저자: BillAckman관련언급영상의진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼의 미국 장기채 매도 전환 소식과 알파벳·마이크로소프트·비자 실적 해설, 비트코인 ETF 기대감을 다룬 영상으로, 구체적 매매 권유보다는 시장 상황 설명 위주다. 빌 애크먼은 30년물 미국채에 대한 공매도 포지션을 뒀다가 최근 X(구 트위터)를 통해 청산했다고 밝힌 것으로 소개된다. 금리 상승과 지정학적 리스크 증가를 이유로 든다. 미국 10년물 금리가 약 5% 부근, 2007년 이후 최고 수준이라고 언급되며, 일부 애널리스트가 6%까지 갈 수 있다고 주장한다. 주식시장 평균 수익률 7%와 비교해 주식 매력이 떨어질 수 있다는 논리다. 알파벳(구글)은 실적 발표 후 시간외에서 5% 이상 하락했다. 매출 766억 달러(+11%), 이익 197억 달러(+42%)로 좋았으나 클라우드 매출 884억 달러가 예상 864억 달러에 못 미쳐 하락 요인으로 지목됐다. 마이크로소프트는 시간외 6% 상승. 매출 565억 달러, 순이익 223억 달러, EPS 2.99달러로 예상을 웃돌았다. 액티비전 블리자드 인수 효과가 게임·서비스 매출 성장으로 이어질 것이라 전망됐다. 비자는 매출 86억 달러, EPS 2.33달러로 소폭 상회했으며, 팬데믹 이후 여행 수요와 국경 간 거래 증가가 실적을 견인했다고 설명된다. 비트코인은 3만 5천 달러까지 올라 2022년 봄 이후 최고치를 기록했고, 블랙록·피델리티의 현물 ETF 승인 기대가 상승 요인으로 꼽힌다. 다만 SEC의 규제 우려와 루머성 뉴스가 섞여 있다는 점도 언급된다. 대상 자산 중 개별 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 1~3개월 예측 발언은 확인되지 않는다.
다듬은 글
How many things are happening on the markets especially in this period of quarterly reports and we could not help but open them together with you here on the channel Today in fact we will talk about some giants of the latest available results published by these companies I am referring guys to Google Microsoft and Visa not only this the name Bill Hackman tells you by chance something he is one of the largest managers of American Edge Fund and in the last few days he has taken a step back on what he thinks of the US economy finally We will also return to talk about crypto because Bitcoin has returned to the values of over a year ago So make yourselves comfortable If you have not already done so, subscribe to the channel and leave a nice like on the video to support our work of disclosure and now let's start immediately with the latest statements by Bill Hackman that have left several analysts perplexed the billionaire investor known for his particularly aggressive investment style which often involves taking large and controversial positions in August had placed a bet against the 30-year US Treasury bonds through his Edge Fund the reasons that led him to take this decision were mainly two on the one hand guys there was the desire to create a hedge position from the impact of higher long-term interest rates and therefore to protect his equity investments on the other hand it was a real speculative bet in those days he said that the structural changes underway such as the degl bailiffs and the energy transition would fuel persistent inflationary pressures let's remember guys that bond prices move inversely to yields so Hackman's bet against bonds was in fact a bet on higher rates although he is one of those who has made the most talk about himself in reality his Edge Fund was not the only one to accumulate short positions on US Treasuries Now however in conjunction with the achievement of yields for 10-year bonds close to 5% which you think has not happened since 2007, Hackman seems to have abandoned his bearish view we know this thanks to a post published on X ex Twitter where he states that he has liquidated his bet against US government bonds also due to the increased risks and geopolitical tensions of the last few weeks Then take a close look at this graph guys it shows the yield of the US ten-year and you see how it has grown so much in the last period we have practically returned to the values of 2008 given the rebound of the last few days there are several analysts who dare to say that ten-year bonds could even reach 6% if we consider that the average return of the stock market in the last decades has been 7% we understand well how there could actually be a very big problem this because the risk of return increases significantly and therefore in the face of an almost certain return of 6% the stock market should do much, much better to attract investors to be honest however the current skepticism of Bakman is a bit at odds with the data regarding the economy and the US job market whether it is one of his usual reckless moves that have made him so famous guys we will find out in the next few months but in the meantime we are happy to read your comments now let's move on to the hot topic of the day, namely the quarterly results of Google Microsoft and Visa Google released the data at the close of the markets on Tuesday 24 October and in the after hours the stock lost over 5% but we understand well what has happened It was certainly not the profits or the turnover that led to this decline, guys, since revenues grew by 11% to 76.6 billion dollars, but what was really surprising was the profit, which increased by 42% with an absolute value of 19.7 billion, exceeding the market's expectations by a lot, but then why is the stock falling?
