저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
요약 보기
Morgan Stanley의 AMD 다운그레이드 배경을 설명하며 AMD 선행 PER 약 29배는 매력적이라 봄(AMD는 2번째 포지션). ARM은 단기 과열로 고평가 우려, CEO의 2029년 PC 점유율 50% 전망에는 회의적. TSMC는 제조업체라 폭발적 성장은 어렵고 ETF 선호, 가격 인상이 엔비디아 마진엔 영향이 적고 AMD·Qualcomm 등 경쟁사에 부담이 될 것으로 봄. CoWoS 캐파 확대 대비 SoIC 격차로 AMD의 올해 성장 제약 언급.
다듬은 글
welcome back to another episode today we're going to take a closer look at Nvidia and a lot of semiconductor news impacting various companies we're going to look at AMD arm tsmc and maybe some other companies that I might kind of think out throughout the video so let's get started with ooir so the first thing we're going to take a closer look at is AMD AMD was down roughly 4.5% sitting at $160 and the main reason it seems like AMD stock falls on Morgan Stanley downgrade and most of the thing is they believe that the AI bar remains high for AMD and it's kind of creating a very very high valuation for the stock so if we take a closer look at just PE ratio real quick for AMD I actually have the opposite it thought of of AMD right now if we take a closer look at PE ratio forward for this year is 45 so I agree for this year but forward is the end of this fiscal year which ends in about 6 months from now now forward one year which is the next fiscal year it drops down to 29 now while I believe with this Morgan Stanley I agree that maybe in the short term right now the valuation or its PE ratio is pretty extended I want to say in the long term of things this is not going to be an Nvidia let me just preface with that I don't believe this is going to be an Nvidia but I do believe they will be able to grab a nice amount of Revenue growth from the AI accelerator market and for them sitting at that valuation of 4D one year of 28.9 I think it's actually looking pretty pretty attractive uh AMD is my second position and by I if those are curious the difference between my number one and my number two is insane it's not even close I would never make AMD kind of the size of my Nvidia position but I do believe AMD has huge potential especially at these price points right now and I just released a video earlier today where I took a closer look at some of the new products AMD announced so check that out so you can hear my overall thoughts on why I believe the market is maybe underestimating AMD again that just because the market is underestimating AMD I don't want to make it seem like that's a bearish case for NVIDIA I just think this Market is so huge that even Nvidia continuing to dominate AMD can definitely benefit as well so um Morgan Stanley we can see from this report says that they like the AMD story but investors expectations for the AI business still seems too high for them now outside of that we do have another investor or another analysts uh that adjusted their price Target on AMD to 200 from 185 before we go any further we are now on the road to 50,000 subscribers by the end of the year thank you all for the crazy support So if you haven't and are enjoying the content make sure to hit the thumbs up and the Subscribe button finally if you want to support the channel a little bit more make sure to check out my special offer at full.com Jose now back to today's episode now the second thing I want to take a closer look at is arm so arm is doing amazing we can see the stock is sitting at 139 year-to date the stock has has doubled right so congratulations to all arm Holdings I'm personally on the other Spectrum here of arm where I do believe this one is a little bit too overvalued compared to the overall excitement um but there's a few things that we have from arm Holdings the first thing is there were reports that the CEO during the computex event um or during kind of a uh interview during that time mentions that he believes that arm will take over 50% of the Windows PC market share by 2029 I think right now in forms of the PC market it's very very low um the biggest market share of arm is Apple who owns about I I believe somewhere around 10% of the market and we know Apple has been a big player um right now Qualcomm does have an exclusive deal with Microsoft for Windows AIP PCS I don't believe that's going to be the reason where we're going to get 50% I do believe arm is going to gain market share here in the PC market but I don't think it's going to be 50% within the next 5 years I think that's a little bit hopeful um but let me know you uh in this in the comments below do you believe that is actually possible there are some reports earlier today that arm and Qualcomm have some legal paddles that might be disrupting the AI powered PC race that's definitely something to take a closer look at and something to keep a closer eye on for the upcoming days next we're going to jump here into tsmc so tsmc another big player here in the semiconductor manufact semiconductor space they are the manufacturing Giants the stock year to dat has done pretty well up 65.
