Michael Burry's crazy portfolio - he is all in in Chinese stocks

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마이클 버리 포트폴리오 분석. 중국주(알리바바·JD·바이두) 비중이 약 45%로 높고, 중국 기업 재무신뢰성에 대한 회의적 시각을 제시. 신규 편입 종목(Shift4 Payments, Molina Healthcare, Hudson Pacific, Olaplex, Batala 등)의 펀더멘털을 분석하며, 버리의 최근 판단이 여러 번 틀렸다고 평가. 전반적으로 이 포트폴리오는 본인이 구성하고 싶은 형태가 아니라고 결론.

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01. in today's video I'm going to analyze Michael Bar's portfolio as you know Michael Barry is a little bit crazy and his portfolios are even crazier so today it's going to be interesting it's going to be fun to watch at is investing choices before we start if you want to help me please remember to leave a like And subscribe to my YouTube channel if you're new let's talk about Bar's portfolio first of all we have to say that he's all in in China around 45% of his portfol is invested in Chinese stocks indeed his number one position is Alibaba which is 21% of his portfolio he also has by do and jd.com but he reduced his jd.com position of around 30% but still these two positions are each worth around 12% of the portfolio for those who don't know my idea regarding Chinese stocks is still the same you can't really trust this comp companies you can't trust their financial statements therefore investing in them is a big no you can't really invest in them because their numbers can't really be trusted as you can see Bar's second position is shift for payments worth almost 14% of the portfolio this is a company which provides software and payment processing Solutions in the United States and internationally the company is still fairly small and high growth with a market cap of5 billion as you can see Revenue grew a lot in the past few years and the compan is still growing margins are not that great but they are getting much better in the last 12 months IIT margin was 7.4% not too bad but not a big number and as you can see also return ratios are not that great cash flow is not too bad with a free cash flow margin of around 10% the analyst estimates are fairly optimistic as you can see they expect very good growth in future years and they even expect an improvement in a bit margin in my opinion this company is very hard to Value there is nothing predictable in this company yet they are growing a lot but margins are not that great so it's very hard to make projections on this type of company personally I usually don't invest in this type of companies but the growth is really impressive nothing to say about that you also got another new position Molina Healthcare which is an Healthcare company and this wor around 14% of the portfolio as well also this one has been growing pretty well in the past few years but margins are very low as you can see bit margin has been 4.4% in the last 12 months and it hasn't been that much better in past few years return ratios instead are very good the valuation seems reasonable at a for Price earnings ratio of 13.5 it's not an alltime low but it's not high either if we consider analyst estimates the future of the company is not that unbelievable for 2026 they expect a gap PPS of 28.5 so if we give it a 15 price earnings ratio the stock would reach $426 us right now the stock is at 348 so not a very high upside then he has bud.com of which we already talked about and then you got HPP Hudson Pacific prop is a real estate company which recently bought and is 10% of the portfolio I don't know how to analyze real estate companies so I'm not even going to talk about this one but if you know something about it please let me know in the comment section then he has the real real which reduced by 29% and he has an insurance company American castal insurance which is 5% of the portfolio and then he has two recently bought positions olaplex and batla worth respectively three and 1.6% of the portfolio Olex has really been on a wild ride since it got on the stock market as you can see the stock lost 92% of its value in just a little bit less than three years this was a darling in the Beauty World indeed the company manufactures and sells her products and the company was doing just amazing its products were beloved by a lot of clients but then some doubts were reisen about their products and revenues got it big time down 35% in 2023 also operating margins got much worse they were unbelievable before but they fell around 50% in 2023 so the compan is having a really hard time recently the valuation could seem low with a for Price standings ratio of around 13 but it depends on how it's going to perform because it's not doing well and who knows how it's going to go it's going to be fairly hard to fix their bad name right now so it's a fairly risky play and finally batla is a biotech company which has a lot of cash as you can see the Enterprise Value is much lower than the market cap the problem is that the company is not profitable they burn a lot of cash and right now they have total cash and short-term Investments of 60 million and they have no depbt the problem is that they burn around 100 million of free cash flow every single year so if they keep going this way the compan is going bust so overall I don't really like Michael Bar's portfolio that's not a kind of portfolio I would build but we'll see how it will perform for him lately he has made many wrong decisions let me know what you think about his portfolio type a comment and please remember to leave a like And subscribe to my YouTube channel if you're new see you next time bye