Well, guys, it 's not the first time we've seen a situation like this: companies that beat expectations and that fall by significant percentages. Let's always remember that the drivers that push the stocks up or down are not only past results but above all the company's future expectations for the following quarters.
If you think about it, guys, it also makes sense that the prices of the stocks are driven by supply and demand. Those who open the quarterly report are more interested in knowing if they will be able to earn something from buying the stock and not so much in knowing what the past results were, but getting back to us, what were the negative drivers in this case, just one word, guys.
Cloud division revenues actually stood at 88.41 billion, less than the 8.64 expected by analysts. Let's always remember that the cloud is a fundamental strategic area for Google, especially from a competitive perspective. Companies like Amazon or Microsoft are making giant steps in that direction and Google cannot afford to be left behind.
Generative artificial intelligence is pushing an ever-increasing number of companies towards the cloud to manage their heavy workloads but above all their data. However, we are talking about a division that grew by 22% compared to the same period last year but the market simply expected a little more.
Let's now move on to the second company that reported profits. I'm talking about Microsoft. Here things get interesting guys, the stock gained over 6% in after hours and here are the main figures: turnover of 56.5 billion dollars against the 54.4 expected net profit up by 22.3 billion dollars, a monstrous figure guys.
It means that in just one month they manage to put in their pockets about 7 and a half billion dollars to invest in other projects and finally an EPS of 2.99 against the 2.65 expected let's focus for a second on just one of these figures: 22.3 billion dollars. It's a truly enormous figure but to make you understand how enormous it is, consider that the acquisition of Activision Blizzard cost the company 68.7 billion what does this mean it means that 13 of the price of a video game giant like Activision was covered in just one quarter We need to see how this acquisition will impact the company and for this it will take some time already from January but we could see the impact of the acquisition of Activision In fact Microsoft expects a growth of 45% As regards revenues deriving from the sale of games while as regards services it is expected to increase by 55% truly impressive numbers for companies We will see if it will be able to continue on this positive trend finally guys the latest quarterly report today Visa is the leading company in the payment circuit sector we start from the turnover 8.6 billion against the expected 88.57 therefore slightly above expectations EPS of 2.33 against the expected 2.25 what always amazes me about this company are the margins over 50% of what they earn they manage converting it into profit very few companies in the world have these margins But what is really driving this growth in profits may seem strange but the answer is precisely the pandemic Or rather the post-pandemic after all guys if you think about it people have been at home for a very long time and now they have started traveling again and they are doing it guess a little more than before despite the growth in interest rates and the economic forecasts for next year which are certainly not Rose consumer spending has remained fairly stable and therefore also payments with electronic circuits total payment volumes increased by 99% in the quarter while cross-border volumes excluding transactions within Europe indicator of travel demand increased by 18 % in this sector there are not many players and last week also American Express published the results and in this case too they were positive now we just have to wait for MasterCard which will release the data this week going to close the quarterly results of the sector we conclude this video with a topic that we rarely cover on the channel simply because we don't follow it much but in recent days there has been news that deserves a deeper look and we are clearly talking about Bitcoin, the number one cryptocurrency in the world, has touched $35,000, a value it has not seen practically since the spring of 2022, recording an 11% increase in a single session.
The reasons behind this rise may be different, but there is one that stands out and we are talking about the possible approval of the first ETFs on Bitcoin by Blackrock and Fidel. In the past few months we have already heard this story even if in the end the SEC has always been against it because it fears the risk of fraud and market manipulation.
In recent days, however, there have been some news, some fake news and others are technical rumors that seem to make the approval of the ETF proposed by Blackrock more likely. It did not take long before these news started a strong rise in the space of a few hours, a rise that also brought back many altcoins.
The idea behind this rise is that if the ETF were actually approved, and therefore a safer and more controlled instrument than cryptocurrencies, it could facilitate the purchase and the adoption of these new currencies by the mass market guys we have reached the end of this video what do you think of Hackman's moves the quarterly results were above or below your expectations let us know with a nice comment below and we'll see you for the next video always on the engineers in the stock market channel Hi guys
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