build cars or tv radios or whatever it was so there again there are differences that debt was huge but it was offset by very large savings that had been built up over during the depression and during the second world war and so after the war people could start spending their savings and there was enough capacity excess capacity in the system that there wasn't a huge amount of inflation but we had a an ideal period nobody likes to think of the war but after the war it was somewhat ideal since we won the war but even the countries that lost the war you know they too had when asked about the economy during world war ii compared to the present economy jim rogers stated that although the u.s had built up a considerable amount of debt in both periods the u.s had plenty of reserve assets during world war ii because it was fresh from a depression and of course the war consumers then spent all these savings after the war so inflation was not too bad ironically the war provided investment opportunities for all countries involved even the ones who lost according to jim rogers in his next point jim rogers returns to his advice for new investors yes people need to learn about investing they need to learn about saving and investing everybody does but jordan yes you can say all right you buy an index one so you can start to see what this is all about my advice would be no wait until you've done a lot more homework and then you decide that you want to start with an index fund don't listen to some guy unless you know what an index fund is and how they work and why that might be a wise decision don't do that just wait right jordan they're going to be many many investment opportunities anybody who's 25 or even 55 are going to be many investment opportunities in their lifetime don't hurry be patient right the best thing i will tell you is something that i have said before is just wait until you see some money over there in the corner lying on the floor all you got to do is go over and pick it up that's how you get rich just wait wait till you see something that you think anyway is going to be a sure thing and when you see the sure thing because you know what you're doing then invest in this last clip jim rogers makes two critical points regarding investing number one is to do your homework like in his first advice he reiterates that you must study diligently and be knowledgeable about your investment this way you will know when the perfect time to invest this second he says to be patient according to jim there will be plenty of investment opportunities in each of our lifetime the key is to be patient about when to enter the market to sum it all up he says study and be patient wait until you find the perfect opportunity to invest in a field that you are very knowledgeable about to summarize it all in this section of the podcast jim rogers first gave crucial financial advice for those looking to invest in markets the main point he was conveying is to stick with what you are familiar with in this way you are confident in making your investments second he explains the main difference between the current state of the economy and its state back in the 70s which is the amount of debt the us is taking on compared to before the u.s is taking on a staggering amount of debt jim also advises investors to prepare themselves for the upcoming bear market third he talks about the economy during and after world war ii and why inflation wasn't that bad during that period this is mainly due to a significant amount of reserve assets because people were not spending any money during the depression that preceded the war lastly he gives final advice on investing jim rogers says to study and wait patiently for the perfect time to enter your chosen market what did you think of jim rogers view on the future of the economy did you find his advice useful for your future investments give us ]
Comments 0