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i mean the us has increased his debt by several times since 2009. japan oh my god they can't even count the debt in japan many countries in the world the debt just goes higher and higher and higher amidst the current state of the markets there are fears of a very ferocious market correction that could lead to the worst bear market the economy has ever seen author and investor jim rogers explained in a recent interview why he believes the upcoming bear market could be the worst in history stick around to the end of the video to gain much needed knowledge of the economy's status quo as a result of the unexpected economic rebound that followed the pandemic which has since produced considerable inflation jim rogers chairman of rogers holding and co-founder of quantum fund has joined the list of analysts warning of a bear market kidko news recently spoke with jim rogers about the current state of the economy as a whole in the stock market as a direct result of the speculative economic bubble that exists in each nation around the world roger stated that he anticipates the upcoming bear market to be the worst in his career and he bases his expectations on the astronomical quantities of debt that exist in the united states rogers made reference to his beliefs as being compatible with the austrian school of economics which bases its theory of the business cycle on the concept that that plays a central role according to this hypothesis when there is a surge in the value of the economy debt levels rise investors behave irresponsibly and the market price of enterprises is far higher than their true value once investors discover that they have taken on too much debt and that businesses are being overvalued a selloff will commence which will ultimately lead to a collapse in the market roger stated that it had been 13 years since we had a major debt crisis and also that the markets had not reacted in the way he had expected with the highest debt in u.s history the economy is long overdue for a correction and it is apparent from past experience that anytime such a location arises the economy declines significantly at the moment the national debt of the united states is over 30 trillion dollars and the debt to gdp ratio is 125 percent several economists argue that a debt level that is greater than 90 of gdp is detrimental to the expansion of the economy despite predicting the very worst bear market jim rogers stated that a favorable change in russia-ukraine relations and a move to settle the ukraine war might produce a large stock surge nevertheless he cautioned that even if a rebound were to materialize it would be succeeded by a severe market meltdown it's good to see you but you are the bearer of bad news saying that the situation for u.s equities is about to get a lot worse how much worse well what i have said is we're going to have more bear markets we've always had bear markets now in washington they say no we're not everything is okay now no more bear market if you believe them don't listen to me but i know more bear markets are coming and what i have said is the next one is going to be the worst in my lifetime maybe we're in the minute now i i don't know you should watch kitko news to find out 2008 we had a problem with too much debt michelle since 2008 the debt oh my god look out the wonder the debt is skyrocket everywhere so the next bear market has to be horrible well assuming we're in one right now and we know that the s p 500 is already down 20 so sure looks like we are the ones that you have referred to as being the worst in your lifetime the s p fell by at least 50 percent so by that calculation we still have at least another 30 to go down here but before this bear market is over of course many stocks are going to go down 70 80 90 percent that's the way bear markets work no of course that's going to happen i just don't know when it is watch kitko news they will tell you well that's why we have you on fit confused so it's going to be worse because we have even more debt in the system first of all it's been 13 years since we've had big problems and that's the longest in american history could go for 30 years who knows who knows but it's already overdue on a historic basis and it's very very expensive and it always goes down a lot when it goes down we have very high valuations we have staggering debt we have a lot of new investors coming in michelle it's not my first rodeo i've seen this movie i know how it works they're all going to lose a lot of money i hope i'm not one of them well jim i'm not sure washington disputes that we're in a bear market hard to dispute that when the s p 500 is down 20 percent so by technical definition we're in a bear market but i do get your point that many in washington aren't acknowledging that we're in a recession although we may very well already be in one second quarter gdp estimates expected to be negative so then again by the technical definition two quarters of negative growth we are in a recession but to your point many in washington haven't quite come to terms with that or admitted that but what is your outlook at large especially as the fed tightens more aggressively i wish i could quote you all of the times washington and said we're not in a recession when we were they didn't even know it that the recession didn't start them and likewise central bank people my outlook is that if we have peace if something there's a lot of pessimism around right now huge amounts of pessimism whenever there's a lot of pessimism it often leads to a rally if something happens in ukraine there'll be a big rally oil will go down cranes will go down stocks and everything will go up for a while i don't know what will cause the rally but we're probably going to have a big rally that rally is i hope i was smart enough to sell that rally because that's probably the last big rally it could be very big rally but that's probably the last time and that would or could be triggered by a resolution to the conflict in the war in ukraine is what you could see as the possible trigger for a rally the obvious for me would be if something happens in ukraine i have no idea i don't have any inside information but if something happens that would cause a big route but you're saying we're currently in a bear market but not necessarily the one that you anticipate will be the worst in your lifetime when it's worse in my lifetime you'll know it it's not now it's we're not in the middle of it now this is not the worst bear mark in my life this is nothing this is nothing oh my gosh you should have i have seen some astonishing bear markers not just in the u.s all over the world you don't think that we're in the beginning of the worst bear market of your lifetime to define it that way yes but if there were peace we might make new highs but still that would not negate the bear market all right so we're in a bear market we could still see a rally on positive diplomatic developments out of russia ukraine but ultimately we're still owed another huge bear market worse than anything we've seen before even if it's not this one if i may recap how can it not be a horrible bear market you know what the debt has happened i mean the u.s has increased his debt by several times since 2009.
