Ken Fisher Shares his Stock Market Forecast for the Rest of 2021

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결론: 경제는 과거 고성장에서 저성장 국면으로 복귀 중이며, 향후 6개월간 증시는 안정적이고 우량·성장주 중심으로 무난할 것이라는 시각. 경제 흐름: 봉쇄 이후 반등 국면을 지나 2020년 2월 이전의 성장 패턴으로 되돌아가는 중이며, 고성장에서 저성장으로 둔화되고 있다고 봄. 선행지수 등이 이를 지지한다고 언급. 기업 흐름: 자연 성장형 우량 기업은 실적이 양호하나, 반등 기대로 주목받던 기업들은 역풍에 직면하기 시작. 언론이 아직 충분히 다루지 않은 변화라고 강조. 정치 환경: 하원·상원 모두 여야 의석 차가 얇아 극단적 입법이 통과되기 어렵고, 가장 우려되던 변화는 축소되거나 무력화될 것으로 전망. 증세 등 '빼앗아 주는' 정책에 대한 공포가 줄어들며 시장 안정 인식이 커지는 중이라고 설명. 향후 전망: 2021년 하반기 대부분 동안 증시는 우호적일 것이며, 2022년 초 하원 선거구 재조정과 예비선거 시즌이 겹치며 정치적 불확실성이 있지만 시장은 비교적 무난하게 반응할 것으로 봄. 변동성은 감수할 수 있는 수준이라는 입장. 투자 조언: 장기적 관점을 유지하고, 성장이 둔화되는 세계에서는 성장 의존형 기업보다 크고 품질 좋은 대형주가 상대적으로 유리하다고 제시. 향후 6개월은 2020년 2월 이전 세계와 더 닮아갈 것이라는 전망.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. people always ask you know what's ahead in the next six months or so for a very long time in days of old on the legendary show that used to exist a wall street week with louis roukaiser you know he used to operate under the mantra of what's ahead for the economy why because that's one of the things people always worry about the fact is said simply that as i've said in a another video and as the leading economic index numbers indicate as i've said in a still additional prior video the economy is in a slow growth mode now having bounced back from the constrictions of the coveted lockdowns we have returned to the condition that we were in before february 2020 when cope struck in mass and the lockdowns were crammed onto our world and have had this fast growth that is now rolling over into slower growth as we continue the cycle that existed before these things happened to all of us as that goes on the fact is we revert to a world in so many ways that acts as it acted before february 2020 it acts in a world where things that can do well in a growth but low growth environment are rewarded things that require faster growth to do well are not rewarded so natural growth companies are doing well in stock market and their businesses are doing well companies that got all excited about the bounce back are starting to run into headwinds a point that the media has not yet much portrayed the quality companies are doing better now again than the lower quality companies which is different than earlier in the year as we were feeling the impact of the culmination of the bounce back economically and we continue to have a politically increasingly benign environment as it becomes increasingly clear that most of the scariest changes the biggest changes maybe the ones you hoped for the most i don't know that might go through government are going to be non-existent or watered down heavily now let me just point to that for a minute this congress doesn't allow much that's very extreme to get through because there's no margins in the house or the senate you have to actually get every basic democrat to line up to get anything through congress the ability to do that is diminished by the degree there's any disagreement about what should be done among democrats so very little actually gets done when you take anything legislatively anything you take from these to give to those the people you take from hate it more than the people who give to like it because people hate losses much more than they love gains and in politics we do that openly in public in front of everyone and as that fear of the taking from these to give to those people that get it like it but they think it's good but the people that lose it they think it's bad and they hate it more as that fear goes away we feel more benign about our more stable world our perception of the stability increases and as that happens stocks traditionally do well and that'll continue going on all of the rest of the next six months and into 2022 as we move into early on in 2022 both the full force of house of representatives congressional redistricting which will take a good couple of dozen congress people and move them into inaction and simultaneously the beginning of primary season which will take many more and move them into inaction so the market which of course will pre-price what we see in 2022 in the back half of 2021 we'll react to all of that relatively benignly the stock market will continue to be okay with volatility and it'll be an okay world and it's important for you as an investor to keep your eye on that longer term ball in a world that's growing but slower growth than what we've had where growth stocks and big high quality names tend to do better than companies that are dependent on growth to do well grow the economy to do well and that world is going to look a lot more over these next six months like the world before 20 20 february than the world between february 2020 and now