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what's going on everyone my name is Jeff so I've got a lot of requests to cover its earnings report from this past week I did try to make it a priority but just too many other things were going on now I really have an opportunity to sit down present this information guys and let's all get some good discussion going on down in the comments section I know several of you mentioned you were going short before the earnings call I actually wrote a set of calls up to the earnings report and sold two days before they reported I was way too scared did not have the courage to hold those through earnings and I'm very very glad I did so let's kind of go through this a little bit at a time I want to start by talking what the sell side analysts are saying kind of make you guys aware of that on the front end you know and so these comments come in by analysts shortly after this almost $40 per share drop on the stock price guys so let's get into it do me a favor so right off the bat Wedbush Dan eyes says Tesla's disappointing gross margins call into the question the company's ability to show sustainable profitability on the heels of lower margin model three units going for this is nothing we don't already know I think this is very very typical from Tesla to approach an earnings report there's a lot of smoke and mirrors there's a lot of height then of course when the numbers have to be reported it's very very disappointing okay now we did see a tick up in demand and we did see a little bit of increase there but Tesla did not show it in their numbers and I will be getting to the earnings report really really soon and then this paragraph mentions that Citigroup gets right to the point by saying it observed more negatives than positives during quarter - Auto gross margin that came in below expectations the quarter will likely fuel the bear case around Tesla's ability to achieve sustainable profitability after their H to 2018 performance so that's really what happens here guys I'm gonna give you an example in a company like align technology and a company like Tesla align technology came they reported earnings seen a big drop in the stock price but people are actually calling that a wonderful place to buy because they have been so consistent with earnings throughout the past five to six years that they will probably do a bad quarter any big pullback where Tesla has been wildly inconsistent if you want to go back to last quarter and now this quarter Tesla has been reporting terrible numbers and we just have to see more out of this company than that okay RBC Capital says not a lot to like from Tesla's quarter to 2019 print softer gross margins with the unclear path to see them higher larger loss than expected vague guidance and CTO Dept I like that word I like what they just said there fagor guidance okay I think everybody on Wall Street is doubting Elon Musk's capability of projecting earnings okay he has no idea what is going on and what investors are to expect we all just know that he does not like short sellers they just seem to bother him and get in his head quite a bit Nomar calls Tesla's free cash flow a bright spot but doubts there's enough investor confidence to get the stock working again and then Bernstein isn't quite as negative they calling Tesla's coder not good but not terrible either okay so that is five analysts coming out in one day and basically downgrading the stock in leaving negative comments so of course you did not see any upgrades with Tesla stock let's go to the chart I do want to talk about some of the price movement that we've seen recently if you want to go back to the early parts of June I published a few videos about Tesla when it was trading down under $180 I really try to suggest to cover out on any shorts get out of any put options because from that point I had no idea what was really gonna happen with the stock and it made a massive recovery over the past month and a half and that it did guys it made a run into earnings this is very common and I even think you could probably position yourself to do this again with certain companies like take advantage in the big dip in Netflix and also take advantage in the big dip in Tesla I do not think this stock is done trading down just yet but somewhere around a month to a month and a half depending on market conditions I think you could write a set of call options into the earnings call then sell right before they report and who knows you might even want to buy a put option or two because those seem to make some outstanding money Tesla traded all the way back up to two hundred and sixty-five dollars a share I do think optimism was a little bit too high I've been watching some videos here on YouTube and watching some of the coverage and it was still all very very negative on Tesla's earnings in that of course we got another big drop over $40 a share fell off Tesla in his trade itself back down to the $220 level guys I do think it's going to stay here for a while but depending on how hard analysts beat it up it might go down some more I would not be surprised if it retested the $200 level would not surprise me a bit right now Tesla is currently trading at 228 dollars it took a small loss on a very very green day today and it even shot down to two hundred twenty seven dollars in after-hours so like I said I do not think Tesla is done trading itself back down then of course this is the results of the earnings report they're quarter to non-gaap EPS of a negative one dollar 12 cents that missed by 72 cents they missed revenue by 90 million dollars of course they were supposed to come with six point three five billion and they missed by ninety million dollars so I think is this perhaps the stock is starting to be fairly valued but the analysis is just too negative and Tesla is going to continue trading down for a period of time that is my belief like I said it could rebound here really just kind of depends on what analysts come in and say about how many sharp down grades are they going to take we just seen four or five of them but these are all companies that already have ratings on Tesla already so it's more of a reiteration instead of new analysis now a couple things I do want to talk about guys I don't think you should really buy into some of these things that Elon Musk is saying highlight it on the company's earnings call that the company is close to self-funding and reiterated that he expects a break even quarter three in quarter four profitable I don't really see that happening I would not put any stock into that I know there's a lot of people that are gonna take that and try to run with it and think that comment right there is gonna take them to further grounds but I'm issuing fair warning here guys I really do not see that happening he basically has three to six months to make that happen and it's just not looking like it's possible this next thing I don't really consider a big amount of news but in the news from c-suite CTO JB Straubel is transitioning into more of a non operational role at Tesla which he said on the call has nothing to do with a lack of confidence on the company this is just one of those things guys I would not really pay a whole lot of attention to CFO Zach Kirk Horne we are all very familiar with him I know that I am he participated on the earnings call noting that Tesla story is hard to visualize on a quarter-to-quarter look that is probably the most realistic statement that I've heard and I think that's just a very prepped up white of saying continue to expect bad earnings from Tesla quarter after quarter that's how you really got to play this company guys ride those call options maybe a month to a month and a half before the earnings call start mapping it out and then a few days before Tesla reports get out of those call options and let whatever is gonna happen on the earnings report half as you can see like I just mentioned a minute ago the money was on the short side and the put option side once again so I don't feel any need to be very very long-winded with this video guys I'm gonna keep it kind of short try to get to the point is Tesla by here at 228 dollars a share absolutely if you are a long-term investor if you're gonna be playing the options market I have a completely different strategy okay I would want to wait for the next earnings call to be posted I want to be well aware of it and then I would like to ride some call options into the next earnings call and sell shortly before they report I do not think they're gonna have good numbers in quarter three you know some of the delivery estimates did come up quite a bit but when you're seeing an earnings call that is this disappointing even here guys going back to April on the quarter one call they're surprised was negative 322 percent okay they did have 4.54 billion dollars of revenue I'm just gonna let Tesla stock kind of do what it does for the next couple of weeks I think you're gonna see it trade back down for a little while and then I will probably chase it into the next earnings call possibly really depends on market conditions and of course I do want to keep an ear out for when neo reports earnings as well so that's all I got for the video guys make sure to go down in the comments section and share your thoughts with me thank you as always for watching and have a great day
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