저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏의 버크셔해서웨이 2023년 4분기 실적은 예상 부합이었고 현금성 자산이 167billion달러로 사상 최대. 버핏은 향후 수개월 실적이 시장을 소폭 상회하는 수준일 것이라 언급. JP모건 CEO 다이먼은 연착륙 확률이 시장 기대 70~80%보다 낮은 약 50% 이하라고 경고하며 경기침체 위험을 강조. 연준 금리 인하 시점은 연말 또는 6월 등으로 전망이 하반기로 밀리는 추세. 유럽에서는 Granolas 11개 기업이 STOXX600 상승을 주도하며 집중 리스크 지적. 영상 출연자 발언 기준 자산별 1~3개월 예측 발언은 명시적으로 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett may have succeeded once again, in fact his Berkshire Highway recorded record numbers in Q4 2023 and probably continued to amaze investors. But how exactly did it go and in the meantime there is also another piece of news that we will comment on today. Because in fact one of the most important bankers in the world said that in his opinion the market should calm down its enthusiasm and that the risk of recession is still present.
But why are these two of the themes that we will look at today together with the European theme and more specifically the magnificent seven but who will they be? Let's say that we have many questions to answer from the greatest investor in the world to the SEO of JP Morgan James Diamond who has, let's say, had his say and finally we will move towards Europe as usual but we remind you to leave a nice like and subscribe to the channel and also we remind you that in these days the promotion is active to receive our ebook on company analysis for free, you will find all the indications and how to do it in the description.
So coming to us this Saturday, the holding company of the greatest investor in the world has Berkshire Hathaway reported its quarterly results and this time too it did not disappoint investors. One thing that many people do not know is why, unlike many other companies, Berkshire Hathaway reports its financial data on Saturdays and not perhaps during the week before or after the market opens.
Well, because Warren Buffett wants investors to take the time necessary to analyze in detail and see all the data relating to the quarter just ended. In short, he does not want investors to be driven by the rush of the markets after hours or in premarket. Now coming to the data, Berkshire Hathaway recorded profits of almost $8.5 billion, up 28% compared to the same period of the previous year.
For the whole of 2023, profits were a good $37.3 billion, up 17% on an annual basis. And thus also closing the best year ever. If we also consider the earnings generated by various investments, profits actually rise to $96 billion. In addition to this, Warren Buffett is also surprising for another reason: the amount of profits.
immense amount of liquidity that he is accumulating to give you an idea. In the last quarter he said he had a record amount of 157 billion dollars in liquidity, where this term does not only mean cash in various accounts but also short- term investments and therefore easily liquidated. Here, after 3 months, this record has already been surpassed because at the end of the quarter he had 167 billion dollars in liquidity.
The reason is that Buffett expressed himself on this issue some time ago, stating that unlike when he was young and perhaps he saw more opportunities on the market than the money he had, now the situation has somehow reversed and the money he has is more than the opportunities available. Since he is also above all a value investor, his speech is understandable given that currently the price earnings, that is, the market price in relation to its average earnings of the S 500 is 27, which is a little higher than the historical average.
In reality, there is also another reason why he has so much liquidity. In fact, with his holding company, Buffett also wants to be a resource to help his country in times of difficulty. The reason for this is that he is also a value investor. which is among the main benefactors in the United States we also have other examples such as the 2008-2009 crisis since Buffett at the time invested heavily in Gold and a few years later intervened to avoid the bankruptcy of Bank of America but at this point if we said that the quarterly report went well How come the stock remained practically stationary on the stock market Well because in the meantime this result was largely expected by analysts according to many newspapers and more than anything there was also something that perhaps did not convince which is the guidance of the company which was not so enthusiastic As perhaps others expected In fact Buffett stated that Berkshire Highway in the next few months could obtain results only slightly better than the market and the reasons are mainly two one we said before namely the fact that he does not see big opportunities on the market and if he does not use all that liquidity it is difficult for him to obtain excellent numbers Berkshire is still an investment company and in fact in the call with shareholders Buffett said that many US companies are not even considering them while the few that they have under their eyes do not have any interesting prices.
