저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
Jim Rogers는 경기침체가 머지않았고 인플레이션이 더 심해질 것이라며 대형 하락장을 경고한다. 거시 경제: 과도한 돈 찍기와 차입으로 인플레이션이 이어지며, 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이라 달러 신뢰도가 약해진다고 본다. 마지막으로 강한 랠리 후 블로오프가 올 수 있다고 언급한다. 금·은·원자재: 원자재는 수요·공급 불균형과 전기차 구리·납 수요로 장기 강세가 예상된다. 금은 역사적 고점 근처이고 은은 고점 대비 약 55% 하락해 상대적으로 싸다고 보며, 조정 시 금·은을 더 살 계획이다. 대응 전략: 하락장 전 강세였던 주식은 70~90% 폭락할 수 있다. 공매도, 현금, 저평가·침체된 시장(러시아 재개 시 등) 투자를 고려한다. 핫팁을 따르지 말고 잘 아는 분야에 투자하라고 강조한다. 디지털 화폐: 정부 통제가 강해져 완전한 디지털 화폐 세계는 현실적이지 않으며 은·현금 같은 대안이 남는다고 본다. 리스크: 많은 국가와 개인이 파산할 수 있는 복잡한 시기가 2~4년 내 올 수 있다. 본인은 생존을 바란다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
we're going to have a recession probably fairly soon and when the when the recession comes a lot of us are going to get hurt i hope i'll survive i hope we all survive but some people are going to get hurt throughout history money printing and borrowing and spending huge amounts of money has always led to inflation we're going to have inflation now it's going to get worse it won't go up every day but it's going to get worse the us has been on top for a while but now as i said we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and now we will not let the u.s dollar stay neutral now we're using it as a political or an instrument of war so that means nobody in his right mind who thinks they might across the u.s someday is going to want to use u.s dollars you know i don't think i'm ever going to cross the u.s dollar are you at the u.s the state department but i worry now i've got to figure out something else some other place to keep my money it's been 12 years since we had the last recession in the u.s that's the longest in american history so we're overdue just on a time basis i mean it could last 20 years who said it has to couldn't go on forever but it never has so i am sure because of inflation higher which will drive interest rates higher we're going to have a recession in the foreseeable future uh i'm not trying to scare people and just tell them that's the way it's always worked since the beginning of time so yes we're going to have a recession probably fairly soon you you know you should watch to read stansberry they'll tell you when the recession is coming they're smarter than i am and when they when the recession comes a lot of us are going to get hurt i hope i'll survive i hope we all survive but some people are going to get hurt commodities have been had a decade or so where they were in the tank for many reasons while people were putting their money into bonds and stocks and property in some in some countries i was so i would suspect since supply and demand have gotten out of whack in most commodities that the commodity bull market will last a long time they're printing a lot of money they're going to continue to print money money printing has always led to inflation and if you own the things that go up in price you do well plus their fundamental change is taking place in the world electric cars use four times or several times as much copper and lead as regular cars so the demand for a lot of stuff is going to be going up so we're going to see higher prices well i own gold i mean i'm an old peasant and us old peasants know we better have some gold and silver when things go wrong i'm not buying at the moment because you just pointed out it's going through the roof uh if i were buying anything i would buy silver now because it's cheaper i'm not buying either right now but when they go down again i hope i'm smart enough to buy more gold and more silver yes they have lagged what many people would think but yellow gold is at an all-time high certainly in your euros and most international currencies so it's not as old gold has been sitting in the corner doing nothing and i will buy more of both when they calm down that has barely rarely been right about anything in the history of the federal reserve what is it 110 years old almost now they've rarely been right about anything they told us that there was no inflation then they said it was transitory i don't know what they're saying now throughout history money printing and borrowing and spending huge amounts of money has always led to inflation we're going to have inflation now it's going to get worse it won't go up every day but it's going to get worse and that's going to lead to higher interest rates and it's going to lead to profit erosion in some industries and some companies and all of us are going to have to pay more for a loaf of bread or whatever we buy well there'll be a big collapse if it works the way i said we have a big rally one last big rally it'll be a blow off call it what you will uh many stocks will really go through the roof and then when they start going down danielle i know you've been around a while they have bear markets always hurt a lot of people especially the stocks that have been the strongest go back to any big bear market and the stocks that were very strong before the bear market go down 70 80 90 sometimes even if the company survives you know amazon microsoft these stocks in the late 90s collapsed collapsed we still have them the companies are still here the stocks are still here but the stocks that do well going into the bear market really get crushed well uh as i said before i own u.s dollars i don't know how long i'm going to own them if they have if it has one last rally and if stocks do i have not so short daniella but probably if it works the way i think you will is i will start selling short again now if you know how to sell short you can make a lot of money or lose a lot of money uh but if you know how to sell short as a way to protect yourself and prosper in a bear market agriculture is a disaster some of the assets some of the commodities i told you about uh there are fundamental changes taking place in supply and demand commodities have not been in a wild bull market for a while i mean silver daniella silver is down 60 or 55 now 55 from its all-time high that's not a bubble that's a disaster for the people who own silver for a long time so there are places that one can invest i would say real assets commodities selling short cash but you have to have the right cash you know because many currencies are going to go down a lot and if you can find markets that are depressed i mean maybe by then russia will be open again russia will certainly be a hated market by the end of this year or next year if it opens again maybe that would be a place to look i always like to look at places that are hated and that are depressed and of course in the last few years nearly everything has gone up except commodities everybody needs to get knowledgeable you can watch stansberry stansberry whatever you have to do to get knowledgeable please get knowledgeable because we're going to have some very complicated times in the next two or three or four years a lot of countries and people are going to go bankrupt but if you're knowledgeable about what's going on you will become prepared and if you get prepared you might make a lot of money a lot of people made a lot of money in the 30s daniella it's a horrible economic disaster but a lot of people came out of it rich the key is to be prepared know what you're doing don't listen to hot tips and just invest in what you yourself know a lot about but a lot of people and i hope i i hope i do survive but a lot of people are not going to survive the next bear market if the internet's closed you don't have computer money you're out of the government has even more control than normal so i don't see that it's that practical uh that we're not going to have at least some alternatives whether it's silver or cash or whatever it is i cannot see the world having a hundred percent computer money for the reasons i've just said now the governments would like it they don't have to print the money they don't have to transport it they know everything about you
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