저자: Stock Sense · 외국인
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thank you I think the forming and breaking of the great bubbles are really the only thing that really matters in equity management rest of the time show up keep your nose clean make a point or to lose a point or two it doesn't really matter but once in a blue moon typically every 20 years but more recently a little more frequently than that you have these bubbles they form over a number of years they dominate everything and then they break and once again they dominate everything it really does matter and if you can bring yourself to sidestep some of the pain it can make a lot of difference I don't think the bubbles are hard to spot but that is my specialty I look at the handful of Real McCoy bubbles the type that have really crazy investment Behavior that have masses of enthusiasm and they stand out like a sorter 1929 the 2000 Tech bubble the 2007 housing bubble in the U.S Japan in 1989 both land and housing and the stock market probably the biggest bubbles of both the equity market and the real estate market in the history of map so they are The Real McCoy and then there's an interesting almost case of 1972 and Nifty 50.
it didn't go quite as high and it wasn't quite as silly but it was on the cusp of oil crises and so on so that it went down a whole lot it went down every bit as much as some of the others a 62 decline adjusted for inflation in 1973-74 still the biggest decline since the 1930s so that's my universe and we have checked off all of the indicators that are unique to those handful of events crazy behavior check check the Bitcoins of the world and the cryptocurrencies the meme stocks of the AMC GameStop variety I could even add my Quantum scape very rapid acceleration the prior year in 2020 where the NASDAQ more than doubled in the year and even from the beginning pre-covered was up almost 60 percent despite a huge Wipeout from covert so rapid acceleration is a characteristic you have to see crazy behavior you have to see and then there is a unique and special case and that is on the upside the Blue Chips start to win and the stocks with very high volatility that normally go up one and a half or two times Blue Chips they don't even get the sign right and they start to go down 1929 the specs the really crazy stocks went down all year little known fact but they did the day before the crash they were down 30 as an index nothing like that happened again until 1972 1972 in the nifty 50 the s p went up 17 and the average Big Board start went down 17 so that I could remember it forever symmetry nothing like that happened again until 2000 and then in 2000 in the tech bubble the dot-coms peeled off in March and really collapsed and then through the summer the junior growth the medium grows and then finally the senior growth all peeled off and by the early fall most of them were down 50 and some of the dot-coms were down a lot more but the s p was unchanged which meant that the 70 that was not growth had gone up 18 so the s p Blue Chips had gone up 18 and the growth and the NASDAQ and the dot-coms had taken a very big hit that is absolutely classic now starting early last year one by one the various most speculative groups that had done brilliantly in 2020 started to do bad bubbles have nothing to do very very little to do with the underlying reality and then the meme stock started March April and um Bitcoin April May June and so on and then one by one most of the advanced techie stocks started to come down and Arc um peaked out a couple of months later and has of course declined 75 Park is the whole portfolio of 25 growth stocks that often have no earning but do have at least in the portfolio managers I believe huge prospects that kind of stock is very vulnerable to a loss of confidence and therefore it started the decline a prettier and continues today right into the teeth of the cell so this Market has been preceding eerily like 2000 and I think phase one superficially you have a 2 000 checkbook horribly overpriced much too much enthusiasm huge buy-in by individuals fueled by a massive program of cash distribution associated with covet bailout a lot of that found its way into the stock market so this was Sensational so that's phase one phase two which I really worry about is this whole thing morphing into what I call the 1970s underlying inflation as an everyday topic once again it may not be spiking in the 70s it came and went came and went came it was always of the background discussion and that's what I think it will be now for quite a long time several years and similarly interest rates were always a worry in the 1970s and they will be a worry quite a few years to come beyond that longer term I worry that we are fairly deep into running out of the cheapest most available resources I think that turning point was 2002.
between 1900 and 2002 the average important commodity came down 70 in real price adjusted for inflation and we keep our own index at GMO 36 most important equal weighted Commodities this is not dominated by oil this is looking at the breadth of what is happening to Commodities and then if you look at that again today it is not down 70 percent it was down 10 since 1900 a rounding it so it's gone from down 70 or 30 on an index basis to 90.
