저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 2023년 7월 기준 미국 경기침체 속에서 연준이 결국 인플레이션 싸움을 포기하고 경기부양·양적완화로 선회해 인플레이션이 더 악화될 것이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션 전망: 연준이 침체 대응을 위해 금리를 낮추고 QE5를 시작하면 인플레이션이 목표 2%의 두세 배 이상으로 치솟을 것이라고 본다. 실제 물가 상승률은 정부 CPI 발표치의 두 배 수준이라고 주장한다. 연준 정책 전망: 볼커 시절과 달리 파월 연준은 인플레이션과의 싸움에서 패배한 뒤 선회할 것이며, 대차대조표 축소는 과거보다 덜 이뤄질 것으로 본다. 시장 반응: 과거에는 저금리·완화가 '인플레이션이 목표치 미달'이라는 명분으로 수용됐지만, 물가가 목표의 세 배 이상일 때는 시장이 이를 받아들이지 않을 것이라고 본다. 노동시장 평가: 실업률 3.5%는 착시이며, 7월 순증 52.8만 개 중 상당수가 비정규직이고 비자발적 시간제 근로자가 30만 명 증가했다고 지적한다. 고용 질 악화: 두 개 이상 직장을 가진 사람이 역대 최고치라며, 임금 상승이 생계비 상승을 따라가지 못해 근로자들이 임금 삭감을 받아들이고 있다고 주장한다. 경제 정의 논쟁: 연착륙은 경기침체를 피한다는 뜻이므로 모순이며, 현재는 이미 경기침체 또는 경착륙 상황이라고 본다. 노동참가율: 최근 노동참가율 62.1%는 연중 최저치이며, 지난 4개월간 취업자 수는 오히려 감소했다고 주장한다. 고용 증가는 기존 취업자의 추가 취업으로 설명된다고 본다. 금융위기 경고: 연준이 인플레이션보다 경기침체와 금융시장 지지를 택하고 정부부채를 monetize할 것이며, 이미 발생했거나 임박한 금융위기가 있다고 경고한다. 자산 관련: 특정 종목·지수 언급은 없으며, 금융시장 버블이 터져야 한다는 취지의 발언만 있다.
다듬은 글
in order to stimulate the economy out of this recession is going to ignite a powder keg we already have an inflation problem and Powell's going to pour all this gasoline on it and so we're going to see inflation moving up to a much higher level even though it's already very high you think that you think that inflation is not done Rising it's going to go above 9.1 percent Peter I just want to point out the fact that uh in no prior recession over the last 70 years has inflation risen during a recession this time's going to be yes well as they keep telling us this is a very unique recession in fact most people don't even want to admit that we have one okay but you know look at the recessions of the 1970s you had Rising prices there you know during stagflation and that's what my forecast is remember last year I was predicting the U.S economy would be in recession in the first half of 2022 and very few people had that right but I also predicted that inflation wasn't in transitory that it would get stronger as the economy got weaker and that is exactly what happened now the reason that I believe that inflation is going to kick into a higher gear as this recession that we are in gets worse is because I believe Powell is going to Pivot ultimately and he is going to give up his fight against inflation in order to fight a different Foe and that is going to be a recession and Rising unemployment and potentially a financial crisis either one that has already happened or one that is rapidly approaching and so I think Powell is going to choose what he believes to be the lesser of the two evils and I think he's going to pick fighting recession and propping up financial markets and monetizing government debt so the treasury doesn't have to default I think the FED is going to pick that over inflation and so unlike the pivot that we got with Vogue back in 1982 where volcker pivoted after a victory in his fight against inflation Powell is going to Pivot despite defeat inflation is going to win and so when we go back to zero percent interest rates or whatever we do and when we go to qe5 which is going to be launched I don't think the FED is going to shrink its balance sheet very much it's going to shrink it less than it did last time it tried to do it which is an impossible task given the bubble that it's it's inflated I think when the FED goes back to stimulus and creating inflation when inflation is maybe double or triple or quadruple that two percent Target the markets are going to react very differently than how they reacted in the past because in the past the Fed was able to justify all this cheap money because they said we don't have enough inflation we're still below Target well when they go back to the stimulus when inflation is triple or more their target the markets aren't going to buy buy it and so I think all the inflation that they are going to have to uh create in order to stimulate the economy out of this recession is going to ignite a powder keg we already have an inflation problem and Powell's going to pour all this gasoline on it and so we're going to see inflation moving up to a much higher level even though it's already very high in fact it's probably double what the government claims in the CPI if you want to know what's actually happening to prices you've got to double what the government tells you and that's more accurate okay let's touch this pivot here remember the FED has two mandates fighting inflation and maximum maximizing the uh employment uh side now unemployment has actually Fallen