저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 짐 로저스는 미국 경제의 다음 금융위기가 역대 최악일 것이며 일본이 먼저 흔들릴 수 있다고 경고하고, 금·달러·농업 등에 대한 입장을 밝힌다. [부채·위기 전망] 미국은 건국 이후 주기적으로 금융 문제를 겪어왔고, 다음 위기는 2008년보다 부채가 훨씬 많아 자신의 생애 최악일 것이라고 주장한다. 정부가 구제(bailout)에 실패하는 국가가 늘어날 수 있으며, 일본은 막대한 부채와 인구 감소, 정부의 무제한 돈 찍기 정책 때문에 가장 먼저 문제가 될 수 있다고 본다. [암호화폐] 2만 개 가까운 가상화폐 중 상당수는 버블이며, 일부가 성공할 수는 있으나 대부분은 실패할 것으로 본다. 정부가 익명성을 규제하면 현금·금으로 회귀할 것이라는 시각을 보인다. [금·현금·달러] 현재 금과 은을 많이 보유하고 있으며 금 가격이 더 하락하면 매수할 의향이 있다고 말한다. 금은 장기적으로 크게 오를 것으로 보지만 과열되면 버블이 될 수 있다. 위기 시 안전자산 선호로 달러는 오를 것으로 예상하며, 달러가 과대평가되면 매도 후 다른 자산으로 갈아탈 계획이다. [지정학·국제 질서] 미국의 TPP 탈퇴와 대러 제재로 중국·러시아·독일 등의 결속이 강화되고 있으며 유라시아 질서가 재편되고 있다고 본다. 역사적으로 이런 변화는 큰 사건으로 이어진 사례가 있다고 경고한다. [투자 테마] 러시아 농업·비료 관련 투자 성과가 좋았고 농업은 여전히 낙관적이라고 말한다. 중국의 일대일로(One Belt One Road)는 철도 인프라 확장으로 지리를 바꿀 대형 기회이며, 중국 철도 기업을 보유하고 있다고 밝힌다. [증시 전망] 향후 수년 내 시장 격변이 올 것으로 예상하며, 지수 투자는 장기적으로 성과가 좋다고 본다. 금리·채권 관련해서는 명시적 방향 예측이 없다. [출연자 입장] 짐 로저스는 미국 정부와 연준(옐런)의 위기 해결 능력을 신뢰하지 않으며, 연준이 본연의 역할을 벗어나 위험 요인이 되고 있다고 비판한다.
다듬은 글
Jim listen the things that people follow you for and that you really recognize for it's your financial acumen of course and I just wondered I heard an interview with you about six months ago that was on the internet it was broadcast everywhere from Business Insider and you were talking about the biggest bear market of your lifetime the biggest stock decline ever are you still on the track of that do you think that we're heading towards a real financial calamity well what I said was it and I'll say it again to be sure it's clear we have always had financial problems in the in the market in America or any country motivate since the beginning of the Republic and we will have more and I said that the next one is going to be the worst in my lifetime because there's so much debt you know 2008 Corti you remember what happened that was because of too much death but now for the debt is much much much higher you as you well know so the next one when it comes is going to be the worst we've ever seen now I hasten to tell you that Janet Yellen who's head of the central bank in America there's no we're never going to have financial problems again so if you believed you handed Yellen and the American central bank you should stop listening to me right now but my view is that when the next one comes with gonna be I happen to agree with you Jim and no surprise you've followed my work over the years and one of the things I note is that the nature of the Dead has changed back let's say ten years ago the debt was really focused in consumer mortgages and today the debt is really focused in consumer loans and governments fail you we're hoping to call you Porter you bail us out but when when you start seeing governments fail around the world boy that's when you're going to have serious serious problem many countries in many markets you're going to have government well you might even have countries fail when the government's themselves cannot cannot step up and bail people out do you think Jim it's reasonable to expect that Japan might be the first Society that we see go through this type of metamorphosis good question you know Japan has staggering debt as we as we all know they have a declining population and death is going through the roof and mr.