In addition, I also said that outside the United States, at the moment they do not see any great investment opportunities. And this perhaps should not be surprising given that Buffett has always said that he firmly believes in the economy of his country and that it was one of his great fortunes. Precisely that of having been born right there, the other reason is linked to the colossal dimensions that the company has reached.
And again according to Buffett, they prevent it from growing at too high a rate. In fact, looking at it from the outside, it has a market capitalization of 885 billion dollars and has 370 billion dollars invested, 164 of which are in Apple, so with such large data, even making a plus 10% a year is something that is absolutely not a given in the quarterly report.
Therefore, there was no talk of purchases or even of particular sales. In fact, to the short list of companies that leave Buffett calm and that he would like to keep in his portfolio for life, this year, according to many, Occidental Petroleum and the five Japanese financial conglomerates that he had purchased during the summer have been added to this list, as well as Coca-Cola, American Express and some other stocks.
In any case, it is It's true that Berkshire has admitted that it can't do much better than the market, but I said that it is also much less volatile and therefore has a lower risk in some way. In fact, there are almost 50 different instruments in the company's portfolio and therefore we cannot say that Buffett hasn't thought about diversifying his investments in some way.
However, coming to how this event has been interpreted, the basic idea that has emerged is that an improvement in the US economy is expected in the coming months. Here there are also those who don't agree and we are talking about Jamie Diamonds or JP Morgan, the largest US bank by assets, and he stated that the market currently has expectations that are too high and unrealistic and that the soft landing is not so obvious.
According to the bank's SEO, investors expect a soft landing with a probability of between 70 and 80%, while he believes that the real probability is around 50% or even less. In addition to high interest rates, the markets are also dealing with the quantitative tightening of the Federal Reserve, that is, the monetary policy with which the Central Bank is implementing it.
reduces its bond holdings to reduce the amount of money in circulation and even in this case the goal is always to curb the inflationary surge seen in the last two years although he does not expect a tragic situation like the one experienced in the 2008 securities crisis according to him the US economy is slowly heading towards a recession in particular he believes that interest rates could see the first cuts towards the end of the year while 50% of Fed members expect the first 50 basis point reduction to take place in June and if this recession were to actually occur according to his analyses it would mainly hit the commercial real estate and regional banking sectors But it would instead have limited macroeconomic impacts If you remember from the previous videos we saw that the same Fed members expected the first cut in March and then it was somehow moved to April So we are slowly seeing the forecasts move towards the second half of the year just as Jamie Diamond said who is really right Well only time will tell finally let's move to Europe because Goldman Sachs has We have all learned to recognize the term "magnificent set" which actually refers to the seven US companies that have performed best in 2023, namely Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla, which have driven stock market prices up.
According to Goldman Saxes, something similar is also happening in Europe. In fact, in the last year, only the shares of 11 companies have represented half of the gains in the Stocks 600 index, which has been recording a 3.5% increase since the beginning of the year, and these are GSK, Rochet, ASML, Nestle, Novartis, Nov Nordisk, L'Oral, Louis Vuitton, AstraZeneca, SAP, and Sanofi.
In the last 12 months, they have recorded these performances, respectively, and Sanofi is practically at par. As you can see, we are not talking about extraordinary numbers, especially when compared to the triple-digit increases of US tech companies, even if the volatility has been decidedly lower, some are even in the red.
Yet, added together, they represent a quarter of the market capitalization of the entire Stocks 600 index. Goldman Saxes expects this to be the case. The group of companies called Granolas, taking the initial of each company, has a compound annual growth of 7% for the whole of 24 and 25 5, while according to their estimates the rest of the index will grow by just 2%.
Obviously, as in the case of the magnificent seven, this could represent a problem in terms of concentration and the fact that so few companies influence the performance of the entire index must not be underestimated in any way. Having said that, guys, we have reached the end of the video. We hope you enjoyed it and that you learned something new today.
We remind you to leave a nice like, subscribe to the channel and if you are interested in our ebook on business analysis, you will find the way to get it for free in the description. We'll see you next time. Bye everyone.
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