저자: Koukun · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼의 이민 확대 인플레 해법 주장을 소개하며, 캐나다가 이민을 통해 임금 인플레와 금리 부담을 완화할 수 있을지 지켜보겠다는 내용이다. [주제 1: 빌 애크먼의 인플레 해법 - 이민 확대] 인플레는 수요를 줄이거나(금리 인상) 공급을 늘려 완화할 수 있다. 이민으로 노동 공급이 늘면 임금 인플레를 낮출 수 있다는 것이 애크먼의 주장이다. 금리 인상은 수요를 파괴하고 실업과 경기침체를 부를 수 있다. [주제 2: 애크먼의 투자 실적 근거] 2008년 금융위기 때 주택시장 붕괴에 대비해 CDS 6,400만 달러 투자, 약 12억 달러 이익(18.5배). 코로나 때 경제 셧다운과 증시 타격을 예측해 2,700만 달러 투자, 약 26억 달러 수익(약 100배). 2020년 말 인플레에 따른 금리 인상을 예측해 스왑션 1억 8,800만 달러 투자, 현재까지 14억 달러 수익, 추가 매수 중. 단, 모든 베팅이 맞은 것은 아니라고 언급. [주제 3: 캐나다 임금·인플레 비교 데이터] 캐나다 평균 시급 상승률은 최근 약 3%대였고 코로나 초기 10% 부근까지 급등 후 2021년 여름 급락, 이후 점진적 상승해 9월 기준 약 5.4~5.58%. 미국도 비슷한 경로였으나 회복이 빨랐고 현재 약 5% 안정 유지. 캐나다는 최근에야 5% 도달. [주제 4: 캐나다 이민 정책과 인구 증가] 캐나다 목표: 2022년 43만 명, 2023년 44.7만 명, 2024년 45.1만 명 영주권자 유입(3년간 약 150만 명). 유학생 후 영주권 전환은 미포함. 2016~2021년 누적 이민 증가율은 캐나다 5.2%, 미국 2.6%로 약 2배. G20 기준 캐나다 인구 성장률은 G7 1위, G20 7위. 선진국 중 호주만 비슷한 수준. [주제 5: 출연자 전망] 이민 증가로 주택 수요가 계속 견조할 것으로 보며, 장기적으로 인플레 완화와 캐나다의 미국보다 빠른 금리 인하 가능성을 제기했다. 다만 예측은 불확실하다고 명시.
다듬은 글
foreign we're going to discuss a potential solution that may help Canada's inflation rate from being significantly higher especially relative to the US and the other G7 Nations before we get into it I'm going to share a Quick Clip which is a promo video for our upcoming investment tour in the City of Welland on October 15th hey guys coconair we are at a investment property in the city of Holland and we just completed our investment tour so these investment tours we take out some of our new clients to check out a few different projects that are either currently under renovation or complete just to get an idea of the before and afters we typically go through the numbers on a project like this sort of purchase price after repair value go into the rental numbers if it's already been rented so if you're interested click the link below all right so the link is in the comments below if you want to sign up for our next well investment tour and it is a free tour so let's get into this video uh the reason I uh came up with this topic for today is a investor that I follow closely Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management he's someone that I've sort of followed over the last many years um just curiously to see what he's up to what he what he's saying he's very vocal about the Investments he takes place in uh one of the things he's recently brought up is a tool to fight inflation maybe immigration his point being that in order to reduce inflation what they're currently doing is increasing interest rates which destroys demand but the other way to reduce inflation is by increasing Supply and specifically wage inflation which is the rising cost of wages can be reduced by new workers so if you have immigration you have more people who want jobs and that takes away jobs from our supply from the currently very tight labor market which may be a tool to reduce inflation so inflation can be mitigated by reducing demand and or increasing Supply exactly what I mentioned um anything doesn't it make sense to moderate wages wage inflation by increasing immigration than by raising rates destroying demand putting people out of work and causing a recession how realistic this is for the US who knows and before we get into some more specifics why should we listen to Bill Ackman so um Bill Ackman has a track record of what he calls defensive hedging within his hedge fund so he's one of the few hedge funds that actually Hedges his portfolio everyone talks about it but few have a track record of having done it so for example in the 2008 financial crisis he hedged against the housing market collapse he had an investment of 64 million in cds's which resulted in a benefit to his firm of 1.2 billion and 18.5 times return he then in kovid did the same thing he predicted that kovid was going to cause a very significant impact on the economy the economy would need to be shut down and the stock market would suffer his investment there was very early it only cost him 27 million and he returned to 2.6 billion almost 100 times return and then more recently in late 2020 he predicted interest rates would have to rise due to inflation and he purchased what are called swaptions it's an interest rate swap complicated Financial product but essentially it allows you to make money if interest rates go up he invested 188 million and so far he's made 1.4 billion and he's since purchased more swaptions hedging against future rate hikes so he's already up 7.4 percent as of this was in 2020 too early 2022 so it may even be up higher since the more recent rate hikes so that being said again Bill Ackman is someone who has a track record of making some of these bets he's not always correct I should say that there are some Investments