저자: ShihabPersonalFinance · 외국인
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결론: 엔비디아 실적 발표 전 아이언 버터플라이 옵션 거래로 하루 만에 135달러 수익을 냈으나, 실적 후 주가 하락을 예상한 방향성 가정이 들어간 전략이라는 설명. 거래 구조: 11월 14일 엔비디아가 약 209~210달러일 때 205달러 행사가 콜·풋을 매도하고 200·210 행사가를 매수하는 아이언 버터플라이를 체결. 순수익 한도는 약 454달러 수취액, 최대 손실은 약 46달러(행사가 차 500달러에서 수취액을 뺀 금액)로 설명. 실제 진행: 당일 시가가 211달러로 시작해 이미 최대손실 구간에 진입. 이후 201달러까지 하락했다가 207달러에서 303달러에 청산. 청산 후 주가는 마감 204.19달러로, 기다렸다면 약 25달러에 청산해 약 425달러 수익이 가능했을 것이라고 언급. 결과: 수수료 16달러 포함 순수익 약 135달러. 행운의 요소가 있었다고 인정. 전략 철학: 실적 발표 전 옵션 프리미엄(내재변동성)이 비싸고 발표 직후 급락하는 경향을 이용해, 실적 전 옵션을 매도하고 발표 직후 되사는 방식이 유리하다고 설명. 평소에는 방향성 가정을 피하고 현재가 근처에서 매도하지만, 이번에는 급등 후 조정을 예상해 205달러 행사가를 택했다고 밝힘. 가격 전망: 엔비디아의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음. 실적 후 하락 가능성을 언급했으나 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시하지 않음. 리스크: 옵션 최대손실 구간 진입, 방향 예측 실패 시 손실 확대 가능성.
다듬은 글
I want to talk about this earnings trade I did on Nvidia so Thursday November 14 when in video was trading at around 2 between 208 and 210 I knew that in video was gonna announce earnings after market so after 4 o'clock when market closes and video was going to announce its earnings so I placed an options trade an iron fly or an Iron Butterfly and since Nvidia has gone up like crazy in the past 6 months as you can see I felt I made an assumption I made a directional assumption I felt like Nvidia was gonna drop a bit after earnings just because it had gone up a lot already so I felt like he was gonna pull back after earnings announcement so when Nvidia was trading at 210 or 209 I sold an Iron Butterfly at a 205 strike as you could see here the second line here I sold the 205 call and the 205 put and then I bought the 210 call and I bought the 200 foot for protection you could see the difference between the short strike and the long strike is $5 for that I collected as you could see here four dollars and fifty four cents I did one contract so times 100 shares I collected 454 dollars since the difference between the short strike and the long strike is only 5 or $500 my max loss is worst case scenario when max loss is $500 - the credit that I already received so 500 - 454 so my max loss on this trade is $46 and my max loss would happen would occur if come expiration of November 15 NVIDIA is trading below 200 so below the long option the long put option or above the long call option the 210 so come November 15 which is the expiration if invidious trading above 210 or below 200 I would be achieving max loss I would have to buy back this trade for $5.00 or $500 that's the max and pay $500 because that's the difference between the long and the short now since I already collected four hundred and fifty four dollars on this trade then my max loss is only forty six dollars now for me to keep all of this four hundred and fifty four dollars Nvidia would have to trade at exactly two hundred and five dollars come four pm November 15 now if you look at the action of Nvidia now of course I don't know where Nvidia is gonna land throughout the day of course Nvidia actually started the day at 211 so already when the day started this trade for me was a loser I had already accepted that I would achieve max loss on this trade because the day started in videos at 2:11 it already went past my 2:10 long call option so since I'm already achieving max loss I decided to hold on to it wait till the end of the day and see what happens it might move and guess what it did move it slowly dropped dropped dropped it went all the way down to 201 even so it almost went to the other side of this trade so even below 200 I would achieve max loss so it went from one extreme of the max loss to the other extremity of the max loss but I have placed an order had placed a limit order and my trade got executed I ended up closing it when he was trading at around 207 so when I was training at 211 in my mind it's already a max loss but I didn't close it decided to give it a chance till the end of the day and when it dropped at 207 I don't know if it's gonna continue dropping it might go back up and then I would regret not closing it at 207 I have no idea where it's going so I decided to close it at 207 so as you kids here I paid three hundred and three dollars to close it so I sold it yesterday or November 14 I sold it for four hundred and fifty four dollars and in November 15 I bought it back for three hundred and three dollars now if you look at it Nvidia at the end of the day it closed at 204 point nineteen so in fact if I had to wait I told the end of the day completely I could have closed this trade for around twenty-five dollars so instead of closing it for three hundred three dollars I could have closed it for $25 and then I would have made a profit of almost four hundred and twenty five dollars but of course how am I supposed to know that in video was gonna close at 204 I mean I closed it when it was trading around here at 207 closed it at 9:50 a.m.
if I had waited and then I had seen it go all the way down to 201 I would have been pissed at myself that I didn't closed it earlier and even at 201 I would not have known that it was gonna go back up and then even then it went all the way up to 207 again I probably would have tried to close it then and even when it was trading at 205 which is where I would achieve max profit because there's told time in the trade and there's still some premiums left some time value left in the options so I will not have been able to close it for $0 when it was trading at 205 throughout the day to really achieve max profit it has to be trading at 205 come expiration final minutes so I could have closed it for less throughout the day I probably could have closed it for maybe $200 maybe 150 dollars throughout the day when I was trading around here but definitely if I waited till the last minute I would have closed it for around 25 dollars would have made very close to max profit but instead I made a profit of 151 dollars - Commission's though better move Commission sell Commission's to have open the trade and Commission to close the trade total combined is $16 so I made a profit of 135 dollars us with this one day trade on Nvidia obviously there was an element of luck but it comes from placing a lot of trades by watching the stock a lot you tend to understand the behavior normally I don't like to make assumptions on the direction so I'll usually just sell at the same price it's trading at so normally while Invidia was trading at 2:09 or to attend on November 14 I would have sold a an Iron Butterfly at 2:09 or 210 but the only reason I went with a 205 short strike in this case because I felt like Nvidia had gone up a lot and quickly the past three months so I felt like it had a better chance of dropping a little bit even at 210 I probably could have made a profit if had closed it early in the morning cuz early in the morning it was trading at around 210 so if I had sold an Iron Butterfly at a 210 strike instead of a 205 strike I probably would have closed it could have closed it for the same thing but it's just disappointing to see that if I had to held on to it till the end of the day could have made four hundred and twenty five dollar profit but of course I don't know that I don't know where it's going so can't be too disappointed but it still hurts to see that so this is type of trades I like to make during earnings because most of the time stocks do not move outside of expected range the volatility that's priced in the option premiums before earnings is very high and drops right after earnings is announced so by placing an option selling strategy before earnings and then buying it back right after earnings most of the time you can take advantage of the expensive premiums that's priced in the options for earnings and close it for less right after earnings all right so if you have any questions leave them in the comment section below always if you're gonna open an account with quest rate to trade on the stock market use my referral code in the description below the video to get up to 250 dollars back thanks for watching
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