저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 장기적으로 기업 이익에 따라 움직이며 단기 가격 예측은 불가능하니 좋은 기업을 장기 보유하라는 메시지. S&P500 밸류에이션: 주가수익비율(PE)은 역사적으로 대략 10~20 범위에 머물렀고, 20 이상은 드물었으며 대체로 인플레이션이 거의 0일 때였다. 현재 인플레이션이 낮아 PE 20 부근은 비교적 괜찮은 수준이라고 봄. 시장이 너무 오르면 미래 이익을 앞당겨 할인한 셈이라 과열은 좋지 않다고 주장. 일본 사례: 닛케이가 5천에서 1만5천까지는 적정했으나 4만까지 오르면서 부동산·과소비 거품이 생기고 이후 5~6년간 장기 불황을 겪었다고 설명. 아시아 외환위기: 태국·필리핀 등 아시아 경제의 어려움은 미국 기업 이익에 큰 영향이 없다고 봄. 멕시코 위기가 미국에 더 중요했다는 취지. 아시아 경제 게임이 끝났냐는 질문에는 아니라고 답함. 개별 종목 접근: 일반 투자자는 자신이 잘 아는 산업·지역 기업(소매, 외식 등)에서 기회를 찾아야 하며, 생명공학처럼 모르는 분야는 피하라고 조언. 현금·부채 같은 재무 구조를 확인하고, 주가가 크게 떨어진 펀더멘털 우량 기업을 매수 기회로 볼 수 있다고 함. 위험 대비 보상 비율을 따져야 한다고 강조. 투자 전략: 뮤추얼펀드 중심 투자에 개별주를 보완하는 방식 제안. 단기 시장 방향은 동전 던지기와 같아 예측 불가, 장기적으로 기업 이익은 성장하므로 장기 보유가 핵심이라고 주장. 과거 Microsoft·Federal Express 같은 신생 기업이 새로 등장해 성장한다는 점도 강조. 출연자 전망: 특정 시장 단기 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
it's been over there only a few times ever over 20 and that's when usually inflation is about zero in the early 60s when inflation was about zero we get a little bit over 20. now we have a very low inflation rate so if you usually have subtracted inflation from 20 you've had the fee of the market that's not pretty good ratio when inflation was 12 you remember in the early 80s we had eight or nine PA Market well we had a huge run I mean the market was 4 000 just you know two and a half years ago yeah and it ran up to 8 300 in August and you know like any big rally sometimes it backs off I mean it's healthy in fact I mean I'd rather gone down a thousand points than gone to 12 000 if you look at Japan Japan went from five thousand to fifteen thousand on their Dow it was fairly priced at fifteen thousand on earnings and everything else then it went to forty thousand and that caused seven years of inflated real estate people overspending and basically they've been a recession for five or six years because their Market went up too high I mean the market was up too high I mean if the market goes too high you're discounting earnings seven eight ten years out everything is overpriced yeah and that doesn't help anything the market since World War II it sold between 10 times earnings and 20 countries if you look at the Dow Jones of the sap Advantage you add up all the companies and take the earnings you say there's a relationship and it follows McDonald's earnings have been terrific the last 30 years and the stocks country is a direct relationship so the earnings of the S P 500 have been between this range of 10 and 20.
we were just about to go over the 20 which is the high end of the PE range there wasn't a lot of PE of 20 is too is it the top of how high it should ever be right it's been over there only a few times ever over 20 and that's when usually inflation is about zero in the early 60s when inflation was about zero we're a little bit over 20.
now we have a very low inflation rate so if you usually have subtracted inflation from 20 you've had the P of the market that's been a pretty good ratio when inflation was 12 you remember in the early 80s we had eight or nine market so Dr Lynch says all of this has been good for us well I'm telling you would not have been helpful it's like a purgative I never thought I'd ever wish for the market to do not go up dramatically but let's just let's already the Mark went to 16 000 tomorrow basically there is earnings behind companies yeah I would say fairly priced made for the larger companies they're now okay there might be some small companies we've had 3 thousand companies come public the last four years that's true a business day some of those companies have gone down dramatically and that sort of a research Zone that average people in the stock shop that we could find some people know a lot about this ten thousand public companies a lot of them are very track have no one's Fallen but you have to look at 20 to find one it's just you know go to the mall and find the stock and you have to say oh my God this sounds like it's good and then you have to do some steps you have to do an organized method people are careful when they buy a toaster careful they're careful they buy a seat they do they do some research but they don't do it with stock it's called the broker they see somebody in London they said one modest point I mean every time you get you have to get a memory it's like it's very cold in the winter in some parts of the country you get a memory that Winter's coming something did really happen in Southeast Asia I mean what happened in this market well I think so that was the reminder saying by the word you know profits can go down I mean there's a downside but why was that the cause I mean did what's happening in Southeast Asia affect the earnings potential of all these companies you're talking about it because they can't sell their products they're small way no because those economy's been growing double digit and all of a sudden now they're gonna because of Bank problems because they're over financed they're under level I mean they're going to have they're going to have to run their belts those part and then people said whoa maybe that'll become it'll happen China's now the fourth largest economy in the world maybe China can go into session these sort of woke people it's like a wake-up call saying whoa maybe there's a chance or anything about I mean this is not a big deal for the United States when Mexico went down much more important but it sort of said people how is it much more important to Mexico much more from the United States than Thailand is or the Philippines I mean their economy is very important to us they're a big consumer very important they're a neighbor a lot of people they're that's very important and that went down that effect latiment was more important so the recession 99 but it sort of reminded people they'd say wait a second there is a downside we have we've had nine recessions since World War II we'll have other ones one thing you're trying to do of all these public companies out there here's a company I really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well the competitors are doing poorly I think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60 all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find