원문 보기
Jim Rogers is an investing legend a World Records holder and a best-selling author he co-founded the legendary Quantum Fund with George Soros which generated returns of more than 4,200 percent over ten years Jim retired at 37 and later drove around the world twice he's one of the founding fathers of the boots-on-the-ground approach to investing in emerging and frontier markets around the world I recently sat down with Jim a fellow resident of Singapore to talk about markets below as an extract of that conversation about biggest threats investors should be worried about today and how they should protect themselves Washington and the central bank Kim Jim what do you view as the biggest threats to markets Jim Washington DC is the major threat to all of us because they want to do things like start a trade war and they want to get at war with somebody whether it's Iran North Korea whoever but North Korea's calmed down mr.
moon in South Korea has done a very good job there are lots of people that are bashing Russia I have no idea why they're bashing Russia and the central bank in America they've brought up gigantic debts on their balance sheet they've pushed interest rates to the lowest in recorded history interest rates have never been this low anywhere in the world with the result that debt has skyrocketed everywhere in the world interest rates are going to go higher again they've already started so what I'm afraid is going to happen is as interest rates rise you're going to see problems in the markets everybody's going to call the central bank and say oh you must rescue us now the central bank is made of bureaucrats and academics they don't know what they're doing they will panic they will try to rescue us I don't know what they'll do print more money buy assets whatever they're going to do is not going to be the right thing and so we're going to have worse problems hope I can survive the next bear markets because it's going to be horrendous and it's going to be a big mess it's going to be the worst in my lifetime will I say that some people say well your bloomin do know we've always had bear markets since the beginning of time Janet Yellen who was the head of a central bank in America until recently said no we're not going to have bear markets ever again solve the problem she said we're not going to have bear market I know we are 2008 we had a bear market it was horrible because of too much debt well Kim debt all over the world is much much much higher now people have talked about austerity nobody's practicing austerity it's going to be a horrible nightmare and I hope I survive it I hope we all survive but I know just having read enough history that a lot of people are not going to survive it exploding debt around the world Kim you've often talked about the explosion of debt in markets can you tell me some more of your thoughts on that Jim well Kim as you know debt worldwide has boomed in the past 30 years but especially in the past ten years in 2008 the world had a big problem because of too much debt since 2008 the debt has skyrocketed everywhere and so the next time we have a problem it's going to be a doozy I mean the Federal Reserve alone in Washington its balance sheet is up by five hundred percent in ten years it's staggering what's been going on in the world no matter where you look in 2008 China had a lot of money stored for a rainy day it started raining China started spending the money and helped rescue the world but even China has a lot of debt now going to see bankruptcies in China the next time the world comes to an end and that's going to surprise a lot of people it's going to surprise me and I know it's coming I'm telling you it's coming but it's going to surprise a lot of us and that's just going to make the bear market even worse the looming trade war Kim what are your thoughts about the us-china trade war Jim mr.
Trump for many years has been keen on trade or wars so it seems to be in his soul in his psyche he said that trade wars are easy and are good that's totally inaccurate but it doesn't matter he's the President and even if he has wrong information which most politicians do he will do what he can get away with and so he wants trade a Wars the people around him that he keeps bringing in they're all keen on trade wars nobody has ever won a trade war but they don't know that and if they know that mr.
Trump thinks he's smarter than history he can control history I don't think he is but we'll find out if it happens then when the problems start coming it's going to be worse than any of us can imagine it's not going to be good you've seen previous trade or Wars nobody has ever won they've never helped anybody maybe some in the short term but even when trade wars helps some people they hurt other people even in the same country so they may happen if they happen you're going to have a lot of readers because everybody's got to know what to do you have job security because somebody has to report it and somebody has to tell us what to do how to protect yourself Kim in anticipation of all of this eventually happening what does the cautious investor do today to protect or insulate himself Jim well they should read your newsletter everything I know I learned from you guys for goodness sakes also agriculture is probably going to do well even if the world comes to an end because agriculture has already been going down the tubes for 35 years now agriculture has been terrible I would suspect that's a place to rescue yourself probably the best thing to do is to become a farmer I'm not going to become a farmer but if people want a new life outdoors especially in China the Beijing government is doing everything it can to help farmers and to help the countryside so agriculture especially China is a good place to be I own US dollars I own a lot of US Dollars not because I have any confidence or faith in the US dollar America's the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and the debts going higher and higher but when there's turmoil people look for a safe haven people think the US dollar is a safe haven and it is less bad at least people think it's less bad than things like the Euro the Swiss franc the British Pound so where else are they going to go what will happen is US dollar will get overpriced maybe turn into a bubble depending on how bad the turmoil is and I hope at that point I'm smart enough to sell probably what will happen is as the dollar goes higher gold will go down all currencies will go down including gold old usually goes down when the dollar goes higher so the dollar will get overpriced turn into a bubble will sell at the top gold will be down will buy gold jim has told me in the past he also recommends owning gold and silver maybe the Chinese renminbi will be convertible by then who knows those are some of the things that often happen when the dollar goes higher and there's prices
Comments 0