저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥 1.8% 급락 후 단기 바닥권으로 판단. SPY는 6개월 저점 돌파했으나 1:1 목표가 645달러 부근에서 반등 가능성 높다고 주장. QQQ는 560~587달러 지지 구간에서 반등 예상. 트럼프의 지상군 투입 발언과 하르그섬 점령 이슈는 협상 국면을 열어 시장에 단기 호재로 작용한다고 해석. VIX는 상승 추세 리테스트 후 하락 전망. 반도체지수(SOX)는 321달러 지지 구간에서 이중바닥 가능성, 나스닥 반등 시 강한 반등 예상.
다듬은 글
hello. I am a beekeeper. Yesterday, the Nasdaq fell by about 1.8%, resulting in a highly volatile market, but for now, I think we are at a bottom level in the short term. So, let me explain my grounds regarding this . First of all, before I go into the details, I have a platform that is currently receiving investment from SoftBank .
I ended up writing this post on this platform . Of course, I am writing for free . I am writing a post called 'Delicious Chart,' and since I will provide the link in the pinned comment, I would appreciate it if everyone could sign up for Earth Plus and follow me . From now on, analysis posts will be uploaded here, and indicator events will also be held here.
So, if you would like to receive my trend indicators and things like that, please follow me, and I will post announcements regarding events . Now, if you look at S-Plus, all the famous people are there. This is a good example. Well, there's Dong-kkang, our Delicious Chart, and CEO Seo Jae-yong, a famous fund manager.
And Tax Accountant Lee Jung-yoon, CEO Park Doo-han , Professor Tabor Kim Young-hee, Manager Mi, and everyone else are here. Famous people. So now that I’ve started writing here, I would love for you to follow me . So, back to SP. First, the chart you are currently looking at is the SMP ETF Spy chart.
First of all, if we look at the current position, it has broken through all the lows . So, they said it was the lowest in six months . However, since it has broken through all the lows, you might ask if a major bear market is now entering in earnest. Actually, my previous view was that a bear market, or a sharp decline, would follow the moment the Nasdaq broke out of its weekly trend, and that is exactly what appears to be happening .
However, I think we are currently approaching a short-term rebound zone that has been sustained to some extent . First off, looking at the 1-bar chart, the Nasdaq... well, the SP chart... well, the two move exactly the same way. Regarding SP and Nasdaq, however, in the case of SNP, there is an upward trend line that has been continuing since November 21st .
It broke out on February 12th, rebounded, encountered resistance, and then dropped sharply. If you look at this, you could interpret it as Ozil breaking away while building momentum . But the downside target for this drops 1 to 1, doesn't it? The 1-to-1 digit is 649 based on SPTF, that is, spy standards.
So, for now, the daily target and the downward target have both been met, and you can draw a trend line like this. Based on the upward trend as of February 5, it could be interpreted that it broke out on March 2, received resistance through a retest, and then fell back down. Even looking at it this way, if you take a 1:1 look, the 1: 1 target is approximately $645.
In that case as well, we have now hit the target. When it reaches the vicinity of $645, there is actually a very high probability that the downtrend will end and a short-term rebound will occur . So, even if it drops in the short term, it won't fall significantly. Therefore, it appears to be a position where there is a high probability of a rebound within a larger framework as it rolls back up.
So, let's turn off the trend indicators and just look at the candles. Even after erasing everything cleanly and just looking at the handle shape, it has already deviated from the low price range. Everyone is likely feeling fear about this pattern now that it has broken through the lows, but in fact, it is not that common for it to plummet immediately like this just because it has broken through the lows.
Usually, in known cases, if this low is broken, a retracement wave often occurs. Because the fact that the reddish-brown color has broken out naturally indicates a strong downtrend, and in this case, everyone is looking to short at this position. So, when everyone is looking at the short, the probability of a short occurring is low.
I would like to say that there is actually a high probability of a sharp rebound. It feels like this. Take a look here, too. A sharp rebound occurs after breaking below the low. If you look closely here, you can see that it breaks the low here and rebounds sharply, and it breaks the low here and rebounds sharply as well.
And here, too, it broke out of the lows, instead found a bottom, and a major bull market emerged. Here. And even in this case, I broke away here and fell quite hard. At this time. Still, we pull it down by about 5%, but eventually bring it back up. A flow that curls up tightly. Even here, it is n't a major bear market.
Now, looking at the stone like this. Nevertheless, a trend emerges where everything breaks away from here and eventually rebounds sharply . Then, let's take a look at the seats now . Look at the current spot. It is a position where there is a high probability of a sharp rebound . Even if it falls in the short term, there is a high probability of a sharp rebound.
Because everyone is looking at a short position, and since we now know how to analyze charts, we believe that the current position is highly likely to rebound as it has almost completely filled the one-to-one target level for the downside . yes. Let's take a look at the SMP chart. Ah, let's take a look at the NASDAQ chart instead of the SP chart .
I'll check this one on QQQ as well. First of all, looking at the QQ chart, it appears that there is slightly more downside remaining. When plotted like this, if we plot a 1:1 target price, it comes out to approximately $560. But let's also plot a half target price . The half buoy value comes out to approximately $587.
