저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스의 투자 철학 소개. 투자 성과가 실력인지 운인지 물으며, 1차적 사고(좋은 회사=매수)와 2차적 사고(이미 반영됐는지, 가격 과열 여부 고려)의 차이를 강조. 위험은 변동성이 아니라 영구적 자본 손실 가능성이며, 모두가 안전하다고 느낄 때 가장 위험하다고 설명. 손실 복구의 비대칭성(-50% 손실은 +100% 필요)과 방어적 투자, 자기 감정 통제의 중요성을 제시.
다듬은 글
If I have made a profit from my investments over the past year, is that due to my own skill? Or is it luck? Honestly, I don't think there are many people who can answer this question accurately . However, one investor who has managed 200 trillion won over 30 years says that this is precisely the question every investor must ask themselves .
Today, I would like to introduce that very person's book. This is the investment philosophy of Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital, a global asset management firm based in the United States . If you watch today's video to the end, you will learn the criteria for distinguishing between money earned through skill and money earned by luck, as well as the two common mindsets shared by investors who survive market crises .
This book compiles the 20 most important topics from the memos Howard Marks sent to clients over more than 30 years . These memos are so profound that Warren Buffett himself stated that they are the first messages he opens when they arrive in his inbox . It is also famous as almost the only investment book he recommended .
However, this book has an interesting structure. The title of Chapter 1 is "Think Deeply." In other words, it is secondary thinking. And among the subsequent chapters, a significant portion—Chapters 5, 6, and 7— discuss risk in succession. In other words, Marx's core message in this book can be summarized in two main lines.
Think differently. And do not lose, which is the ultimate goal of risk management. Today, I’m going to talk about these two things . First, the first message is secondary thinking. Max says this in the book. Primary thinking is simple and superficial. If it's a good company, buy; if it's a bad company, sell.
On the other hand, secondary thinking is deep and complex. Even while looking at the same company, you go one step further. Isn't it already reflected in the price since others think it's good too ? What difference does this kind of thinking make? Anyone can think holistically . For example, Samsung Electronics is a good company.
You all know, right? If you search, everything comes up. So that information is already reflected in the price. Secondary thinking goes one step further. I know everything is good, but then what about the price? Could it be that people bought too much ? Then, what are the scenarios in which that agreement breaks down ?
So, the answer for Wax is this. A successful investment does not simply mean being right . You have to think differently from others . If you are only different but wrong, you will fail. If you think you are only right and everyone else is right too, it will already be reflected in the price, so you won't make a profit.
Above-average returns are achieved only when things are different and rise simultaneously. The area where this secondary thinking shines the brightest is precisely risk. There is a common belief that Max wanted to break first . If you majored in economics in school or studied economics diligently, you have probably heard of it .
Standard deviation, beta, and Sharpe are quite difficult names, but they all ultimately boil down to one thing. They view the daily fluctuation of prices—that shaking, or volatility—as risk. However, Howard Marks says that risk is not volatility. Then what is the real risk that Max is talking about?
It is the possibility that the money I invested could just disappear forever. I'm talking about money that doesn't drop for a moment and then recover, but rather money that, once gone, never returns. Let me give you an example . Try to recall the time when the real estate market was at its peak . If you don't buy it now, you'll never be able to buy it in your lifetime.
This kind of atmosphere. We've all experienced it at least once. In that atmosphere, someone stretched their budget to buy a popular new apartment in the metropolitan area for 800 million won. Unlike stocks, real estate isn't an asset where market fluctuations are visible every day, and the sense of security from owning my own home brings a sense of peace.
It was an attractive choice by any standard. On the other hand, another person invested the same amount of money in global blue-chip stocks at the same time. It makes me really uncomfortable seeing prices fluctuate every day and sometimes even hit -2%. But what will it be like to look back a few years from now ?
As the market cools down, few people are willing to buy that apartment even at the mid-600 million won level . In effect, the money is tied up . As for global blue-chip stocks. As the market changes and the business grows in the meantime, it has eventually gone up. By the textbook definition, these global blue-chip stocks that fluctuate every day are much riskier assets.
But who is the person who really hasn't been able to get over 100 million won back ? I am the person who bought the apartment. It was just that the price wasn't visible every day; it was quietly being tied up and quietly decreasing . This is Marx's teaching. Do not be swayed by the ripples in front of your eyes.
