저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인 가격은 곧 폭락할 것이며 40,000달러에서 10,000달러, 5,000달러까지 몇 시간 안에도 떨어질 수 있다는 결론. 비트코인은 가치 없는 토큰에 가까우며 2021년 과도한 홍보와 광고로 가격이 부풀려졌다는 주장. 가격이 오른 이유는 매수 세력이 있었기 때문이며, 투자자들이 부자가 될 수 있다고 믿는 동안 가격이 유지되지만 믿음이 사라지면 매도가 나온다고 설명. 초기 비트코인 억만장자들은 이미 매도 중이고, 현재 매수자는 손실을 떠안는 '물린 사람(bag holder)'이라는 주장. 기관투자자 유입도 소폭에 그쳤으며, 한번 데인 기관들은 비트코인 시장에 발을 들이지 않을 것이라는 전망. 화폐 관점에서는 금과 은이 비트코인보다 훨씬 우월한 화폐라고 주장. 과거 금본위제는 정직한 화폐 체계였으나 1971년 금태환 폐지 이후 법정화폐(fiat) 체계는 실패할 운명이라고 평가. 중앙은행은 해악이 더 크다고 보며 화폐는 자유시장이 만들어야 하고 정부는 세금으로만 재원을 마련해야 한다는 입장. 블록체인 등 현대 기술을 활용하면 금 기반 거래를 과거보다 더 쉽게 할 수 있어 정직한 화폐 체계가 부활할 수 있다고 봄. 2022년은 고평가된 성장주들에게 이미 재앙적인 해였으며, 주가 대비 실적이 낮은 기업들에 대한 심판의 날이 가까웠다는 진단. 비트코인 가격은 1년 전과 비슷하며 며칠 내 전년 대비 마이너스 전환될 수 있다고 언급. ※ 본 영상의 기준 시점은 2022년 3월이며 현재 시장 상황과 무관.
다듬은 글
bitcoin is gonna crash and so bitcoin can go from forty thousand to ten thousand to five thousand i mean you know in a few in a few hours even well money is supposed to be the most liquid and the most marketable commodity that's what money is by definition i mean before we had money uh we conducted commerce through barter so you know you traded uh goods and services you know with other people but you had to pay for the services and goods you bought with the goods and services that you had or that you produce so if i was a a butcher and you were a baker i i wanted some of your bread you know i would trade you some of my meat well what if you're a vegetarian and you don't want my meat well i can't get your bread because all i have is meat that you don't want right um and so it wasn't very efficient and then of course you know how much meat do i need to give you for a loaf of bread or how many loaves of bread you need to give me for you know for a steak i mean what's the what's the relative value it's hard to say it was very cumbersome i mean it worked because that's how people lived until man invented money and so what money was was a commodity that everybody could agree on that you know it was universally accepted in exchange for other goods and services but ultimately metal ended up being the best money and they made metal into coins and the best metal for money was gold and so you know over time we learned that gold was the best form of money and gold functioned as money uh very efficiently for thousands of years you know but eventually man developed money substitutes currency which could circulate you know alongside of money uh and and and be a medium of exchange in a unit of account but the reason that those money substitutes worked is that they were backed by actual money so paper money currency was backed by actual money so if you had you know a hundred dollars it was really an iou for a hundred dollars worth of gold that sat in the vault somewhere and what gave that piece of paper value was the gold that was in that vault backing it up right so uh and and and it would function but you know 1971 ever since then we we finally cut the last ties that remained to real money and paper you know federal reserve notes we now have this fiat monetary system uh that i think is doomed to fail because it can't work because what we're using is money is not real money the type of monetary system that existed before 1971 um and maybe even before 1913 which is when we introduced the federal reserve i mean i don't think governments or countries need central banks i think on balance they do more harm than good so i don't think we need them but i also don't think governments should try to play the role of central bankers either i think that money needs to be a creature of the free market right money needs to be produced by you know the market not by the government and if the government wants money it needs to tax it and collect it through taxation right uh legitimately and and that's what we did when when you know we're on gold standards and the money was created privately uh the government would buy the gold and turn it into coins and make it into legal tender that was fine but it was the free market that that decided what money was and uh that created money and brought it into existence the government the government just coined it and established uh you know a a a you know a unit of account and the weights and measures of the of of the the money you know how much gold was a dollar how much silver equaled the dollar and that's what they did but the gold and silver was created by the the free market by miners who went out and and produced uh produced the gold uh and you know and then if the government wanted gold it had to levy taxes and collect it from the population they couldn't just print it into existence the way they do now so they couldn't run these big deficits i mean they could borrow money but there's certainly a limit to to what they could borrow but there's no limit to what they can print although the problem is you know if you exceed the limits you destroy the value of what you're printing which is where we're headed but i i think we can go back to an honest monetary system i think it would work great i mean it worked great in the past i think it can work even greater in the future if you marry it to modern technology and you know use the internet and use blockchain uh to make it even easier to transact in gold now than it was in the past i think i think it'll work extremely well having real money 2022 has been a disastrous year already uh for a lot of these high-flying companies you know no earnings or small earnings relative to their prices uh so maybe the day of reckoning is uh is close at hand i mean bitcoin's price is about the same as it was a year ago in fact relatively soon probably within the next few days it will be negative on a year-over-year basis and you need to ask why is that because in 2021 there really was a record amount of hype surrounding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies i mean like i've never seen and not just hype but massive advertising campaign from all sorts of crypto related companies that got started up in the you know in the uh ipo spac wave of 2021 so i mean bitcoin was really shoved down everybody's throat in 2021 i mean especially look at a network like cnbc non-stop uh crypto ads i mean one ad after another non-stop throughout the day and then their their list of guests uh including all these pumpers from the bitcoin world and various companies out there touting uh bitcoin with pie in the sky forecast of spectacular price appreciation and all of the on-air you know hosts and you know they're all agreeing i mean nobody is really uh challenging any of these people uh despite you know how ridiculous you know their forecasts are what they're saying and despite all this positive press right and massive money spent to convince people to buy basically nothing worthless tokens why didn't the price go up because lots of people were buying right you had these institutions right come in and start buying bitcoin why didn't all that buying drive up the price that's because there was somebody else selling and as long as people think they can get rich buying bitcoin don't buy bitcoin but when they no longer believe they're going to get rich they won't buy it and when they think they're going to get poor if they keep holding it then they're going to sell it and you know you this is you know billionaires in bitcoin the bitcoin billionaires bought their bitcoin a long time ago right if you're a billionaire buying bitcoin today you're not going to be a billionaire if you buy a lot of bitcoin uh but people became billionaires getting in early and now they're cashing out uh but the people who are buying now are the bag holders bitcoin is going to crash and so bitcoin can go from 40 000 to 10 000 to 5000 i mean you know in a few day in a few hours even the big push was to get the institutions on board and they may have succeeded to a small degree in 2021 suckering in some institutional money but i think that after being burned so badly uh i think the institutions that put their foot in the water and and now see how cold it is i think they're they're not going into the pool
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