저자: ShihabPersonalFinance진행자 · 외국인
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버핏의 100만 달러 내기 사례를 들어 S&P500 인덱스 장기투자의 한계를 설명한다. 결론: 인덱스 장기투자는 안전하고 수동적이지만 최선의 수익은 아니며, 개별주를 사고파는 전략이 더 낫다는 입장. 인덱스 적립 사례: 1993~2018년 25년간 매월 동일 금액 투자 시 누적 수익률 116%(연평균 약 4.64%)로 인플레이션을 겨우 상회한다고 평가. 수익이 낮은 이유: 25년 사이 두 차례 폭락이 있었고, 폭락 시 수년간 쌓은 수익이 한두 해에 사라지며 원금 회복에 추가 3년 정도가 걸린다고 설명. 버핏 내기 사례: 10년간 인덱스 투자 연평균 약 7%, 평균 이상일 수 있으나 최고 수익은 아니라고 평가. 해당 기간에 큰 폭락이 없었던 점이 유리하게 작용했다고 봄. 복리 논리: 장기 보유는 수익 재투자(복리) 효과를 놓친다는 주장. 연 7% 복리 25년은 단리 7%보다 훨씬 크다고 강조. 개별주 전략: 우량주(블루칩)를 골라 사고파는 방식을 선호하며, 리먼 브라더스 외에 대형 기업이 사라진 사례는 드물다고 언급. 향후 폭락이 2008년만큼 크지 않을 것으로 전망. 타이밍 및 유동성: 투자 시점과 자금 회수 시점에 따라 결과가 크게 달라진다고 봄. 현재 시점은 조정 중이거나 향후 5년 내 폭락 가능성이 있어 지금 인덱스 투자가 최선이 아닐 수 있다고 언급. 매도를 통해 유동성을 확보하면 하락장에서 할인가 매수 기회를 잡을 수 있다고 주장. 리스크: 인덱스는 전체 시장 노출이 곧 리스크이며, 시장 전체가 하락하면 장기 보유라도 원금 회복에 긴 시간이 필요하다는 점을 지적.
다듬은 글
so I came across this great article that talks about how Warren Buffett made a $1,000,000 bet against this hedge fund manager to see who would get the highest returns in a period of ten years where Warren Buffett would only be investing in an index fund Warren Buffett ended up winning the bet simply by investing in an index fund or an ETF that matches the S&P 500 that tracks the movement of the S&P 500 so I wanted to talk about whether this is a good idea if it's a good strategy does it really work should you just stop trying to buy individual stocks and just invest in index funds like Warren Buffett says Warren Buffett being the greatest investor of all time I mean this is someone if you if you are going to follow someone blindly blindly and investing it would be Warren Buffett so he's trying to say that the average investor or the average individual will get better or the best way for an average individual to invest their money is to simply buy ETFs that track the index because over time over time no one beats the market and by investing and by investing in an index fund or an ETF that matches the index you're basically getting the returns of the stock market so in my opinion in my opinion if if you're looking for a passive investment this is definitely a great way to invest passively really have nothing to worry about you don't care about the ups and downs you just keep buying an index fund pretty much safest because it represents the top 500 stocks in the stock market so in terms of risk it's pretty risk-free you're just exposed to the general stock market and over time you'll be making an average return per year here's why I wouldn't personally do it and why I don't think it generates the best returns so we if we take a 25 year per year or 25 year span someone wants to invest for the next 25 years and if you follow the strategy of just investing in the index fund so let's say every year or even every month you buy the index fund regardless of the price every year or every month you buy an index fund with the same dollar amount so let's say let's just say $5,000 so every month or every year you buy the index fund with $5,000 for 25 years so if you've been if you've been doing this since 1993 25 years would be 2018 your your return for that 25 year period is 116 percent so that's an average of four point sixty four percent per year so that's not that great four point sixty four percent it's bait it's barely beating inflation know the reason why this twenty five years this this twenty five year period does not generate the best return is because during that twenty five year period we went through two crashes so basically when it basically when a crash occurs it basically wipes out all the gains all the profits you made in the past years so all the years where you've been accumulating profits just got wiped out with a crash and in a few years after the crash the market rebounds and then you're back at the same at the same profit level so what it took what took you 15 years to gain gets wiped out in in one or two years and then you'll have to wait like an extra three years just to be at the same level that you were 15 just to be the same profit level you were at during a 15 year period so that's one of the reasons I don't like this strategy is because it's a long-term strategy and because you're because you're accumulating gains a year after year and then long periods go by and then all of a sudden in one year all your all the gains that you've accumulated in 15 years just disappear so you have to start all over and depending on 25 year period it might not be beneficial the idea is but the idea behind the strategy is in the long run it averages out and ends up being more positive than or more profitable than if you were trading buying and selling every year this was good back in the 1960s 70s 80s and 90s we had a crazy growth but this kind of growth is not gonna happen again so right now our growth you cannot compare the growth right now to the growth that occurred back in the nineteen nineteen sixties or that started in the 1960s where for example Procter & Gamble was at $1 now it's at 85 you're not gonna see Procter and Gamble trading 85 multiple right now in 25 or 30 years it's always going to be in the same level my quota 150-200 max so that 85 multiple those crazy multiples that occurred from the 1960s to 2000 is not going to happen again so that's why this long-term investing buying and holding forever or if we're just following the index fund it's okay for an average return but it's definitely not the best return and proof of that is Berkshire Hathaway does not invest in the index fund Berkshire Hathaway buys and sells individual stocks if we look at the ten-year period where the bet occurred if you had bought the index one every year or every month you would