Tech Stocks to Climb 20% 25% in 2026, Says Dan Ives 1

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Dan Ives는 AI 버블 우려가 2026년 전망을 잘못 보고 있다며 AI 사이클은 3이닝 차이고 기술주는 2026년 20~25% 추가 상승 여력이 있다고 주장. 2026년은 'prove it year'이나 AI 2단계(자율주행·로보틱스·임베디드 AI)로 넘어가며 엔비디아·테슬라가 피지컬 AI 최선호주. 빅테크 M&A 확대, 중국 기술주(알리바바·텐센트·BYD)에도 우호적. 마이크로소프트 AI 수익화(250~300억 달러 증분) 과소평가 주장, 애플은 AI 참여로 75~100달러 목표 제시.

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01. Everyone yelling AI bubble is looking at 2026 all wrong. Dan Ies says we're only in the third inning and tech still has another 20 to 25% upside left in this cycle. You talk about Tesla, it's the next phase in terms of autonomous robotics, consumer AI, especially when it comes to Apple. And I think what we're going to see, look, I think it's it's a prove it year, but that actually makes me more bullish because I think now we go into the next phase of AI.

02. I think tech stocks are up 20 25% in 2026, but it's not just big tech. It's about second, third, fourth derivatives playing out. I I will be fascinated to see. I don't think anything is officially expected, but you're going to CES, right, which is not only the biggest tech uh conference in the world, but has become the most important car maker conference as well.

03. It'll be fascinating to see if Tesla comes out with any other products there um or if we see a lot more robotics and automization products. Yeah. And to your point, look, it all starts with the godfather of AI, Jensen. He'll be there with the black leather jacket because when his speech to me is just so important on Monday because it really starts off strategically what AI is going to look like.

04. He's going to talk about physical AI terms of autonomous robotics and the two best physical AI plays in the world today. It's Nvidia and it's Tesla. And I think that speaks to you to about Tesla what everyone's focused on. This is autonomous chapter now coming to Tesla. I think you see Musk right now wartime CEO that's the focus when it comes to AI but also it's the monetization remember only 3% of US companies have gone down the AI path so far.

05. Are these robots expected to be like B2B robots so building things in factories or like a Roomba for consumers? Um what kind of products do you expect them to to monetize? Yeah, especially at CS, look, humanoid robotics is going to be front and center. Autonomous, you're seeing flying cars, a lot of the chi, look, the presence, you talk about a lot of the tensions between US and China.

06. The presence of Chinese companies is going to be it's going to be a monster in terms of what we see there and I think doubling, you know, over the last few years. But I think it's really going to be about humanoid robotics. It's going to be about autonomous, but it's gonna This is also going to be about more embedded AI devices that consumers are going to see.

07. Sees, we're not just talking about flying drones and refrigerators that talk to you. Now, these are much more sort of front and center in terms of it's a who's who. Every big tech player is going to be there, even if they're not unofficially there. They're there to look for acquisitions. I love the idea of opening the refrigerator and having it say, "Do you really want that?" I mean I can just imagine the future for you know move over ompic.

08. So there's this question here also about what some of the moves in late 2025 mean and I'd love your take on this because we saw some acquisitions uh made by the likes of Meta and Nvidia and I just wonder whether there's more costconsciousness and more of a competitive advantage that they're looking to solidify at a time where suddenly companies are saying hold on what are we paying for this and what are we actually getting?

09. Look, I think you hit on a great point because the reality is this isn't it's an arms race. That's what's going on with big tech. And right now at the top of that mountain is big tech. And when you look at like Google's win versus DOJ, antirust, I mean this is sort of go time for big tech. And I think you're going to see more and more acquisitions.

10. You we've talked about not just on enterprise, on energy, and I think really across the board. And it it speaks to really what we're seeing right here is that it's not just about big tech getting bigger and bigger, doing acquisition, spending. You're going to have 600 billion in capbacks in big tech, but it's also going to see other players being like, "Don't forget about me.

11. Look at AMD." You know, you you're going to see like look at Cisco, look at other look at IBM. I mean, there's going to be a lot of other players saying like, "Hey, we want to get into that AI party. We don't want to look through the windows, you know, like a lot of the bears are." We were talking about BYD triumphed over Tesla to become the world's biggest electric vehicle manufacturer.

12. We also have seen big tech in China outperform on an equity market perspective in 2025. Do you expect that to continue and for China to really solidify more of its neckand-neck position with the US or even supersede it? Look, I think the reality is . And I think that's very important. Obviously led by Nvidia, Microsoft, Palanteer and others.

13. But in China, look, we're we're bullish on China tech. We talk about Alibaba, you look at Tencent, you look at a lot of the other names there. I think what you're seeing is it's a narrowing, but it's something where you're seeing robotics really play front and center, autonomous, EVs, BYD, and others in China.

14. But when you think about the how to play it, you have to play US tech and then there are Chinese tech players to go after. But in terms of AI revolution, we said it's third inning, one out relative to this AI game. And I think the Bears, like I said, like in hibernation mode, they can see AI in the spreadsheets.

15. And I think 2026 is going to be a year that's going to be another bull market year for, you know, for tech and for AI. I I I had really the same question as Lisa again because we've seen so many stories this morning about BU's chip unit filing for an IPO. Another uh chip designer I think Briner um with a very successful IPO today.

16. Another maybe another mini deepseeek moment right with um a cheaper artificial intelligence all among the most read stories on the Bloomberg terminal. So clients are paying attention to what's going on in China with AI. How do you bet on that? I mean, do you buy the individual stocks? Is there an ETF that you like?

17. Do you have some of these stocks in your ETF? Yeah, sure. So, obviously, you know, for the Ives ETF, I mean, what we really focus on is the the AI30, you know, like who are the 30 winners? We have a few of the Chinese players in there. I think BU, you know, you look at Huawei in terms of the success they're having.

18. Look, right now, Nvidia's four to five years ahead of any other chip player. And I think that's well known. That's why even a third rate H200 restricted China big tech's going to line up despite where the politics in Beijing. But this is an arms race. You're it's the narrowing of the gap. You want to play some of those Chinese tech players.

19. But the reality is in the US from Nvidia, AMD, we talked about our top five, Palunteer, Crowd and Cyber Security, Tesla, I think it's going to be the most important year ever for them. Microsoft I think on hypers scale right now. Microsoft, Oracle, those are names I think you know table pounders in my opinion in terms of what we see and then Apple finally you know they come to the AI party instead of being on the treadmill 2.0 speed and now they actually start to get in terms of the consumer AI revolution $75 to $100 per share.

20. There's only one company that you didn't mention that's on your list and that's Microsoft. Where is Microsoft in terms of winning out versus Google? Who is its main competitor? Look, in terms of Redmond, what they're the enterprise, this is their backyard. When you think about companies that are moving to AI, they're the first phone call goes to Nadella.

21. And I think you're seeing Google, you're seeing Amazon, what Jasse is doing, they're narrowing the gap and they're going to be success. But when I look at when I look at Microsoft, you have 25 30 billion incremental monetization. I don't even think factor into street numbers. That's right. And the stock ultimately has a six in front of it.

22. And I think this is going to be we're going to go into January into earning season. I think that's going to be kind of the show me story showing like look this is not stopping. Like we said AI party started at 9:00 p.m. is now 10:30 10:45 p.m. Me and Lisa are asleep 100%. That's exactly what I was saying. that party, but but the party goes to 4 a.m.