저자: Mike · 외국인
요약 보기
2018년 2월 9일 다우 1,000포인트 이상 급락 장세를 다룬 데이 트레이딩 주간 정리 영상이다. 시장 상황: 다우가 장중 약 26,500선에서 24,000선 아래로 밀렸고, 당일 9건 거래 중 6건 성공·3건 소폭 손실이라고 밝혔다. 선물은 다우 -124, S&P -12, 나스닥 -32 수준이었다. 기술적 관점: 분기 차트 기준 큰 훼손은 없지만 일봉상 SPY가 취약해졌고, 다우의 200일선(SMA) 테스트 가능성을 열어둠. 공포탐욕지수는 16으로 극단적 공포 구간. 시나리오: 다음날 갭다운 후 반등, 금요일 매도 지속 시 월요일 추가 매도 후 화요일 반전 등 여러 경우의 수를 제시. 다만 확정 예측은 없음. 엔비디아: 실적 발표 후 시간외 상승했다가 일부 반납. EPS 1.72달러(예상 1.29달러), 매출 29.1억 달러(예상 26.8억 달러)로 부합 이상. 개별 이슈: WWD(우드워드)는 보잉 인수 협상 루머로 급등 후 협상 사실 없다는 발표로 반납. 이 루머로 항공우주·방산 관련주(KTOS, Arrow 계열, Rada 등)가 다음날 움직일 수 있다고 언급. 관심 종목(장 마감 후 워치리스트): ADVM, BLUE(Blue Apron), ATOS, 금 관련주(BTG 등), FIREEYE, GNC, HMNY, LITE, NXTD, ROKU, SNAP, TIDM, BUSE, Z(제외 가능성) 등. 단기 관찰 목적이며 매수 권유는 아님. 출연자 홍보: 발표 말미에 자신의 유료 구독 서비스(Zozo stock watch, 30일 30달러 발렌타인 프로모션)를 홍보. 예측 발언 요지: 시장 전반은 단기적으로 추가 하락 리스크를 언급하면서도 반등 가능성을 열어둔 중립-약세 톤. 개별 종목에 대해서는 명확한 방향 예측 없이 '지켜볼 종목' 수준.
다듬은 글
welcome everyone, this is Mike from Zozo Stock Watch, and this is your stock watchlist and market talk for Friday, February 9th. Wow, what a day in the markets. If you're a trader, you live for days like this. The market was down over a thousand points today. The Dow dropped more than 1,033 points for the day, and we did nine trades. Six of the calls I made worked brilliantly. No, just kidding, six worked really nicely, and we had three small losses, so six out of nine, a very nice day.
We played both sides. On the long side, we did a call on TZA, and we were watching the SPY to bounce off the 162 level, and then it did that. We got a beautiful trade in the SPY and a nice bounce in SOXS. It was a fantastic day, and honestly I'm exhausted, because we were going long, going short, and watching for the bounce. It was a very interesting day, especially toward the end, when the Dow moved down another 1,000 points. An exciting day, trying to figure out where the market would bounce and what it would do, and it worked out very nicely. Everybody in the room is green and happy and very excited about that.
Alright, let's get into it. As you can see here on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we were up at 26,500 and now we're below 24,000. The S&P futures are moving down a bit more. Right now, about 15 minutes to 7 my time, Eastern time, Dow futures are down 124, S&P futures are down 12 points, and Nasdaq futures are down 32.
I was talking about the monthly charts, actually the quarterly charts, on a lot of stocks. I don't know if anybody else was talking about it, but I was. When you stretch a rubber band too far and keep pulling it, eventually you get that snapback, and that's exactly what's happening now. There isn't much damage on this quarterly chart, but the SPY on the daily chart definitely looks more vulnerable than it did, and there's a possible touchdown to the 200-day SMA on the Dow. You can't rule that out. It won't go straight there. There will be pops and drops, but it looks like we could finally test that 200-day SMA for the Dow Jones 30.
Futures tonight are projecting, though it's still early in the session, that Asian markets will probably go down tonight. With margin calls going out and stops getting triggered, fear is starting to show its ugly head. The CNN Money Fear and Greed Index is down to 16. In the short term we're a little oversold, having dropped right back down to the 100-day SMA. So will we get pushed down tomorrow with a gap down and then a pop back up? If there's selling on Friday with no recovery, do we go into Monday with more selling, and then possibly a turnaround Tuesday? Several scenarios could play out. I think tomorrow we may gap down, though I don't know for sure. We'll see how futures look in the morning, but I'd expect a gap down in the morning and then a possible bounce Friday or maybe Monday. The Fear and Greed Index is at 16, so we're near extreme fear, and maybe a little oversold.