have made an average return of about 7% per year so it's its average probably even above average but I mean it's not the best return you can make on a stock market it's great for a passive investment the passive return but luckily in those 10 years the no market crash occurred so basically this bad happened right after the crash so of course it's all uphill from there if there was a market crash in those 10 years the returns could have been much lower if not in existent he could have been starting from scratch another reason I don't like this strategy is when you buy and hold forever the return that you're making is an average yearly return let's say of 5% in the example of the 25 years in the example of the 25 years I gave you you would have made an average return of 5% per year but you you miss out on compounding interest this way because you're not buying and selling if you buy it if you buy the index fund and it goes up in value 5% for say for example you're not taking that 5% and reinvesting it because you're not selling that value remains in the stock and if it drops well it drops if it goes up it's that initial investment that you put in that went up it does not include that 5% gain for that 5% gain to be included you need to sell and buy something else and make another 5% so that's how you get compound interest is by making interest on gains by making gains on gains by making gains on gains when you're not selling you're not making gains so you lose the compounding effect when you when you buy and hold long term so it's actually best to buy and sell your stocks throughout the year and make a 7% return per year 7 per year compounded for 25 years will be much greater than just 7% simple interest year after year so that's why I don't not not a great fan of that strategy of just buying the index one because you miss out on compound interest so even if you're okay with 7% per year at least get 7% compound interest that would be good 7% compound interest for 25 years would give you 17 percent average return per year versus just 7% simple interest so that's why in my opinion I think it's best to buy individual stocks buy and sell them so you can make a consistent positive return every year and the effect of compound interest your portfolio will grow much faster this way and it's really not that complicated if you if you stick with blue chip stocks if you stick with companies that don't disappear if you look at the last market crash only one big name company disappeared which was Lehman Brothers and they they could have been saved but for some political reason they were not and if we do get a crash I don't think it's gonna be as big as 2008 so I don't think we're gonna I don't think it's gonna be as detrimental as so the chances are much lower that big-name company that a big-name company will go bankrupt or disappear okay so this was my opinion on the by buying and holding the index fund long term strategy it's safe and passive for individuals that don't don't want to follow their investment but even for the average investor they could be doing much better by buying and selling individual stocks if they follow a certain strategy and focus on compounding their gains in compound interest and use use the advantage of time versus just buying and holding the index fund forever but I guess the bet was done to prove a point the most most people don't beat the market and sometimes it's it's best to just follow the market but I've explained in this video why I think it's best to buy and sell individual stocks and sometimes investing in and the index fund isn't not that beneficial because you might it's all about timing right so depending on depending on time that you need to withdraw your money you could have just been through a crash a year or two years ago so basically you wiped out all the gains for the past ten or fifteen years so timing it really depends on timing when when do you want to invest how long do you want to invest for and which period you're investing in also if obviously if you just came out of a crash then investing in an index fund is great because most likely that the following years after a crash will be positive returns will be high-growth but right now if you invest right now in an index fund most likely in the next five years is going to be a crash or the strong correction or even right now we're probably going through a correction right now so investing in an index fund right now might not generate the best returns so that's what timing is important in that 25 years the 25 year period from 1993 to 2018 is not the same as 25 years before 1993 you're not gonna you're not gonna experience the same growth so that's also something to consider so a reason why I also like buying and selling individual stocks instead of just investing in an index fund long term is when you buy and sell or when you sell your money becomes available to you so there's more liquidity so if anything happens if if there's a crash well because of it because your money is available then you could take advantage of of a new discounted price so it increases your chances of having money available to purchase new stocks so let me know what you think leave in the comments below if you have any questions also leave them in the comments below you can also email me directly on my website remember if you can open an account with quest rate to trade on stock market and use my referral code in the description below the video so you can get between $25 and $250 depending on your initial deposit if you like this video please like share with your friends and subscribe to the channel thanks for watching
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