저자: BrianShannon · 외국인
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2018년 2월 9일 기준 미국 증시 주간 하락 후 반등 일이었으나 발행자는 추세 전환을 확신하지 않음. 주요 지수: 주간 S&P500 약 5% 하락, 나스닥만 연초 대비 플러스, 반도체 소폭 하락. S&P500은 200일 이동평균선 부근에서 지지 시도가 있었고, 2016년 말 이후 처음 닿은 자리. 피보나치 61.8% 되돌림과 맞물려 단기 바닥 가능성 언급. 그러나 일봉·30분봉 기준으로 하락 추세 신호가 남아 있음(5일선 하락, 거래량가중평균가 아래). 반등 후 5일선이 평탄화되는 것을 확인하고 스윙 매수를 고려하는 시나리오 제시. 러셀2000: 200일선 위에 있지만 연초 대비 크게 부진. 1월 거래량가중평균가 부근에서 매수세 등장, 추가 상승 전 횡보 필요. 반도체: 지난 여름 저점 기준 지지 확인이 부족, 5일선 하락 중. 재반등 전 조정 필요. 바이오: 109 부근 지지 기대했으나 확인되지 않음, 100 수준 지지 가능성 언급. 반등 시 매도 물량 가능성. 비트코인: 평균 진입가 8,036 기준 일부(약 1/3) 87,50 부근 익절. 5일선·거래량가중평균가 부근 눌림 확인 후 추가 관찰. 금: 주봉상 200일선 위에서 저항 돌파 준비 중. 1,305 부근 50% 되돌림 눌림 매수 관심 언급, 1,700달러 상단 가능성 제시. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 반등은 인정하나 본격 상승 추세 전환에는 신중하며 확인 신호 필요.
다듬은 글
it is Brian Shannon from alpha trends done that today it was Friday the 9th of February 2018 the market had a pretty rough week let's look at the numbers first and we'll go back to that chart in just a moment we lost basically 5% across the board for equity indexes for the year we have the Nasdaq of being the only equity major ETF that I look at here positive year-to-date semiconductors down just slightly but today was obviously a big bounce back day after a lot of bleeding this week there was big news in the volatility market I don't trade volatility I'm not a volatility expert so I'll leave that for other people to talk about just as I don't talk about fundamentals what I talk about is the technical analysis and looking at the what people are actually doing with their money and when we look at the longer-term chart of the S&P 500 this is a weekly each candle represents one week we have a 10 20 30 and 40 week moving average roughly equal to a 50 day 100 150 and 200 no doubt you heard that we touched the 200-day moving average today and that was the first time since late 2016 just before the election in fact the market had sold off on fears about the election and we've been straight up from there not straight up of course but here we are right now right on that 200-day moving average so let's take a look at it from a daily perspective and you can see on the daily timeframe here the is that 200-day moving average so it's more accurate because we're looking at days versus 5 days in a week times 40 weeks but the point is that buyers did emerge there was kind of the last level that people were looking at as potential support and as I always say we only no real support after the fact people have been trying to buy this market as it pulled back to the 20-day moving average the 100 the 100 was right here the 150 is right there today intraday it was the 200-day moving average well we look at as you know I look at volume weighted average price levels a lot and when we look at some of the key volume weighted average price levels you can take a look at for instance the volume weighted average price from the beginning of 17 and we had found support on that in 17 right here well that showed up right at the 200-day moving average so if we also take a fibonacci off of that level what we see here is that we came down pretty much exactly to a 61.8% retracement of that so it seems like it's likely here that we've made a near-term bottom in this market and it is possible that we could get a retest of that let's take a look at the intraday time frame here we see the 30 minute time frame and when we look at the 30 minute time frame that simply means that each candle represents 30 minutes worth of data so when we back it up a little bit we can see here that basically here's fit you know here's January 30th we took what we were looking at this week was 1 we were below this declining 5-day moving average and I always say that we want to look at the market from a swing trade perspective as guilty till proven innocent while we're below a declining 5-day moving average meaning that we don't expect these big bounce rallies to hold why we're below that 5-day moving average we also looked at the volume weighted average price from the January break down and you can see that this is exactly where the sellers emerged and we saw that in real time at alpha trends on Wednesday morning and then at for the week we broke down below the weekly volume weighted average price which was also then followed by the volume weighted average price from the load that we saw on Tuesday when that happened that's when we had confirmation that the next leg was in fact lower so here's where we are now we've got mixed messages on various timeframes we're still below the volume weighted average price from this peak we're also below the volume weighted average price year-to-date meaning the average price that people have portrayed the sp500 the average long is engaged in the market at 273 and a half but so is the average short so the average long is losing money year-to-date and of course month today let's do this let's back that all out and try to look forward rather than just backwards so we can try to figure out how this trend might emerge and show us a better low-risk opportunity let's say Monday morning we got you know we continue up towards that five day moving average and then we pull back and maybe don't come down and test it maybe we do something like this and then what would happen is that we'll give this five day moving average an opportunity to flatten out and then we would want to get long for a swing trade perspective right here with a stop underneath the most recent relevant higher low whichever makes most sense to you personally so we're still I'm still treating this market as suspicious it's good to see that we did get a big bounce this bounce you know we're seeing big volume in here and volume and volatility tend to peak at turning points but we are still looking at a market that you know even at the end of the day today we came right up to the volume weighted average price from the low that we saw on Tuesday morning when we look intraday even we can use these volume weighted average price levels in ways that a lot of people aren't using them such as the volume weighted average price from the day we were below most of the day but then the morning low showed that it had from this volume weighted average price some support in there and then we got back above the volume weighted average price of the day and from the low and that's where we saw that real surge in the afternoon but that's more for day traders and I really don't think that most people should be day trading in a volatile market like this there are more opportunities for day trades but again it's a pretty difficult racket and not appropriate for most people that is day trading then as that kind of similar story here of course the daily timeframe we're still above that 200-day moving average the 200-day moving averages down here at 148 but we did see that a volume an important volume weighted average price did you know pretty much hold here and that is from the July lows of last year that we were looking at this as a potential support level and we only know support after the fact we look at potential levels