저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 연준의 제로금리와 양적완화가 만든 인플레이션과 자산 거품이 더 큰 금융·통화 위기를 예고한다고 본다. 인플레이션은 세금과 같다: 정부가 돈을 찍어 쓰면 물가가 올라 국민이 실질 구매력을 잃으며, 이것이 사실상의 세금 역할을 한다. 2021년 소비자물가는 약 7% 상승해 1982년 이후 최고 수준이며, 1982년식 측정법을 쓰면 약 15%에 달할 것이라고 주장한다. 연준의 금리 인상은 인플레이션(7%)보다 낮은 1~2% 수준에 그쳐 실질적 긴축이 되지 못하고, 부채가 많아 10%는커녕 5%도 어렵다고 본다. 그 결과 스태그플레이션이 오고, 연준은 다시 완화로 돌아서며, 결국 달러 신뢰 붕괴 → 통화 위기 → 국가 신용위기 → 초인플레이션으로 이어질 수 있다고 경고한다. 과거 2008년 금융위기도 같은 원인(잘못된 정책)에서 비롯됐으며, 지금 위기는 그보다 더 크다고 주장한다. 위기 속에서도 승자는 있었다(대공황 때 헐값에 자산을 사 부를 쌓은 사례). 개인은 과대평가된 자산을 팔고 저평가된 통화나 실물(금·은)로 옮기며, 신흥국 자산 등에 투자해야 한다고 제안한다. 달러 폭락 시 미국인들의 소비가 크게 줄 것으로 본다. 종목별 구체적 목표가나 기간 언급은 없고 거시적 방향성 위주다.
다듬은 글
you know get out of the most overvalued currencies and into uh more fairly or better valued currencies or or better yet get out of currencies completely and own real money have owned gold and silver most of the additional government is being paid for by printing more money so instead of raising our taxes and taking our money they're printing more money and taking our purchasing power and so americans are paying for the cost of government through a higher cost of living so because the government is printing up so much money and spending it or giving it to other people to spend prices go up and so now everybody can afford to buy less because the prices of everything they're buying are so much higher and that represents the tax because if prices are higher and you can afford less stuff the stuff that you can no longer afford was basically taxed away from you well to stop creating money stop stop you know causing inflation um but you know that would result in a lot of other short-term problems like stock prices crashing bond prices crashing real estate prices crashing financial crisis bankruptcies defaults a lot of really bad things are going to happen if the fed stops creating inflation but of course even worse things are going to happen if they keep creating inflation so there's really no easy way out of it there's just a bad way and a worse way and unfortunately we're choosing the worst way i'm warning today about a much bigger financial crisis currency crisis that is waiting for us here and you can call me dr doom if you want because i mean i am forecasting some economic doom for a lot of people but it's not because i just want to make that forecast that that's what's there that's what i see because i understand uh the errors that the central banks and governments are making and i know uh what what the ramifications are just like i knew that uh when greenspan was in charge inflating the housing bubble but you know the powers that be did not i mean they thought we were enjoying genuine prosperity and i knew they were wrong and the same thing is happening again this is an artificial bubble inflated by central banks the fed in particular and uh you know the crisis that we have uh you know laid the foundation for is now much greater than the one back then but of course the same people who were oblivious to the coming 2008 financial crisis are oblivious to this one you know even though it's even bigger but the causes are the same i mean it's the same uh bad policies uh that have caused the problems that have sown the seeds for the next crisis i think the balls were already in motion because you know we had this big increase in consumer prices in 2021.
uh we get the official cpi numbers i think on wednesday here but it's gonna show that prices were up seven percent maybe a little bit more uh during 2021 that would be the highest rate i think since 1982-ish uh but you know if we still measured prices the way we measured them in 1982 we would have you know reported about a 15 increase in consumer prices which would make it worse than any individual year during the 1970s or uh 1980.
so this was a horrible year of inflation and i think this is you know really the beginning of the end because now the fed can no longer justify zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing it needs to raise interest rates and it's now talking about raising interest rates and it may in fact raise them we'll see it may not just talk it may actually do it but the problem is even the rate hikes they're talking about are too small and too late to make a difference because the fed is talking about raising interest rates well we got seven percent inflation you can't raise rates to one or two percent rates need to be higher than the rate of inflation if you want to slow the rate of inflation so interest rates need to go i don't know 10 but of course we can't even get near 10 we can't even get to 5 we have so much debt because of all the past money planting and all the stimulus of the fed they have created a situation where it's impossible to fight inflation and so they won't do it and that's going to be the seeds of the next crisis because as the fed is you know uh tightening up on its monetary policy to make it less loose right we're not going to have tight money we're just going to have money that's less loose than it was before the problem is less loose is not enough to sustain the asset bubbles you know in you know in a lot of these financial assets so we get a crash but it's not tight enough to actually bend the inflation curve and so inflation is going to keep getting worse even as the fed is hiking rates supposedly to fight it that's going to lead to stagflation that's ultimately going to cause the fed to reverse course and start easing again even though inflation will be worse than when it started its tightening uh campaign and and somewhere along the way the markets are going to wake up to this reality and the dollar of the bottom rather is going to drop out of the dollar and then we're going to have a currency crisis that will morph into a sovereign death crisis and and then it's all over you know then we have a a real collapse because then the fed has to let interest rates go way up and everything comes crashing down in a much more spectacular way than 08 except nobody gets bailed out everybody has to suffer the losses in their entirety and they'll be much bigger or they don't have the guts to do that and they just keep printing money anyway and they they print the dollar into oblivion and we have hyperinflation which of course would be even worse if you recognize what is going to happen and understand what's already happened you can position yourself on a personal level to profit from you know what's going to unfold i mean there's always going to be winners and losers i mean in every economic crisis there are winners i mean there are a lot of losers and the losers you know you know there's a lot of stories about the losers it's you know it's very high profile but fortunes are made during those those times i mean a lot of people uh made fortunes during the great depression i mean they were able to buy up assets on the cheap that they never would have been able to buy but for those circumstances and that later ended up being you know a springboard to incredible wealth so i think there's gonna be a lot of opportunity uh for people to get rich uh while a lot of other people are growing broke right uh so the question is how do you avoid going broke and stay rich if you're already rich or maybe get richer or maybe get rich if you're not rich now i mean how can you take advantage of the circumstances and i think what you need to do is you need to understand all of the artificially inflated assets and get out of those so don't own the stuff that's going to crash but own the things that are going to rise in value when all that stuff crashes uh you know get out of the most overvalued currencies and into uh more fairly or better valued currencies or or better yet get out of currencies completely and own real money have owned gold and silver but own uh assets in countries emerging markets uh whose economies will will get benefit from what's about to happen you know certain asset classes and businesses will thrive in this environment because i think if the dollar crashes the way i believe americans are going to substantially reduce their their spending
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