After the bell, NVIDIA had their earnings, and there was a little blurb from CNBC. You see the big pop in the after-hours in the video, giving a bit of it back because of market conditions, but NVIDIA really came through and beat earnings. Let me give you the numbers from the Trade Exchange in case you couldn't hear that report. Earnings per share came in at $1.72 against an estimate of $1.29, and revenue came in at $2.91 billion against an estimate of $2.68 billion. That's courtesy of the Trade Exchange.
The other story today, also from the Trade Exchange, was Woodward, symbol WWD. The stock popped like crazy on talk that Boeing was interested in a takeover, rising almost ten dollars on those rumors. Then after the bell, Woodward said it was not in talks with Boeing, and it gave it all back. That was one of the other stocks with a lot of action today, along with a lot of after-hours earnings. I won't go into all of them, there are just too many, but those are the main ones: NVIDIA and that Woodward story.
Let me update you quickly on the futures: currently Dow futures are down about 102, S&P futures are down 28, and Nasdaq futures are down 10.
Now, the watchlist for tomorrow. It's not easy to put a watchlist together on a day like today, so I was looking for stocks with relative strength. Don't hold me to these tonight, but here's the list.
First up is ADVM. It had a nice pop today with big volume coming in, so we'll see how it sets up on an intraday chart. AMPE got a bit of a burst toward the close, so I'll have that on watch. Blue Apron had a nice move today and got back over the 50-day MA, so we'll see if it wants to make a continuation move for an intraday trade. ATOS had a nice pop, with over 8 million shares traded in a sub-$1 name, so keep an eye on it. AVR also showed good strength today, another sub-$1 name with 2.4 million shares, so it might be interesting tomorrow, though it's a little small.
Gold is bouncing off the 400-day MA. Here's GLD. Gold is holding above its 50-day MA, so as fear sets in, we might see moves in some of these smaller gold stocks: AUY, IAH, MYE, and possibly AMN, so we'll see. BTG might be in play. FEYE had earnings after the bell and had a nice pop, holding the gains, so maybe there's some movement in FireEye tomorrow.
GNC I'll have on watch too. It's trying to get over the 4.50 area and hold above its 50-day SMA, the blue line you see there. HMNY was having fits and starts today. It finally got over the 8.25 level, pushed up all the way to 8.90, then pulled back with the rest of the market, but I'll have it on watch in case it makes a move. LITE has been relatively strong in light communications and equipment, with nice bounces, so that one's on watch too, though you may want a little spread on it, so be careful. NXTD was holding up well given the market conditions, with the Dow down a lot at some points. NXTD popped up into the close, reaching $2.70, and gave some back after hours, which is understandable after a big morning pop. We'll see if it does something tomorrow.
Roku is holding up okay and trying to get back over the 46-47 area, so I'll have Roku on watch. SNAP held the $19 area during the intraday, so we'll keep an eye on SNAP. TIDM had a big move in the after-hours with a nice pop, so that goes on watch. VSI showed some relative strength with a bit of a pop into the close and some volume. Z, when I first looked at it, was moving up into the after-hours, but then earnings came out and it sold off, so I probably won't have Z on watch. WWD: if the rumors heat up again tomorrow, we might get a trade there, so it's on watch to see if Boeing rumors come back. Arrow into space and some of the other names too, like KTOS, which is in aerospace and defense, and RDA, another aerospace and defense space play. Who knows, some of these might be in play tomorrow on those Woodward and Boeing rumors.
That's it for the watchlist. We'll keep it short and sweet. Thanks everybody for listening. This is Mike from Zozo Stock Watch. In case you don't know, I'm running a special for Valentine's Day: bringing back the 30-for-30 because I love you. You can try my service at Zozo Stock Watch. I'll put the link in the description box. It's $30 for 30 days. The Valentine's promotion starts now and probably runs through the end of the week, through Sunday. So go to the link, click sign up now, and you can join the service for $30 for 30 days. Everybody have a great evening, and we're back at it tomorrow.
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