Since I RSed, I should delete it and take a look at this case as well. If we connect the trend lines for December, let's check again by calculating the 1:1 target here as well. After hitting the high and low points and reaching the breakout target, the $568 level was the first target, and it continued to show support at that 0.5 level .
Then I'll try taking 0.75 as well . 0.75 Then the 0.75 digit is $581. Then, this position can be seen as a high rebound point. And you can try drawing this chart as well. If we connect it like this, in this case, it has kept the $600. But I ended up waking up. Then, you could interpret this triangle as a triangle pattern pouring downward .
Then this one could also try to reach the target . I tried it one-on-one, so I'll record it again. If you hit the high and low and place it at the breakout point, the 0.5 digit 0.5 5 digit is $578. The decline stopped here. Then 0.75 is 573. Then 567 comes out. Then, you can see that the 567 and 568 levels are points where there is a significantly high probability of a rebound occurring .
Because it is overlapping. And now at the level of 0.75 to 0.5, this level is also a point where a significant rebound is expected. Then, if Trump suddenly says something strange and the Nasdaq drops an additional 2% . Then, even if it drops by 2%, it is actually a position where there is a high probability of a sharp rebound .
So, based on the Nasdaq, the current level has already captured all the lows, and since there is a high probability that support candles will form around 0.75 and 0.5, there is a high chance of a sharp rebound even now. However, even if Trump says something strange, I view this as a position where a sharp rebound is highly likely to occur if it drops just about 2% more.
And I have done some analysis of the narrative view, relying more on the chart. I’ll read this together as a post I uploaded to my delicious chart. Let's watch for just one minute together. First off, if you look at it, the sharp drop yesterday actually occurred because Trump mentioned the possibility of deploying ground troops .
yes. As you can see, while the Harg Island spirit could potentially prolong the war, I believe it is more likely to act as a favorable factor in the short term. I'll take a look at it slowly. So, most people would interpret the seizure of Harg Island as a signal that the war is escalating, but I believe there is a strong possibility of interpreting it in the opposite way from a negotiation perspective .
For now, the card Iran holds is the threat of blockading Hormuz, but I believe that from the moment Kharg Island is pressured, a minefield for negotiations will emerge for the U.S. as well. This is because, from Iran's perspective, Kharg Island is the key artery of crude oil exports . So, it is said that more than 80% of crude oil exports take place on Kharg Island .
So, even if Trump doesn't actually occupy the island and just implements a blockade operation around it, from this perspective, the flow of funds is cut off, and if the flow of funds is cut off, it cannot go on for a long time anyway. I understand that Iran is determined to fight to the death, but given that the actual financial flow needed to sustain the war is now wavering, it seems likely that they might drop the card of blockading the Strait of Hormuz.
Even if they don't completely back down, I think there is a high probability they will adopt a somewhat submissive stance . So, if you look at the market right now— this is the SP 500 5-minute chart I drew—there was a sharp drop when Trump said he was considering deploying EHang ground forces, and another sharp drop when he said he did not want a ceasefire.
However, there was a sharp rebound, and then suddenly, another rebound occurred as news came out that Trump is considering ways to end the war . So, the current market is simply reacting to headlines in the short term . Yesterday was the fourth witch year, and the market continues to plummet whenever terms like "US Marine Corps occupation" or "Harg Island" come up.
However, if we think about this calmly, Harg Island is highly likely to act as a positive factor rather than a negative one. However, while it is interpreted as highly likely to act as a positive catalyst, I actually think the fact that SP and QQQ have reached a certain level of support is quite significant.
In addition to this, let's take a look at the VIXX chart. Let's take a look at VIXX's first candle. After clearing everything, the VIXX chart has been steadily rising, then took a hit, and is now showing a rebound, but I think VIXX will decline again. If we look at the reason, first of all, it maintained an upward trend for a while before breaking out.
And then a rebound occurred. But I faced resistance here. So, the position where the tail was attached this time—while Trump might have said so—is actually a spot that retests the upward trend. Breaking out of the uptrend. So, the retest resistance has been confirmed, and frankly, unless a sudden big long emerges, it is reasonable to expect a pullback from here.
So, I believe that VIXX has also reached a point where they are about to decline to some extent . And now, let's take a look at the semiconductor index as well. If you look at the source chart, while the Nasdaq and SP were all breaking below their lows, this one didn't even completely cover yesterday's bullish candle.
So, the Sasang Party is currently strong in semiconductors. And the $321 level I marked is a very strong position. The reason it is strong is that it marks the downside target and finalization point for the groups that have broken out of this triangular convergence, and if you look at the 20- week 2-hour average, it is also located at this position .
So, I mentioned earlier that even if the Nasdaq drops another 2%, it is now at its peak. If it does drop, it will likely hit this level as well. However, even if you pick it, I view this as a position where it could actually form a double bottom and a rising setup could emerge . Therefore, it still appears highly likely that the SOX will rebound more strongly when the Nasdaq rebounds .
yes. So, I will be holding a metrics event on Earthflas soon, so I would appreciate it if everyone could check the pinned link, sign up, and follow me . I will stop filming today's video here . thank you
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