Ken Fisher Provides His Energy Market Forecast

요약 보기

에너지주는 코로나 봉쇄 후 공급 부족으로 유가가 급등해 강세를 보였으나, 이 초과 수익이 앞으로도 이어진다고 보기는 어렵다는 결론이다. 코로나 봉쇄 후 경기 회복이 V자로 예상보다 빨랐으나, 생산 설비는 줄이기는 쉽고 늘리기는 2~4년이 걸려 공급이 수요를 따라가지 못했다. 이 공급 부족으로 원유·천연가스 등 에너지 가격이 크게 올랐고, 이것이 에너지 기업 수익성과 주가 상승의 핵심 동력이었다. 미국 경기는 코로나 이전 수준으로 돌아왔지만 성장률은 점차 둔화될 것으로 봤다. 높은 가격은 생산자들의 증설 유인을 만들고, 이는 결국 가격을 누르고 에너지주의 잠재 수익을 낮출 것이다. 에너지주가 나쁘다는 뜻은 아니지만, 작년 말 이후의 강한 실적을 미래로 연장해 생각해서는 안 된다고 강조했다. 앞으로 에너지주는 성장률이 낮고 경쟁으로 수익성이 둔화되는 전통적 가치주처럼 움직일 가능성이 크다. 에너지 관련 자산(유가 등)의 방향에 대한 구체적 수치 목표는 제시되지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so there's a natural interest for multiple reasons in what's ahead for energy stocks and the rebound that they had coming off the constriction associated with the coveted lockdowns and that not only is logical but it also has in it some nuances that are good to understand one part of that is that the coveted constrictions to the economy from the lockdowns was effectively an unprecedented phenomena and uh globally as well as domestically and in that as you will recall when you think back on it there was a lot of fear that we would have no recovery or a very u-shaped recovery or maybe a w-type recovery and not just in energy which is of course when you say energy despite any yak yak that people might want to do for all intents and purposes energy is oil natural gas the high volume carbon products domestically and globally to a rounding error the other things are a tail on the dog the dog is is fossil fuel and in that whether it's oil or other commodities oil is thought of separately than other commodities which are often lumped together because oil's so big but they're fundamentally similar in that need exists to meet demand for plant capacity and like lumber and like steel and like quite a few other commodities the producers overreacted not expecting the fast bounce back in that v-shaped stock market recovery followed by economic recovery that came so fast and in shutting down that capacity you can shut down capacity whether temporarily or permanently much much faster than you can open up new capacity whether it's reopening a shutdown plant or creating a new greenfield operation from scratch if you want to open new oil operations it takes a fairly darn long period of time and same with many other commodities two to four years at a minimum and in that they didn't have enough capacity to meet the fast rebound and what that did was of course allowed prices to go through the roof and as prices went through the roof that's really the driving feature for energy profitability and the stocks do real well now with the economy in america not globally back to where we were before covid growth will moderate and with time at those higher prices there's incentive to add more plant and capacity from all of the varied and very diversified producers that exist and as that happens that'll moderate pricing and that'll moderate the potential of the energy stocks i'm not saying that energy stocks will do badly but i'm seeing the relatively strong performance of energy stocks from late last year will not and should not be extrapolated into the future they will act more like the traditional value plays that they were before with very moderate growth rates and slackened profitability from competition than they have in the interim period where they benefited from those fast rising prices that added to their profitability in the short term