저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 연준의 저금리 정책과 인구·자원 제약으로 1970년대식 스태그플레이션 재진입 위험이 크다고 본다. 연준 평가: 연준은 시장 거품을 무시하고 저금리를 너무 오래 유지해 자산가격 상승과 불평등을 키웠으며, 성장률은 오히려 둔화됐다고 비판. 경기침체 전망: 침체가 오면 연준이 다시 금리를 내리고 주가 반등이 나올 수 있어 단기 랠리 가능성을 언급. 인플레이션 구조: 유가 급등(1970년대 오일쇼크 유사), 우크라이나 침공에 따른 식량·비료·천연가스 가격 상승을 원인으로 제시. 인구 구조: 주요 선진국과 중국의 출산율 급락으로 노동 공급이 줄고 고령 인구 부양 부담이 커진다고 지적. 자원 전망: 구리 등 광물의 품위 하락으로 채굴 에너지 비용이 크게 늘었고, 원자재 실질가격은 2002년 이후 3배 가까이 상승. 향후 수십 년간 스태그플레이션 압력 지속 전망. 결론적 시나리오: 인플레이션은 파도처럼 반복되며 중간 정도로 고착될 가능성이 높고, 최악은 본격적 고착화. 출연자 관점: 장기 구조적 인플레이션과 성장 둔화를 강조하며 단기 랠리 가능성은 열어둠. 리스크: 정부의 합리적 대응이 없을 경우 인플레이션 고착 위험.
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skyrocketing inflation and fears of an economic recession have been the talk of experts and regular investors alike consumers are anxious and fearful that this situation could turn into another Great Depression we've recently covered inflation and recession in a recent video today's economic climate has put everybody in a very precarious situation with fears of a living recession and unprecedented levels of inflation everybody is on edge so make sure you stick around to get an updated Insight on this investor Jeremy Grantham gave his analysis on the economic climate in a recent interview on the investors podcast Network listen in on what he has to say as he provides a very clear view of the state of the economy before we proceed we'd like to take this time to tell you how much we appreciate your support for our Channel and we'll be sure to continue providing informative content for everyone foreign to be behind the curve to be deep into optimism it doesn't really have a clue about market bubbles and the Damage they do when they break they've been eager now since early Greenspan to encourage bull markets because they help the economy they really do and they always forget that the bear markets to go along with them hurt the economy at just the wrong time if I'd been asked about would the FED get inflation wrong when inflation came along at any time I would have said of course they'll miss it they'll be late their responses will be pretty ill-judged the fed's record is terrible what is impressive is how much room they have been cut by the market I mean the market is incredibly forgiving to the fed the FED happened for 20 years 25 years to benefit from that amazing era as 500 million Chinese are raced into the big cities and were plugged from marginal farming into highly profitable industrial system and then they joined the World Trade Association and made everybody's stuffed dogs and everybody's iPhones for that matter during that that phase 500 million extra Chinese 200 million Eastern Europeans plugging into away from communism into capitalism that was a golden era golden blocks if ever there was one and the FED got to take credit for them a prime minister of England once Mr Wilson got re-elected because uh England unexpectedly won the world cup at soccer and he got credit for it I mean the president gets in the end credit for everything good weather um he takes he takes the shock for inflation these things are all way bigger than the president of the United States but the president and the FED gets to enjoy the environment so this bed had a wonderful environment they did nothing right but they but they were seen to be presiding over low inflation and decent growth the growth rate actually has slowed way down uh since Greenspan it was averaging three and a half before Greenspan and averaging two and a half afterwards and today more like one and a half it's done nothing in terms of increasing the growth rate but superficially it felt like a golden age because asset prices went up asset prices went up because inflation came down and raids were allowed to come down and in the end rates were forced out and low rates make a leverage uh cheap make private Equity deals wonderfully easy and profitable and and they push up the price of real estate and they push up the price of stocks and and that's the way it was when the FED gets good credit for that and is due now it's demerit a cruise from the fact that it kept on pushing down interest rates far too long and dangerously increasing inequality which is I like to say is the greatest poison in the system these days and it does damage the degree of inequality we have in the US now does damage the strength of the economy and it is probably part of the reason why the growth rate has slowed and continues to slow in this part of the podcast Jeremy Grantham pointed out the Federal Reserves series of wrong moves such as their unrealistically optimistic view on the economy and their ignorance of market bubbles that have proved fatal to dealing with inflation and the overall state of the economy he further discussed how the FED has done nothing right and that they set interest rates far too low which crippled the economy and continues to slow down its growth rate a lot of pressure is being put on the FED as every decision they make dictates the future of the economy and every mistake they commit could result in a repeat of the Great Depression every period is unique the 70s had problems with the oil crises you can call it one giant crisis or you can call it two or three but in any case it a triple quadruple quintuple the price of oil in a hurry we'd come off 50 years of a fairly stable low prices and they shot up and and stayed up for a long time and inflicted enormous pain on the system they lowered the growth rate why wouldn't it if you have to pay three four times for your energy and it also of course pushes up the price there's nothing like a an oil price increase to increase stagflation and it did and this time if you adjust for the passage of time the price of oil is not as high but it's still multiplied recently by three times so that is imposing a pain on consumption and is imposing inflationary pressure we also have because of the invasion of Ukraine we have a had some extra spikes in the price of food fertilizer and natural gas particularly in Europe interestingly they are now almost all of them lower in price than the day before The Invasion and this is a lovely example of how the stock market works the stock market is saying