Abhi's says he's going to do whatever it takes man your print as much money as it takes and he'll spend as much money as it takes that cannot laugh I never occurred to me that it might start in Japan but Japan is certainly certainly going to be a big class by the way I own Japanese shares and I'm buying more Japanese yesterday just so you know but if I were ten year old Japanese I would get myself an ak-47 or I would leave because in his lifetime or her lifetime that place is gonna be a disaster they're interesting I want to move on to the virtual crypto assets crypto currencies and I wonder if you have any opinion at all whether you should own some Bitcoin or own some other crypto assets have you looked into this new asset class do you think it's all a fiction of the credit bubble or do you think there's something more to it well I had or sold any of them as I look at them now you know I read that there are 2,000 crypto currencies here in the last few a couple years and month anyway and if you look at the charts many of them have gone straight up now if I want I didn't tell you that was cryptocurrency oh if I just see what they will that's a bubble and then I especially if I showed you that some of them have already gone 2-0 in the last few weeks a few months so I don't know I know it sounds like heels like smells like above them developing does not mean it won't be successful look a huge bubble in the internet in the late nights you've heard of Amazon some companies have done extremely well even though that was a bubble and even though it's collapsed so don't think it doesn't mean that there won't be successes I don't know it's my basic answer Jim have you seen anything in Singapore or in your travels in Asia I mean nobody travels as much in China is that I know that as you do have you seen any of this crypto stuff in storefronts or in your travels in Asia yes I've actually seen a restaurant should take some of the local crypto currencies I don't know if they still do but certainly a few months it let's see in the summer yeah in the summer I saw restaurants and shops that had fun saying me take X whatever X hat currency happens B so I've seen it I almost but to you a bigger point or I'll try to make up on the computer the internet is going to it's already changed everything we know you are right it's going to establish it for you I'm certain most people's imagination including month of what's going to happen my children will never go to a bank or a post office or maybe even to a doctor in their lifetimes when that when they're adult said it everything is changed we know the world has a money problem a barrier source we know that everything has been changed by the computer and will be so yes the computer and the internet are going to change money as we know it if you go to China right now border people don't have money it's astonishing the minute by a cup of coffee and put their phone on the thing and there's a cup of coffee it's paid for I didn't look at me looks pretty funny when I say I have some cash I work to pay you if we don't longer take cash you know cash is not efficient and as you know governments don't like cash because a is expensive and B if they can't control you as much if they if you use cash but if you have everything on your computer then the government will call you up one day and say oh mr.
Rogers you've been training too much coffee recently you know they'll know everything you do and what are you doing so governments like to get rid of cash everybody's going to get rid of so it's all going to happen it's all going to be on the internet how it evolved I'm not smart enough I'll have to read your your publication three of the things could happen one government could issue their own cryptocurrency they could control it that way because governments don't like any of this they don't like go for that reason they want to be able to control everything you and I do and they want to know everything and by the way I was in Rick Lee China appears to be headed in that direction they have outlawed all of the other icos and they appear to be in the process of handing down a set of rules that require all crypto currencies to be trackable hey well as I say we have to watch what governments do because governments don't like you and me they'd like to have all the power themselves but the other thing of course is that if God forbid I should ever be some kind of disaster and there's no more internet even temporarily what are you gonna do go in your refrigerator bring out your Tomatoes and you could swap them or eat them but after that you don't have any internet worldwide or even regional watch you don't have any money but I in that case I would certainly have a little silver and gold or a few bags of sugar or something in the closet because Bart is gonna be the only way you'll survive so Jim I'm happy to tell you personally I just made my largest gold coin investment ever last week I called someone who you may know I don't if you do or not but his name is Van Simmons he's a coin dealer on the west coast and he invented PCGS the professional coin grading system and I asked van I just said hey listen outside of bullion coins what's the lowest premium / spot and he said circulated saint-gaudens and circulated liberties and I said send me X amount and I don't want to take X amount because you know the IRS might be listening the IRS might be listening but I made a very very for me a very large commitment to gold coins because I actually believe what you just said I think that sooner or later the governments are going to crack down on virtual currencies and the anemone and the anonymity will be lost in which case all of the drug dealers and money launderers are gonna be stuck and I feel like they're eventually going to go to gold because that's how that's how humanity has done it for as you know probably about 4,000 years so I feel very comfortable buying these high quality coins that are that have no premium / spot and I'm not making anyone a recommendation I'm just telling you I did with some cash that I had but I wondered Jim what's your position on gold currently have you been selling gold or buying gold or neither neither at the moment I I own a lot of gold and silver I haven't bought any serious gold and a few years I'm white waiting for go to go down more with at which point I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot more gold because before this is over gold is gonna go up a lot it's gonna get very overpriced they might even turn into a bubble I hope it doesn't turn into a bubble cuz then I'll have to sell and I don't like I don't want to ever sell my gold I want my children to have my gold someday but no I I am a potential buyer I have never sold any I am a potential buyer I have never sold any it's an index not as not as if somebody's managing it it's like the S&P yestiny goes down it goes down because market goes down and vice versa indexes are always more successful than bull market because nobody likes to buy a bear market is you very very well know so in the sense that they've gone down no people have not made money including me in those indexes welcome back to the Kaiser report I'm Max Keiser time now to turn to Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings a man who needs little introduction Jim welcome I'm delighted to be here max it's been a while headline from Bloomberg News around the time of the g20 read that China and Germany step up as US retires from world leadership that's the headline your thoughts about this is the u.s.
receding and China is sending and is there a relationship between China and Germany that is emerging Jim well first John trumpets first day withdrew from TPP trans-pacific partnership which immediately threw the Pacific Ocean area into China's hands when America basically left everybody had to turn to China and China of course turned to them so yes we're seeing that America is pulling out of the Pacific in some ways at the same time America put sanctions on Russia for a variety of reasons so that's pushed the Chinese and the Russians together so many people are getting very involved with inter Persians the Iranian czar also being forced into the arms of the Chinese by by America so you have just about everybody on the Eurasian continent turning towards the Asian that towards the China right now and yes everybody is the with the u.s.