Avoid money that could disappear forever. Now, let's talk about the point where these secondary accidents and risk intersect . This is an important part of today's discussion. If we look at it from a primary perspective. It looks dangerous when asset prices fall and the atmosphere is bad . However, if you go one step further into secondary thinking...
The exact opposite conclusion comes out. According to Makse, risk is greatest when everyone feels safe. Think about it. All of these assets are safe. What happens if you believe this ? The price will probably go up. Because everyone buys it. If the price becomes too high compared to its value, future returns will be low, and even a slight shock will lead to significant losses .
On the contrary, ah, that is dangerous right now. Assets that you think you shouldn't buy have already hit rock bottom . Assets that are undervalued relative to their worth will likely have high future returns and little room for further decline. So, the conclusion of the Marx is this. The time when you feel psychologically safe is the time when you are most financially at risk .
The time that looks psychologically dangerous is the safest time financially. This is exactly how secondary thinking is applied to risk . Everyone says that primary accidents are safe. So, this is safe. Everyone believes that secondary accidents are safe. I've already bought all of this at a high price.
This means the risk of research loss is the greatest. It is looking at the same information and coming to the exact opposite conclusion. Then, how should we invest? Max also provides an answer to this. A great investor is not someone who makes huge profits, but someone who consistently makes moderate profits while avoiding huge losses.
Let's take a look at this mathematically. If the stock price drops by 50%. How much does it need to go up to break even? It must go up by 100%. It's not 50%. Uh, why is that? For those of you who, like me, are weak at calculation math, I will explain it in a little more detail. Uh, let's assume we invested 100 million won.
One day, the market was volatile and this 100 million dropped by 50%. Since half of it is gone, I have 50 million won in my hand right now. It has n't been difficult so far. Now, to recover the initial investment of 100 million won, you need another 50 million won. But right now, I only have 50 million won in my bank account .
To earn an additional 50 million won with 50 million won, you would need to earn 100% more than the money you currently have . That way, 50 million won + 50 million won becomes 100 million won. The key point is that the reference point changes. So, the loss is calculated based on the original amount of 100 million won, but the recovery is calculated as a percentage based on the remaining amount of 50 million won .
Since the reference point has decreased, you have to fill in the same amount, so the required percentage becomes much larger. That is why the deeper you fall, the more exponentially difficult it becomes to recover. But actually, the bigger problem is time. While recovering from this huge loss, investors will miss out on other good opportunities .
The magic of compound interest works in reverse. So, what Marx emphasizes is asymmetry. If you follow the market by only 80% when it goes up, or by only 50% when it goes down, you will eventually beat the market. This is the core of what he calls defensive investing. So, it means that defense comes first, not offense .
And what makes this defense possible is, going back to the beginning, secondary thinking. I would appreciate it if you could leave a comment. In today's video, we focused on secondary accidents and risks . Besides these, there are many other things the author emphasizes in the book . I’ll tell you about just two more of them.
First of all, the biggest enemy in investing is yourself. The truth is, controlling your own emotions is harder than market analysis . Greed, fear, pride, envy, patience, and lack are the five real causes of almost all investment failures . Panic selling when the market falls , and getting swept up in stories of others making money and buying along, will all become enemies within yourself .
Looking back on his 30-year career in operations, Max says this. The biggest loss was not caused by the market, but by my emotions. In the latter part of the world, there is also a subheading titled "Knowing the Unknown ." This is exactly the insight Marx offers . The point is that people who fail at investing are not strangers.
I am someone who doesn't know that I don't know. One of the things Marx emphasizes to the very end is that admitting you don't know becomes the most powerful weapon in the market. Combining these two points, it can ultimately be summarized in a single line. I govern myself before the market. Take the humility of ignorance before the certainty of knowing.
This is the conclusion Max reached at the end of his 30-year investment career. What I covered in today's video is actually just about five key points out of the 20 chapters in the book. The remaining chapters are also full of really good insights on cycles, rest, clock theory, contrarian thinking, the role of luck, patience, and so on .
I highly recommend that you experience it firsthand through the book . If you found this video helpful, please subscribe and like. I would appreciate it if you could leave a comment letting me know whether your most recent investment decision was a primary or secondary one, and whether it was a good decision or resulted in a good outcome. Don Sera Book Review. I will be back with another good book. thank you
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