whoops there's so much damage from commodity price Rises uh etc etc that we're going to have a recession but the recession isn't bad news because the recession is going to get the FED back in in our camp of lowering interest rate types again and helping stock prices and we're looking out into the future and therefore that's a good news so the fear of a recession becomes a wishful thinking about future interest rates and so the market gets a reprieve for a while it's um it's quite remarkable but it's fairly typical and and that's what we're having now and that's why we might have a bit of a rally for a few weeks I think when asked whether the upcoming downturn will turn into another Great Depression Jeremy Grantham discussed the factors that have led to a rise in the prices of Commodities especially crude oil which also Rose during the Great Depression he discussed how the invasion of Ukraine also contributed to all this however he said that the upcoming recession might actually be good for the economy adding that it could result in low interest rates and a short rally in stock prices as the economy heads towards a recession inflation could make things far worse as it lowers the purchasing power of consumers and brings prices to unprecedented levels I think in the longer term to get the next few quarters who knows what happens really but in the longer term we are really running the risk that this is back to the 70s we have problems with the availability of plentiful cheap resources we have problems with plentiful to labor the um the birth rate has crunched in every developed country except Israel and and China and that's a very very important segment of the global economy to say the least and every one of them has a population growth rate lower than replacement level so in the end we accumulate after accumulating lots of older people as a higher and higher percentage we start to actually have the population drop secondly 10 and 20 years in depending on the country into having smaller baby cohorts so we know with absolute certainty since they're alive already the 20 year olds arriving in the marketplace will be fewer and fewer for the next 20 years and we have not experienced this before this has happened incredibly fast China has gone from Plenty of babies to a baby crunch almost overnight and fertility rate that needs to be 2.1 is probably running about 1.4 and even in the U.S the UK we're running about 1.7 we've never seen levels like this so we're going to have a hard time getting enough labor we're going to accumulate old people who are very resource intensive they need a lot of medical care they need a lot of people care and we're not going to have all that many people there the supply of people to look after as old fogies is is dropping steadily from now on for the rest of your life about for sure another same time I believe the correct interpretation of the commodity data is that it wasn't only the china shop the rapid growth rate for 30 years in China but it was also showing signs that the best and cheapest most plentiful resources had simply been mined or pumped and that we are running down into the second tier if you look at the copper ore for example King copper is really important to the industrial system over 80 90 years of the the amount of copper in a ton of law has dropped to a third of what it was so you're using an awful lot more energy and the energy also which used to run for 100 years or twenty dollars a barrel in today's currency now runs at 100.
so you're spending five times the cost of energy to mine one-third the quality of copper oil uh you you better believe technology can't keep up with that it did for a long time it did very very well but starting about 2002 the real price of the typical commodity has gone up a lot it's basically tripled in a hundred years it went from starting at 100 it went down to 30.
a brilliant help for getting rich and then from 2002 until today it's gone from 30 to 90. so over 122 years Commodities are just about flat adjusted for inflation and only 20 years ago they were down at 30 cents on the dollar this is a huge shift hasn't been nearly enough for us made about it but it's the direction that it's interesting to me the direction is steadily up now there's a lot of volatility in Commodities everybody knows you produce an extra ton and the price collapses and you're shorter turn on the price triples but if you look at the track the trend has been pretty reversible to be up since 2002 and my guess is it will come continue to rise and that will pose a real stagflationary pressure for a couple of decades and that's why I fear this is re-entering the 70s and 80s if you prefer it re-entering the 20th century once again so inflation will always be part of the discussion sometimes it will be low sometimes it will be higher but it will always be on the agenda the same with stagplation there will be pressure on growth that we have not had we have had a glorious honeymoon period for 20 years where raids always came down and where Chinese workers were always available and inflation was a thing of the past and it is no longer a thing of the past and unless we're lucky and have some sensible behavior from governments around the world this this inflation will go in little waves and will become moderately embedded at best and really embedded the worst Jeremy grantham's response to the possibility of a recession brought about by a lack of demand revolved around a lack of Labor due to diminishing fertility rates lack of cheap resources brought about by inflation and a combination of inflation and stagflation he says these factors may lead to a repeat of the economic situation in the 1970s Jeremy Grantham pointed out the fed's mistake of setting interest rates way too low which caused a Slowdown in the economy this according to Jeremy then brought about fears of an upcoming recession several similarities may be seen between the current state of the U.S economy and its state during the 1970s wherein Americans experience a decade of inflation what did you think of Jeremy grantham's analysis how do you plan on Surviving the upcoming downturn give us ]
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