is withdrawing or they're withdrawing from us or both get your thoughts on this that it seemed as though Germany is being pushed into the arms of Russia and can you speak on this a little bit no of course they got a trade with somebody and the Russians are right there the Russians have a lot of natural resources and China the Chinese and the Germans of the Germany's the second or third largest trading country in the world so it's natural that they're looking for new partners and the Russians are right there the Russians need the Germans the Chinese need the Germans the Germans need them but that's an incredible rebalancing of NATO potentially if you need seen I'm driving out there no max you go back and look at any period of history and you see that when these things start changing it snowballs and a lot of things happens I don't want to get to a word here but before the First World War all sorts of changes started taking place which were revolutionary at the time but we weren't so revolutionary had a big war as a result and we're seeing a lot of changes like that take place again let's hope it's not a war a few years ago you got a lot of press you were telling hedge fund managers to trade in their Lamborghinis for tractors and that agriculture would be a huge play certainly in Russia that's been correct you went very long Russia a few years ago that markets doubled that's been a huge winner and that's where the agriculture at play is really blossoming is that still on the table is that still happening big-time big-time of one of the best and I expect bad times to happen in the next few years two or three year we're gonna get to that but agriculture I'm optimistic about agriculture no matter what happens in the world for a variety of reasons but especially in Russia we put sanctions on the Russians so they had to buy their food from themselves they couldn't sell to other people so all this food in Russia is now booming I mean agriculture as a hue it's had a huge boom in Russia which is getting better but I'm a director of a Russian Ag fertilizer company a why are those numbers so misstated is it because the feds trying to keep interest rates low to keep their bonds rolling on those insolvent banks max you believe governments what's happened to you you believe you get your investment advice from the government oh my god what has happened you've grabbed the reins device from the government oh my god what is happened you've become deranged it's kind of tough times ahead for markets and I guess the US and you know you've we've talked many times with the dollar and the fate of the dollar it's it looks like a great short but it has been resilient are we now on the cusp you do you think of more of a dollar weakness and kind of this new world order emerging and market turmoil well I expect market turmoil in the neck a couple of years but one result of market turmoil is the dollar is going to go higher because people are going to look for a safe haven safe haven now they think the US dollars a safe haven for historic reasons and because there's not much else these days so I own a lot of US dollars expecting the turmoil to drive the dollar higher I hope what I plan is when the dollar gets overpriced it may turn into a bubble depending on how bad the turmoil is and people flee to go somewhere my plan is to sell it and buy something else you see how easy it is to get rich be responsible for my first million I think my Bitcoin when it was $5 if you recall Jim that's just yes yes I I wish I were smart enough to about bid I was trying to return the favor or dumb enough to buy Bitcoin it wouldn't have mattered it's gone up a great deal your thoughts on this Chinese one belt one road policy that seems like they're investing in infrastructure while in America and them in the New York the train system is falling apart there's no investment there your thoughts you fly into JFK Airport in New York your immediate in a third world Airport and you get in a third world taxi and you ride on a third world highway to a third world five-star hotel it's not often that geography changes max and when the Spanish and Portuguese started sailing around the world geography changed the railroad 200 years ago changed geography well the Chinese are now changing jari this is an unbelievably important and exciting thing some people are gonna make vast fortunes some are gonna just say okay the one belt one Road it's this huge infrastructure play you are the macro guy what do you when you drill down and youth like okay I want to be I want to be a part of this I want my money working here how do you approach that what do you look at give people a look inside into your process well I owned some obviously people who build railroads and have trains are going to do well because it's all most of its going to be on the railroad that's one way to play I own some Chinese railway companies but you look at a map it's gonna go through Kazakhstan but something's gonna change in Kazakhstan all the places where the trains are gonna go are gonna change dramatically you've heard of Denver Colorado Denver wouldn't exist if geography hadn't changed and they hadn't put in the railroad that's gonna happen throughout Eurasia and it's gonna have gigantic changes moving right along so you have been vocal recently that you are looking for some market turbulence and some what do you max it every four to eight years through since the beginning of the Republic we've had problems in the US economy it always has happened I don't know why it doesn't matter it always happens and it always will now Janet Yellen the head of the Federal Reserve in America says it's not going to happen anymore everything is solved now well if you take your advice from her you will think I'm wrong but my view is it's been over eight years since we had our last turmoil in America it's coming again there are many reasons it's coming again and then next time is going to be worse than anything in my lifetime than anything in my lifetime because in 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt max since 2008 the debt has gone through the roof that has gone through the roof that has gone through the roof all over the world so the next time we have a problem and we're going to have one unless you believe Janet Yellen it's gonna be very very bad it's supposed to be the lender of last resort not to buy our first order right they buy stuff they buy stuff and they have said that they can buy anything that can buy gold mines and buy stocks they can do whatever they want that's if I liquor stores who knows what they'll do to save us but that's a repudiation of their mandate in the strongest sense there they are become a rogue element in the economy they're undermining the economy they're dangerous Jim you've just noticed that things are going wrong in Washington DC max why don't you watch your show
Comments 0