it has tripled since 2002 the average important commodity has tripled in real terms since 2002. and I think this is an important problem going forward we haven't done any capex there are no great reserves of copper lithium Cobalt nickel Etc waiting to crush onto the market and yet we need them to Green the economy we're simply going to run light of these Metals we need technology to design a way around them new batteries that don't use so much recycling techniques to save what we have etc etc that's around the world as we see in the Ukraine with Russia an unstable situation such as this that we are likely to see with food does not bode well the other thing we have to bear in mind is that the developed World in China beginning to run out of people in any developed country except Israel we're not replacing our people and nor is China we're all collectively having a fertility rate as we sit of about 1.6 and we need 2.1 to replace so each cohort that babies is running now about a quarter of below replacement so if you're running out of Labor and and we have been for quite a few years that we know that the cohorts of 20 year olds starting now will be declining guaranteed over the next 20 years so you have a shortage of Labor which feels inflationary you have a shortage of cheap plentiful resources Metals food which builds inflationary and and you have a very tricky complicated situation on which we could spend an hour on energy as we try and transition from fossil fuels to green and we will be lucky if that is not inflationary it may not be but it may so all in all we Face some very intractable inflationary problems that we have not faced we've been squeezing our labor since 75.
that's 25 35 47 years and a lot of that is not profitable in any way they are losing the ability to be healthy viable members of the economic Society some of them and if you look at the growth rate of the U.S economy yes it's had a very flashy top 10 cent the fangs are brilliant Enterprises probably a better handful of companies than we ever had at any time before in terms of their unique ability to move fast and make new ideas but if you look down further down the system you find the level of new Enterprises undertaken in the U.S way down the number of people in companies one or two years old is half of what it was in the 1970s as per capita basis we're simply not as broadly adventurous and capitalistic as we used to be why not well for one thing there are no Capital reserves you can't even raise enough money to start a barber shop you ask how much money do you have in reserve and a third of Americans can't put together 500 you know this is not a healthy healthy system that we've developed and the growth rate of the US economy has slowed More Than People realize that the productivity component has slowed down from 1.8 to about 0.9 for the last 15 years 0.9 now it's still semi-dignified but 1.8 compounds a whole lot better and and the problem there is you add to productivity you add the increase in the workforce and back in the 60s you were adding one and a half percent a year to the workforce in the next 20 years we'll be lucky if we only subtract 0.2 percent so we've had an enormous drop of 1.7 a year in labor and maybe more and we've had a pretty steady drop of 0.9 in productivity so this is indicative that all is not healthy and I think these Central poison to the system is a blinding increase in inequality and to just quote some of the cliches 1965 your average CEO of Fortune 500 made 40 times the average worker which seems quite a lot really when you think about it 40 times the family income and now it's 300 and it peaked higher and that really is sounds pretty obscene to me now back in Japan they were about 40 in 1965.
they're about 40 today they had no rules on that topic this is social contract another thing that happens when you get more inequality our Ginny ratio which is a measure of income inequality has moved to dead last amongst the developed World we're now fighting it out with the mexicos and brazils and Russia's this is not right and a high Ginny ratio is strongly positively associated with the social contract the social contract is simply your expectation that you can depend on your neighbors and that you owe your name that's the social contract and the Scandinavians still have it Japan has it big and the South Koreans and the Canadians not too badly but ours has gone to hell back when we were in equal Society during the 30s and into the 40s thank heavens we had to fight World War II when the social contract was in good shape people really felt they owed the city the corporations owed the city and individuals owned their country and their city and everybody owed everybody and that's the way it should be and it showed and productivity was huge and and general contentment was pretty high and since then the capital and the income has gravitated increasingly towards the top 10 percent the top one percent the top 0.1 percent I think the biggest shock is how much lower the minimum wages than it used to be in America as a fraction of economic income I mean what excuse can you say about that that the federal minimum wage is something like a half of what it was in the 1960s adjusted for inflation I mean this is just crazy and you should be also adjusted for the increased wealth of society so that's the very least you can do and yes of course I approve of a basic minimum living wage fifteen or twenty dollars an hour it is important but to get back to the main point you have to find a way of increasing equality once again that takes serious attitude a lot of people trying quite a few years it's moving the pendulum which has been swinging through Democratic and Republican regimes alike has been swinging towards the rich and you have to move it back a bit and you can do that through taxes you can do that through incentives you can do that through helping educate the poor on people education is always a killer antidote to anyone foreign
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