times you liked anyway right now you like them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do not not a slightly one lower price The Fairly price then there's fairly place at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know a five for four sale if you had been managing the Magellan fund this morning you would have been fine like crazy I would have been researching my crazy now I've been saying which companies are the same story is there anything really happening this is a non-event for them they're still doing well even if they have a recession there's nothing doing them and that's the kind of Kinds I'm trying to buy but let's say if a company just think of it this is being you say to yourself I think this one's going to learn something in the future if it's already discounted if it's selling at a huge multiple they say it's already it has to work and then it's only going to say even so you have to say yourself if I'm right how much am I going to make if I'm wrong how much I'm going to lose that's a risk reward ratio the stock shop we talk about if I'm right I hope I'm going to double trip my money if I'm wrong they'll lose 30 40 that's a favor ratio you say if I'm right it's not gonna work it's already become terrific that's if discounting terrific things are already in the stock that you know something about you have to have an inch let's say it's the main industry goes from crummy to semi-crummy to fairly good the stocks are going north you're going to make money that's the industry you know what if you know the publishing industry you some people have you have an edge you work I mean what if you last 30 years you work in the restaurant years you would have seen Taco Bell you would have seen some barrels you would have seen Pizza Hut you would have seen Chili's you've seen this company's doing very well you should have bought those instead of trying to buy biotechnology stuff you know nothing about I mean I know nothing about local area networking a lot of people are buying this Cisco they're buying the equipment saying we're going to root together all these peripherals and put together the servers but but it's not a bad buy because they own a huge percentage of their Market you know what that was they're saying only a few people had them I said my God if it works for us other people try it then colleges will try high schools will try it and we'll go overseas they know they were early in the ball game and they should have been buying that company instead of out buying something they don't know anything about some oil drilling company I feel they have this tendency to always buy something they don't all you need is okay Charlie all you need is a few there's five thousand companies out there which one should I buy the average person ought to be able to follow four or five companies that would be electron they understand the companies and this forces you what do the cash look like and if you don't understand what cash is if you don't understand what debt is I always said let's say you're looking companies that are doing poorly they're not doing very well why don't you buy the one that has three million dollars in cash instead of the one that's almost abandoned I mean a lot of companies are selling two or three dollars a share they might be losing 10 million dollars but people don't do it well it is because they don't know how to do the research I think she can look up the balance she said listen they got three million dollars of cash they're losing 10 million a quarter they'll be okay this other company's got no no cash 700 million dollars in debt they're about to blow tabs but you're telling every small investor in America anyway they ought to invest in to be for fun aren't you I'm telling you can do both you ought to you could be investing mutual funds and occasionally you should be able to find a stock that's gonna get a difference in your life if it's an industry you know something about the industry or Local Company there's a lot of people that suck they sell the Kindle motor Inns in Texas they said thank God I mean a lot of people have seen local companies friendly these are the companies come along locally the field Middle St Jude Medical made a lot of money for people that's what it was right you stayed overnight and I also got advice from somebody that was a competitor in this it was a holiday saying this guy but they're killing us so you get a lot of information don't throw it away and it used to be used to be able to retire and you get half your last year's salary you'd have a pension you could rely on that now you have to do it for yourself some people are presented their but they're let go for their early retirement they're given 500 000 and they say this is it this is your retirement lady you're going to take care of it now and somebody have lost all that money on options in the last three months so what you're saying to people today about the future of the market over the near term is what what's your feeling we can have to buy a business we can take a coin out and flip it I have no idea what the next thousand points gonna do the next 6 000 points gonna be up the next 14 000 points can be up the next 20 000 points again but you don't know what the next thousands nobody does and it's futile to try and guess it corporate profits will be a lot higher 10 years from now it'll be a lot higher 20 years from now that's what you get rely on Microsoft didn't exist 20 years ago Staples didn't exists 20 years Federal Express didn't exists 20 years ago newcomers will come along that's what makes Amgen has two one billion dollar drugs they didn't exist new companies that come on that's what makes this country work keep your eyes open okay is the game over in Asia no do I know that you came with you know some of these companies have a 56 savings rate they have high literacy rate came time over well you know they're gonna they're gonna have to have they lost something well they're going to have to some of the lending to get carried away I mean they're going to have to you know step back figure it out and go ahead it's certainly not over an Asia no way
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