저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빌 애크먼은 시장이 반영하는 금리 급등은 과도하며, 연내 기준금리가 4.25%까지 오르지는 않을 것이고 내년 초쯤 4%대 종착금리(terminal rate)에 도달할 것으로 본다. 금리 전망: 연준이 제시한 것보다 시장이 단기 금리 인상을 더 공격적으로 반영하고 있다고 지적했다. 연내 4.25% 도달에는 회의적이며, 인상 속도가 더 완만할 것으로 봤다. 종착금리는 4%대(4.0~4.75% 사이로 추정)이며 2023년 1분기 무렵 도달할 것으로 언급했다. 물가 전망: CPI는 향후 몇 달 내 둔화가 나타날 것으로 기대했다(희망 섞인 표현). 장기 인플레이션: 더 중요한 문제는 장기 인플레이션과 장기 금리라고 봤다. 연준이 물가 2%를 회복할 때까지 긴축을 유지한다는 입장에 대해 2%로 돌아갈지 의문을 제기했다. 장기 인플레는 2%를 상회할 가능성이 높다는 견해다. 시장 심리: 시장 심리가 금리 상승 쪽으로 극단적으로 기울었고, 일부에서는 모기지 금리 10%를 거론한다. 애크먼은 이것이 과도한 비관으로 보는 뉘앙스다. 진행자 시사점(부분 출연자 견해 아님): 장기 인플레가 4% 수준이면 모기지 금리도 5~6%에 머물 수 있으므로, 수익률(cap rate) 6~8% 이상 부동산에 투자 가치가 있다는 조언이 나온다. 리스크: 이것은 개인 견해이며 금리·물가 예측은 불확실하다. 출연자 전망 요약: 금리 상승 피크가 임박했을 수 있고, 시장이 우려하는 만큼 나쁘지 않을 수 있다는 입장.
다듬은 글
in today's video I'm going to share a quick clip from an interview that Bill Ackman the founder of Pershing Square Capital Management has to share on his views on interest rates um inflation and where the terminal rate meaning the peak of uh interest rate is going to be as well as his view on longer term inflation rates so let's check it out now the market is pricing in even more aggressive interest rate increases in the short term than the Federal Reserve has suggested I think the market maybe actually uh you know it was the Active cases were too low before they may be too high now I'm not convinced Federal Reserve is going to raise rates to four and a quarter percent by the end of the year uh I think they may go more slowly than that but I think you know uh the so-called terminal rate uh you know likely will be something with a four in front of it and we'll probably probably get there by sometime in q1 and I think you'll start to see a moderation in in the CPI numbers over the next uh several months or certainly we hope that's the case um I think a more interesting question and I would say more relevant to the value of companies is long-term inflation and long-term interest rates and that's where I think uh the Federal Reserves view that you know we're going to keep policy tight until we get back to two percent I'm not sure we're getting back to two percent all right so quite a few interesting things that he brought up so his view is that he doesn't see the interest rates uh being raised by the Central Bank going up to four and a quarter by the end of the year he thinks that's quite aggressive and his view is that we will be reaching the terminal interest rate which will have a four in front of it so it could be as low as four percent or as high as say four and a half or four and three quarters but we will reach that at some point next year and that would be the terminal rate that would be sort of the peak of interest rates the market right now so the interest rate Market is pricing in that the FED has to increase it to four and a quarter this year and potentially much higher and if you you know watch uh in many investor circles uh business circles some people are calling for mortgage rates as high as 10 percent and um you know the sentiment has turned quite negative which is normal right people and as as Bill mentioned uh the market didn't expect rates to go up initially so they were expecting rates to stay low or only increase very slowly and that sentiment has now switched to um the opposite end where they're expecting rates to go higher and higher he brings up something very interesting about the long-term inflation rate so his view is the long-term inflation is probably going to be higher than two percent it's likely not going to go back to a world of two percent inflation this is a crucial piece of information for us even as Real Estate Investors because if we know that inflation for example is going to be in the long term at four percent we can then expect the central bank to have the central bank rate somewhere between three and four percent right if that is the going inflation rate and therefore as investors our mortgage rates may consistently stay around five six percent so if we're looking at an investment deal to purchase right now or say in the next six months it may be worth looking at okay what is the yield this property is able to generate what is its income relative to its purchase plus Renovations and if we can invest in properties that have a yield that's north of six percent seven percent maybe even eight percent then in the long term we know that if rates eventually they will Peak and the real estate market also eventually will bottom out at which point if inflation exists and continues real estate can be expected to rise with inflation whatever that balances in terms of where the inflation rate sits then affects the interest rates that we will get on mortgages so if you can find a deal right now that yields seven eight nine percent in terms of the income that the the property produces a cap rate so to speak you're in a pretty good spot because if if you can buy it right now where prices are low and if the income is there to justify it then you may have a high interest rate right now and that interest rate may go down it may not go down to the world we had before of two percent variable rate mortgages but if you can create an investment where you earn eight percent on the value of that asset and you pay six percent up to say 80 percent of the value of the asset you're still in a positive cash flow territory and the debt that you have is over time going to erode in value with inflation and it is a manageable debt the income of the property can pay for it over time so hope you found that helpful uh now the market is pricing in hope you found that helpful again this is one person's viewpoint obviously any prediction when it comes to interest rates and inflation is just that it is a prediction so it has to be taken with a grain of salt but Bill Ackman is someone I consider uh to be a thought leader in this area and he has made some pretty good calls when it comes to inflation interest rates and um yeah in the last two years he's made some very good calls so uh I definitely will take this into account in my own investing right that yeah maybe we are approaching the terminal interest rate in the next short while and maybe it's not going to be as bad as the market scene seems to think it will be right now I hope you found that helpful until next time all the best
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