저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 붐은 아직 초기이며 1996년과 유사하고 1999~2000년 버블이 아니라고 주장. 소프트웨어(팔란티어, MongoDB, Snowflake)와 파생 수혜주(CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) 저평가 강조. 오라클·OpenAI 관련주는 과매도로 보고 Oracle을 낙관. 엔비디아는 5년 앞선 경쟁력 보유, AMD 주요 플레이로 언급. 에너지(전력) 부족이 최대 제약이며 원자력이 유망. CES 2026 관련 기대, 양자 컴퓨팅 강세 전망. 기술주는 2026년 25% 상승 전망.
다듬은 글
Everyone calling this an AI bubble is making the same mistake people made in 1996. Dan Ies says we're at the start of the party, not the end. And most investors are still massively underexposed AI. But look, I think the reality is is that despite a lot of the haters and the bears in hibernation mood, it is going to be I think just a booming year for AI and tech stocks, especially in the first half of the year.
I think investors are underestimating specifically on software like we talk about not just Palanteer but MongoDB Snowflake a lot of the infrastructure plays Nebius and some of those others it's about the derivative plays the second third fourth derivatives crowd strike cyber security pow alto and and I think what we're going to see play out Microsoft Oracle look I think we sit here a year from now Oracle is the name that I think investors are just throwing in the garbage.
That's the one I think investors are getting. So because just the view like taking on debt, open AI is not going to be good for their bill. Look, if you look at any open AI related tech stock from AMD to, you know, to Microsoft to to Oracle, those stocks have sold off significantly. And I think the reality is this is an AI revolution where you're in we talk about the AI party it's 10:30 10:45 p.m.
party goes to 4:00 a.m. start at 9:00 p.m. And open AI is going to play a huge role in that in the infrastructure buildout. So to me Paul it's like I think like tech stocks they're up 25% really 25 2026 but I mean is that the big names like Nvidia because I think to myself lots of competition out there for them.
First of all, supply chain challenges continue, but you've also got Google and Amazon, big competitors who who are playing catch-up with Nvidia. Can can it really hold on to that momentum in 2026? Look, there's only one godfather of AI. He's wearing a black leather jacket. His name's Jensen. And I think look, they are 5 years ahead of any other competitor.
That's why look for them like even their third best chip restricted H200's right in China despite whatever the politic baba JD 10 they want those chips because it comes down to like they are so many years ahead of competition I think look AMD that's going to be a major play that we see playing out and then I think you start to look at like what Google's doing what Microsoft is doing in ter in in this chip world.
It's in an AI arms race. But here's the deal. . How about that? That that is I think that's really like the most important thing here. That's getting lost in the sauce. I feel what you just said. Well, it is because for so many times like I'd be in Taiwan 18 hours seeing like factory fabs then land in New York airport there's some fist fight Dunkin Donuts and you're like wow we are like so behind
now y switched so is open AI going to go public in 2026 and is that going to be a seminal event for I think early 27 okay they go they could file maybe by the late 26 but but I think that's the like SpaceX, you you think about anthropic, you think about Open AI. Look, the reality is is that, you know, people talk about bubble, some of the best companies that are haven't even gone public yet.
And I think there's there's a supply demand for big growth names. And that's why to me I think investors that are saying it's a bubble text done they're doing it from the 25th floor of a New York City office building or metro north right I mean the reality is like for someone like me that sees it globally sees the demand demand the supply is 12 to1
for Nvidia chips today in Asia but here's the question is there enough energy out there to meet that supply because that's one of the big it's the biggest challenge going forward that's look if you think like the thing to me that like if you're just like what could spoil the AI party, it's not about demand, fourth industrial revolution.
It's not about like the use cases. It's energy and regulation and look energy that's why like you know you look what's happened on nuclear, you saw the TAE deal with you know obviously Trump media, you saw what Google's doing in terms of them buying their own energy company. I mean, energy is the biggest restriction in the US, but I continue to believe like nuclear is going to be the play there.
CES, it's 200, 250, 300,000 people to send on Vegas for it, and it's been at going there for 40 years. I've been going to this thing. This one feels like we might get like a seinal announcement coming out of this, whether it's a product, a service, an investment, a deal. It just feels like maybe this CES might be something where something really material pops out of
Vegas. I agree because like look for so many years CES is like ah great a refrigerator that talks to you a cool drone that now it's really become like central to the to when you think about the AI revolution I think when you talk about chips when you look what's coming out of AMD I think Nvidia is really going to double down on robotics.
I think quantum is another one. If you go back a year ago, that's where Jensen was sort of Quantum's like 10, 15 years away. Quantum stocks sold up. I actually think there's going to be a lot more bullish when it comes to quantum. And look, I know half the companies that I know that are going there, they're not officially there.
Yeah. Why are they going there? They're not going there to, you know, to to go to the Cosmo, go to the wind for dinner. They're going because they're looking they're looking for acquisition. I kind of feel like during CES, if I talk to a CEO I think my first question is gonna be why are you not in Vegas?
Like I don't care what business you're in. I'm in the paint. You're touched by the technology. Yeah. Exactly. But to Paul's point, you it's this isn't just about like consumer gadgets, 100inch televisions that somehow talk to you. Now it's really become central to like where the techn think about the Chinese presence there in terms of Xping, BYD, everyone else.
M you think about autonomous robotics and that's why like I think the one thing like to stress to anyone listening is like this is AI is not just about like chat GPT what model do you use we are now this is the year Apple goes deep dives into the deep end pool when it comes to AI and the consumer side we're now going to hit the next level of the AI revolution but this is a 1996 moment not 1999 2000 bubble moment
yes thankfully Do we do we expect a big China presence at this thing given the relationship right now between the US and China? If you're a China tech company, you you have to come here. I think like when I think about like the presence last year that was already significant. This year it is it's booming because for them okay like they're not going to be able to sell into the US at least currently.
But this for them it's a flex to muscles on the global stage in terms of them selling South America, Europe, Australia. I mean that the world descends upon the world cuz like when you this is the world event but to Paul's point like if you're not there it's almost like being at a wedding at a table by the kitchen with random people instead of being at like kind of like Paul.
He's always like front and center like he's at the cool table. Matt Campbell named 17th Penn State head football coach. What do you think? Look, I think Campbell like he is the right guy for Penn State. I mean, it's not just that. It's the staff he's going to bring in. He's he knows how to recruit. I think he's the magic formula.
I think now we'll get Danton Lynn from USC as a defensive coordinator. This is going to build the stage to what I view like people will say next year I got to rebuild here. I disagree. Like I think this gets us back into the playoffs next year and it goes back to the dream for a natty in in 27 or 28.
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