of support and we say here's where we want to look at the market a little bit more carefully and then for whatever your time frame is drill down to a shorter term time for him to look for actual evidence the volume weighted average price from the beginning of 20-17 is down at 1:45 and the 200-day moving average here so those aren't really significant but you know same kind of story here and this is what I was showing subscribers was a potential scenario earlier in the week we of course didn't have that instead we're stuck below the volume weighted average price from this move and again in the Nasdaq that's exactly where the sellers came in on Tuesday I'm sorry on Wednesday morning and now from the volume weighted average price from the low we're still below from Monday Tuesday's low that is we're still below that and we're below a declining 5-day moving average so once again let's expand this range here so we can try to figure out not just what's happened but what could potentially happen maybe we run up through that V whap up towards the 5-day moving average and even through it let's say we moved up through it I would still be suspicious because the 5-day moving average is advancing now there would be a great day trade in there but if it comes down like this and then what we would have is the 5-day moving average could flatten out the volume weighted average price off of that January breakdown could be absorbed and then we would be looking at now it's okay to look to buy for a swing trade you might say well look at all that upside that we're missing by not being involved you know what most people most people they only see this low and how far we've come from there what they don't see or that what they don't feel is the people who tried to buy each one of these levels on the way down and the people who bought into here who thought they were so smart and hopefully they got out with a profit on that rally but the point is it's still not set up for a sustainable move back to the upside the Russell 2000 was pretty interesting because this market it closed above the 200-day moving average but we were well below it and the key level here today in fact was the volume weighted average price from January of 2017 let's do this let's take a look at a clean chart with nothing on it except for two volume weighted average price levels one from January of 17 and look where those buyers emerged today I don't know if it's a coincidence but it's certainly worth noting the the Russell 2000 continues to underperform overall and it is below the volume weighted average price from January 30th it's below a declining 5-day moving average etc so maybe the same type of scenario develops something like this and then it can continue to move higher the semiconductors I had pointed out earlier this week that we had the potential it were an important level to watch with the volume weighted average price off of last summer's lows and we looked like we were trying to stabilize there briefly on Thursday but when we take a look at the intraday action it really didn't show much evidence at all we couldn't get above the you know what was Thursday's volume weighted average price here which of course today became a two-day volume weighted average price the main point is we still have a declining 5-day moving average so we have you know very short term the buyers took back control today that's good it's holding above the two-day volume weighted average price but you know the average of the last three days we're right at it the average of the last four days people are still losing money the average of this past week people are losing money so that's not a stable base of support to rally from instead we need to back and fill and continue to absorb some of that selling pressure before it can sustain a move higher we're in a key level of importance and significance and you know what we want to see is that we did undercut this prior low and we undercut that volume weighted average price and the lows from today Friday will be very important I think going forward from here biotechs we started out the week looking at this saying let's look for potential support near the 50-day moving average because not only is it the 50-day moving average but it's a nice cluster of volume weighted average price levels that from these previous highs and lows but what did we see when we got towards that 109 level did we see any evidence that buyers were gaining control absolutely not this is that 109 level what we saw instead was a rally that we were highly suspicious of because declining 5-day moving average and sure enough it broke back down and saw continued lows where we ended up showing these lows showed buyers come in with is is again an interesting level January of seventeen the volume weighted average price we spoke about this all last year about how this was a bear trap we tested it late in the fourth quarter and tested it once again today so I think that most likely you know but market doesn't care what I think but most likely will continue to hold above the 100 level in here but what we want to see is evidence what we have right now is you know since this breakdown began the average price is up near 110 and we have a declining five day moving average so same story maybe we rally straight up to that level and the people who bought today look to take some off if that happens because what's most likely to happen would be something more along the lines of this and then you would have that backing and filling and perhaps then it could sustain a rally higher when at one thing we did this week was take it we're actually just today was take some profits off in our Bitcoin trade for alpha trends we're long at an average of eighty 36 and we took some off today at 87 50 was our target it did end up hitting that I think Bitcoin is probably making a low but what I'm really kind of expecting we were out of about a third of our position what I'd really like to see over the next day or two would be a pullback down of the five day moving average and that's also approximately the volume weighted average price off of the recent low that reason low is also the biggest volume Bitcoin has ever traded keep your eyes open next week for a post about gold I've kind of spoken about it a little bit but gold is above a rising 200-day moving average it looks like it's getting ready to break some resistance here on this weekly timeframe I had mentioned in a tweet that I was looking for a pullback down towards the 50% retracement that was over in here I said it looks like it should pull back down towards about 1305 which is a 50% retracement in the location of the 50-day moving average when we look at it more intraday timeframe were below a declining 5 10 and 20 a moving average and here on the 15-minute chart we can see that with more clarity so if you're a pullback buyer you want to start to get interested in here I'm going to lay out details of how I'm gonna trade gold and why I think that it has the potential to head up towards about 16 $1,700 an ounce
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