japan oh my god they can't even count the debt in japan many countries in the world the debt just goes higher and higher and higher 2008 was because of too much debt it's much worse now well it's apologies for the wobbly table here jim it's much like the economy it's wobbly like the economy so you were correct that you said that this unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus was going to cause inflation you said that uh in march of 2021 when you were on the show now we've hit 9.1 percent a new high over the last 40 years what is it going to take to tame this inflation to fix it for no they're not they don't know how to fix it the only thing michelle in 2000 sorry in 1980 interest rates on treasury bills u.s treasury bills were over 20 percent that's not a typo 20 it cured inflation and solved the problem finally no because we've made so many mistakes this time around interest rates will have to go very very high we will have a serious recession many people will go bankrupt we're going to have a lot of problems there's no other way to solve the problem other than to have double-digit vulcaresque type of interest rate hikes we could have we have a choice we could raise interest rates a lot and have a lot of pain or we let people continue to print money and have horrible horrible inflation and cause even more pain there's not much not many choices well we've had uh the likes of art laffer and stephen moore on the show and they're saying that if you take a supply-side economic approach and you cut taxes for example that we could get out of the situation without a recession or certainly not one as ugly as would need to be to tame interest rates by just increasing to tame inflation by just increasing interest rates i am all for cutting taxes it's always better for any country any economy the fewer taxes the better but if our if steve thinks they can pull that off by all means but if we cut taxes we're going to have big push into the economy but while these guys are printing money it's just going to make inflation worse we i don't know how we solve the problem of too much inflation without pain right well and there is a call for even more stimulus by the biden administration democrats wanting to get through a watered-down version of the buildback better plan so that certainly is gonna perhaps uh or definitely pour more gasoline on onto the fire there so jim what can an investor do in this environment well first of all investors should only invest in what they themselves know a lot about they shouldn't listen to hot tips on tv even on kitco news that's a terrible way to invest stay with what you know i can tell you some of the things i'm doing when you have inflation if you own the things that go up in price you make money i mean agricultural goods are going to go higher before this is over energy will go higher before it's over everything will go higher before it's over real good if you own those kind of things you will do well if you know how to sell short then you can sell short many things many stocks not just in america all over the world and make a lot of money if you don't know how to do either of those put your money in the bank and wait it's better to earn one percent per year than to lose 20 per year and bear markets lead to big losses can you stay in cash in such an inflationary environment sure the interest rates will go high enough one thing about interest rates in inflation they will eventually go high enough to offset the effects of inflation well in in terms of the outlook of the imf the international monetary fund they think that inflation globally will likely be tamed by next year when rate hikes start to work the imf saying that global interest rates will keep rising until 2023 and then heated prices will begin to cool in response to actions from central banks do you agree i've been investing a long time i have never known the imf to be fighting about anything i don't even bother i mean the best thing we could all do is abolish the imf we're not because there are too many people who make money off the imf they've never been right about anything that would be a way towards solving some of our problems we abolish their imf the world bank what we'd be on the way we spend on the world bank and the imf every year huge amounts of money all those guys that are bureaucratic work they love working for the imf they get tax-free pensions they get high high salaries they get all sorts of perks they think it is heaven you know who's paying for it yeah us well taxpayers in the u.s global taxpayers just to play devil's advocate here don't we need uh global bodies to coordinate things on the world stage it would be wonderful if you can get a good one do it i am if ain't it you should go back and read some of the imf's annual reports some of the things they have said and you would be stunned stunned at how many times they said southeast asia's great and then the next year there's a gigantic crisis in southeast asia i could go on and on well i know the imf has taken a very aggressive position against bitcoin certainly no fans of bitcoin and you have in the past said that you would have bought bitcoin at a dollar or five dollars that's that's a quote from an interview you had um with the economic times of india bitcoin not quite that low but is on sale 70 down from its all-time high would you buy bitcoin out no no what i said was i wish i had bought bitcoin at a dollar for five dollars michelle i wish i'd bought ibm in 1914.
i wish i'd done a lot of things i wish i'd bought amazon at a dollar all i said was i wish well you you can't have it at a dollar or five dollars now although hopefully not hopefully it doesn't drop to that level but is there a level that you would buy bitcoin at there's no level at which i would buy those crypto currencies unless something dramatic changes no answers no what would be something dramatic well i guess if suddenly the eu used bitcoin as its national of global currency then you would have to and it's no longer cryptocurrency it's a computer currency backed by governments bitcoin is wonderful for people who buy it and sell it and trade it i know people who are having fun trading it nothing wrong with that but if it ever becomes successful as currency which they say it will no government's going to allow that nobody no government wants to lose its control they all love their monopoly they're not going to give up their monopoly i wish they would but they aren't all right not a fan of bitcoin but you've always been a fan of agriculture and last time you were on the show you said that a good inflation hedge was uh the rogers uh agricultural index it did perform well it did drop over the last month or so still up about two percent year to date why are we seeing a sell-off in agriculture now nothing goes straight up or straight down things go up like this there are always corrections along the way and maybe there's something else going on but in my experience corrections are normal and common they happen all the time so is investing in agriculture still a wise move if you're trying to hedge it against this current inflation my answer is yes but my plan is if there's peace in ukraine agriculture is going to go down all grain prices are going to go down for a while and that's the time to buy what is the likelihood of peace in ukraine over the next year or so if you were to prognosticate how this plays out i would say the chances are very good it's a foolish war all wars are foolish but i mean mr biden's not getting mr putin not getting anything out of it the cranes aren't getting anything out of i don't see that it's doing anybody any good uh and mr biden i miss putin may get what he wants or at least part of what he wants and then things would calm down but listen i don't have any inside information on a man a seasoned man of the world with insights across the globe so always like to get your thoughts on things i would suspect that there will be some positive development in ukraine in the next few weeks yeah if not before wow in the next few weeks and that would trigger a relief rally that would trigger a drop big drop in grains a big drop in oil which would cause a big relief rally in stocks because everybody would say inflation's okay now no more problems hooray buy stocks buy bots what did you think of jim rogers's point of view what do you expect from this upcoming bear market that the economy is about to go through give us you
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