63% so TSM I am personally not a fan of them as a single investment I would rather own a semiconductor ETF um but obviously there is a lot of excitement for tsmc because they manufacture all the chips that are pretty much in the AI market like nvidia's h100 h200 in the lisos so on and on the main thing for me though is tsmc at the end of the day is still a manufacturing company so if they do raise prices and that's something we're going to take a closer look at it's not ever going to be something crazy dramatic in my opinion that can really help this company destroy Revenue growth right to some I I believe tsmc's Revenue projections are always going to be somewhere in line with or very close within the range of what analysts expect because right they are a Manufacturing Company you know there supply chain you know kind of the products that they can make it kind of helps investors know and project what this company can do in forms of Revenue so you will never see this company in my opinion see massive gains like a company like Nvidia and like I mentioned for TSM instead of kind of having all that stress I would rather just own a ETF and just kind of curious right TS uh TSM was up about 65% um year-to dat as SMH up 51% this is a semiconductor ETF so obviously tsmc is outperforming this but not by much uh as we can see uh but tsmc did kind of give some great returns they give us monthly numbers on form Revenue that monthly number was up 30% year over-year uh again probably fueled by a lot of things especially the inventory correction H um that's easing in kind of like the smartphone business in the PC market and obviously the AI chips within themselves now the other thing I want to take a closer look at tsmc is late last week we did hear that tsmc is planning on increasing their price um for their manufacturing push and we did hear that Nvidia CEO Jensen kind of supports this idea I mean at the end of the day this like I mentioned for a Manufacturing Company you're going to increase the cost but if you're selling your chips at a high price it's really m not going to do much and I think that's what um Jensen is kind of happy he's like hey look you're going to raise your prices we already sell chips at crazy valuations it's not like you're going to increase the price by 100% And even if you do it really won't eat too much on our margins but what it's going to do is we know that our competitors are not selling their chips at a high price point so they are actually going to see a nice impact of these price increases so I think Jensen is actually thinking many steps ahead or maybe I'm just thinking that Jensen is thinking many steps ahead you got me there um because that's how if I was the CEO of a company and I was like hey look you're going to increase the manufacturing cost of these Advanced chips go for it I already sell my chips at crazy crazy price hikes my competitors like AMD like Intel sell their AI chips pretty much at some form of value nowhere near my price point so I know that a price hike will impact them more than it would impact me and this is actually what this reporter was mentioned that he doesn't they they don't believe that Nvidia will really take much of a hit here in forms of gross margins but other companies like TS like apple AMD and Qualcomm who don't have that huge price increase or premium on their chips might actually see some impact on Gross margins another great thing about this article that I think was important is tsmc we are seeing updates that their coas monthly capacity could reach around 45,000 to 50,000 way from first by the end of this year on a monthly basis that is the advanced packaging that Nvidia uses for their h100 and h200 and the most like and the Blackwell Solutions as well now the other one s OIC this is only expected to be around 5,000 to 6,000 Wafers by the end of the year so we can see the difference between coas and so soic is a huge difference um that by marginal almost a 10x different and for those that are not familiar s OIC is the advanced packaging that AMD uses so we can definitely see why AMD even this year won't really see much of that Revenue growth like Nvidia because in forms of production they can't even match to the level of Nvidia right now so I pretty that's pretty much all I have for today's episode I hope you guys enjoyed it let me know what are your thoughts on AMD let me know what are your thoughts on tsmc do you think I'm over thinking what Jensen is thinking about that multiple steps ahead or do you think I might be in his brain right now let me know in the comments below and peace out
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