yet again to 3.5 you've actually tweeted about this you said there was a net loss of full-time jobs in July actually all of the net 528 000 jobs added were part-time jobs most of them low paying service sector jobs now I I mentioned I read some of your juicy tweets so I actually looked into this myself in the BLS uh Peter we've recent jobs report came out the number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons increased by three hundred and three thousand to 3.9 million so of the 528 000 jobs added 300 000 were part-time jobs now the feds looking at the overall unemployment number and they're probably thinking okay we don't have to fight unemployment right now because it's at an all-time low right is that an accurate statement to make is that an accurate reading of the number even if some of those other jobs were full-time jobs and it's hard to say but even if they were they probably went to people who already had another full-time job because one thing that we know for uh this month or last month is that it's a new record the number of people working two full-time jobs is now at a all-time record high and why are people having to hold down two full-time jobs because one isn't enough that is the problem this labor market is so weak workers are being forced to accept huge pay cuts which is what they're doing they're getting small increases in their wages but it's being more than offset by enormous increase in the cost of goods the cost of living is going up much more than their meager pay raises and so what a lot of Americans are now forced to do is take another job and many people that have uh one part-time job now have two or three because they can't pay the bills uh with with a single job or even two jobs so this doesn't happen in a strong labor market in a strong labor market workers get real wages raises they're able to get their boss to increase their pay by more than the increase in the cost of living but in a weak labor market workers are forced to work for lower wages and that is in fact what is actually happening and meanwhile labor force participation last month failed is 62.1 that is the low for the year and in fact over the last four months even though we've created all these jobs the number of people in the workforce has gone down and so that means that all the jobs that were created over the last four months were people who already had a job getting another job you don't think it's because people found a new purpose after the pandemic they just want to work more no well the the data isn't lying we have fewer people working than we had four months ago you know Biden claimed that we have a record number of people in the workforce he was mistaken he's wrong we had more people working uh four months ago uh than we have working now okay well uh by the way yeah the record high for the number of people working is before the pandemic so even though we've recovered the jobs that we lost prior to the pandemic it's only because the same people have multiple jobs we haven't recovered the workers we still have a lot of workers that were working prior to the pandemic that haven't rejoined the labor force okay um I want to come back to the financial crisis that you mentioned earlier in the interview but first another juicy tweet you've made you said that there's no trade-off between inflation and economic growth real economic growth increases Supply holding prices down the problem is that our economy hasn't had real growth thanks to the FED it experienced an artificial bubble to fight inflation that bubble must be popped um just going back to the first part of your Tweet Peter there's no trade-off between inflation and economic growth the fed's talking about a soft Landing which is a trade-off between economic growth and inflation that's not possible well first of all we can't have a soft Landing because the soft Landing means we avoid recession so by that definition we've already crashed or it's a hard Landing uh but there's no way sure if it's a recession the definition has to be muddled well I don't care how the politicians want to redefine it it is what it is and so you know I I'm I'm not going to change the meaning of a word uh just to deny that we're not in something that that we're in uh that somehow believe that inflation is caused by economic growth they also think it's caused by too many people working they think there's a trade-off between unemployment and inflation
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