Ken Fisher Explores What President Biden’s Potential Tax Hikes Might Mean for Stocks

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결론: 바이든 행정부의 증세 우려는 과거 역사상 증세 후 주가가 평균보다 긍정적이었던 만큼 과도하게 걱정할 필요가 없다는 주장. 증세 우려의 배경: 상원 50표+부통령 캐스팅보트로 조정(reconciliation) 절차를 통해 대규모 증세가 추진될 수 있고, 하원은 민주당 거의 전원 찬성이 필요한 상황(218 대 212, 공석 6석)이라고 설명. 과거 역사 분석: 개인소득세, 자본이득세, 법인세 등 연방 차원의 증세·감세 사례가 장기간 축적되어 있음. 증세 이후 6·12·18·24개월 주가 흐름을 보면 평균 주식시장 대비 약 20% 더 긍정적인 결과가 나타났다고 주장(추가 수익률이 아니라 양(+)의 기간 비율이 약 20% 더 높다는 의미). 일반적으로 주식시장 상승 확률은 약 3분의 2 수준. 주가에 선반영되는 이유: 증세 논의·입법 과정(찬반 토론, 칭찬과 비난)이 길게 이어지는 동안 시장이 미리 가격에 반영해 법안 통과 전 주가를 억누르고, 법안 확정 후에는 그 압박이 해소되는 '눌린 스프링' 효과로 사후 성과가 강하다는 논리. 리스크/조건: 개인이나 기업의 실물 경제 측면에서는 증세가 실제로 타격을 줄 수 있음을 인정하지만, 자본시장 관점에서는 과거 유사 사례와 선반영 효과로 크게 우려할 대상이 아니라는 입장. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 매수·매도 언급, 목표가, 기간별 가격 예측은 없음. 출연자 전망: 증세 발표 후 시장의 사후 긍정적 흐름을 기대하는 낙관적 시각이나, 구체적 수치 예측은 제시하지 않음.

다듬은 글

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01. i i'd like to speak to you for a few minutes about a very very common fear that i'm asked about often which is if the current administration is able to put through big tax hikes uh perhaps through reconciliation uh with just 50 votes and the swing vote of the vice president in the senate and then also in the house where they actually need all of the democrats except for two to pass anything at this moment as i speak uh 218 to 212 as i speak uh with uh six vacancies the feature that's uh i think important for you to think through is one that people never do uh and i'm gonna play this for you two ways first we have a very very very long history of tax hikes and tax cuts of every important type at the federal level personal income capital gains corporate we have a very long history and throughout the course of that history we have continuous stock prices so whenever i see something like that where we have a continuous history and continuous stock prices i say let's go back and look at the times where these things have happened before and look at the period 6 12 18 24 months afterwards and see what happened to stock prices and this is the part that people that have this fear uh don't really do and if they did i think they'd feel better about it because the aftermath of those tax hikes is fairly consistently positive not perfectly so but actually more so believe it or not than the average positiveness of the stock market by about twenty percent i don't mean twenty percent extra return i've been about twenty percent of the time more positive and why when the stock market's normally about two-thirds of positive about two-thirds of the time why and this is the part that people are baffled by because before that tax hike's ever done it has been debated it has been discussed it has been praised and it has been cussed and it is something that has been what stock markets and capital markets always do pre-priced if there's things to be feared they were feared in advance a length of the process to go in public through legislation wandering around and debating and praising and and degrading all of that gets pre-priced into the market before the tax ever happens and therefore is keeping the market down a little before the bill when the bill happens it's over and done and so the history of the aftermath has been stronger because the debating process has been a little bit like a depressing spring that has been released when you move to the certainty of the aftermath i want to reiterate i understand why people who fear tax hikes fear them i understand that aside from capital markets completely it's entirely valid that this tax hike could hurt you that tax hike could hurt your brother the other tax hike could hurt your sister in the real world in the business that they do in their pocketbook etc etc but in capital markets stock markets bond markets currency markets etc etc all of these things in that long process it takes to get legislation through congress get pre-priced creating a dampening spring effect before the legislation is passed and signed and then a release of that spring after it's over and done thank you very much for listening to this video but this is a topic that you should not see as a negative impact because we have a long history we know exactly what happens whether it's personal income capital gains which is basically a different version of the same thing corporate tax hikes you can't name a tax hike that we haven't really seen something pretty similar to before that might possibly get through this congress and come back to negatively hurt you or someone else or help you or someone else in any way you envision it that markets won't pre-price thank you very much