he has made where he was off but specifically in this type of uh prediction with interest rates covet the sub Subway uh subprime crisis he has had a good track record if this is correct here's a curious part if you look at the average hourly wage data in Canada it has been sitting for the last couple of years around three percent during covet it did Spike up to 10 right at the beginning but that again this is average hourly wage it may be a result of you know more lower wage workers being forced not to work due to the restrictions and maybe more higher wage workers like Tech workers who could work from home or healthcare workers who could continue to work uh continuing to work that may have been the reason why this number was higher I don't know exactly um in summer of 2021 it dramatically reduced and then now it's been on a gradual upward Trend up to the current 5.4 or 5.58 um in September as per this uh chart now the US has had an almost identical uh path they were hovering around three percent they spiked up to eight percent they also had that drop in early 2021 but here's where it gets interesting they had a recovery much faster and they've been steadily staying around five percent uh versus for us it's only recently got to five percent what this means again it's not completely clear but when we look at the Canadian immigration forecast so right now Canada aims to welcome 430 000 new permanent residents in 2022 447 000 in 2023 451 000 in 2024 so in the LA in the next three years we are going to be just shy of 1.5 million people in and these are new permanent residents from what I could see this number does not include students coming to study in Canada which there is a significant amount of students who come study to Canada study in Canada and then afterwards apply for a work permit or a permanent residence after the fact so that is going to be a huge number of people who become permanent residents in the future that we already know they're going to be permanent residents because they're coming here taking four years to study getting a diploma here paying very high school rates but that being said again more demand in terms of people coming here who are going to work in Canada if you look at the population growth change over the last few years you can see the the green graph is green line is America and blue is Canada so they've been somewhat steadily consistent occasionally the states is higher occasionally Canada's higher but more recently we're starting to see a bit of a Divergence where the immigration rate in America is reducing as of most recently in 2020 may have been due to the pandemic it went down to 0.4 but even before then it was 0.7 0.60.5 right and the Canadian immigration number is rising and it went as high as 1.4 so at one point well we were almost three times the immigration rate of the states as a percentage of our population we're a much smaller country so it is easy to have a large population number relative to a country like the United States if you look in the G20 Canada's population growth is the fastest in the G7 and it ranks the seventh in the G20 so of the other nations if you consider really developed Nations Australia is probably the only other Nation with as strong of a population growth as Canada in Saudi Arabia is there too um but in terms of I guess more Western developed Nations and the Curious part this is from 2016 to 2021.
Canada's overall immigration was 5.2 percent Americas in the same time period was 2.6 sold half of Canada's immigration rate so what does all of this mean if Bill Ackman is correct in saying that immigration can solve inflation by reducing demand for workers or increasing sorry increasing supply of workers which reduces Demand on wage inflation we may be given a silver lining to all of this because of our immigration we've so far looked at immigration as a reason why our housing market is going to continue to be strong because of the demand for people to live here but we may start to even see benefits both in our economy that we've already seen up to this point but also in the reduction of inflation over time so it will be interesting to see if inflation persists is there going to be a diversion in the inflation rate of Canada relative to the states and then potentially is Canada going to be able to reduce interest rates sooner than the US now obviously that is all very uncertain predicting the future is impossible so all of the all of this to say I'm going to be watching this closely to see is our immigration going to affect the wage growth in Canada relative to the states and as a result are we going to see less inflation over time so hope you found this helpful until next time all the best
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