저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오는 장기 부채 사이클과 부·정치적 격차, 강대국 부상이라는 세 가지 힘이 현재 시장과 경제 환경을 좌우한다고 진단한다. 현재 중앙은행과 정부가 유동성을 공급하는 후기 사이클 단계이며, 금리가 0이나 마이너스인 상황에서 현금은 실질 마이너스 수익률로 가치가 훼손된다. 이러한 환경에서는 과거와 다른 저수익 자산 환경이 예상되며, 유동성이 초과수익을 끌어내려 모든 자산의 수익률이 낮아진다. 투자 전략으로는 전통적인 60/40 주식·채권 배분을 넘어 금, 물가연동채, 통화 노출 등을 포함한 광범위한 분산이 필요하다고 강조한다. 현금을 가장 안전한 자산으로 보는 통념은 틀렸으며, 현금은 변동성은 낮지만 인플레이션과 화폐 가치 하락으로 실질 손실을 본다는 점을 지적한다. 세금 정책, 지정학, 바이러스 재확산 등 불확실성이 커서 유동성 확보와 신중한 분산 베팅이 더 중요해졌다고 결론짓는다. 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 구체적인 가격 방향 예측은 언급되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
i experienced through my lifetime uh surprises about things that never happened in my lifetime before but happened many times in history before and um uh the three forces that we're talking about which is um there is a long-term debt cycle um which will get into um the the large wealth and uh political gaps that go with it and the rise of a great power to challenging existing great power happened in the 1930-45 period and happened many times before and are the big drivers not just of the economic environment but of of the whole environment so let me start with the the debt cycle um um there are you know in 1945 we began a new world order 1944 we created a new monetary system the bretton woods monetary system and then we created that new world order and that created a bull markets and stocks and an american world order for the most part there's a cycle that we're used to in which whenever you have a economic downturn the central bank hits the gas and can create debt expansion and that produces an increase in demand and that happens in three phases at the cycle normally it's interest rates you lower interest rates and the economy turns up but when you hit zero interest rates uh which happened in 1932 debt crisis 1932 we hit zero interest rates then you go to the second type of monetary policy in which central banks print money and buy financial assets to add liquidity and those purchases those sellers of bonds who get the cash go out and they buy other financial assets and we have the process going through and that's the second type of monetary policy so the only two times that that happened was not uh 2008 to 9 19 29 to 19 32 zero interest rates print money monetization that'll carry you so far and then um there's what i call monetary policy three which means that um that money does not trickle down to the population and go all the places that it's needed to go and that monetary policy means that there has to be the um what we're seeing now in monetary policy in other words the coordination between fiscal and monetary policy so that the central bank is buying assets of a different sort a wide range for a wide range of assets producing liquidity and also produ having the um effect of buying government debt and monetizing it and that's the late cycle of of an expansion that's what's driving the markets now that's what's driving the economy now um for example today the federal reserve and the the government is creating the liquidity that we're seeing in the markets and it has big implications for the value of money what is the value of money where does money go cash is going to be a poor investment and so it goes elsewhere so that's the character of the environment um which means that if you look at the returns of asset classes um and you take cash isn't it an interesting world when you have zero or negative interest rates and um then there's the desire to create a spread in that so the short-term rates are lower than long-term rates and there's and then when there's so much liquidity it is the central bank that is making that market so when we look at the market today um it needs the storehold of wealth and you see it reflected in all asset classes so that's the main driver and it also has very big geopolitical implications because as we come into this environment where we have the second influence the wealth gap the political gap it um means that the distinction of how money and the bills are going to be divided and how that uh will affect tax policy and the like will matter a lot how should people invest and what is the correct asset allocation for this sort of environment well um the most important the investment environment going forward will be very different from the environment of the past i mean think about it as a zero and low very low returning asset environment because the liquidity that's in the market is driving the excess returns of all markets down to be low in relationship to the very low cash rate so negative real returns not good for cash until the most important thing is to know how to diversify well and what i mean by that is to go beyond um just the traditional 60 40 stock bond mix or even the same countries um and to broaden that diversification to include in that portfolio assets that might um seem um unusual to include some gold to include inflation index bonds to incl to think about the currency exposure to think about safety as different most people think that cash is safe cash is the least safe investment it just doesn't have the same volatility to it but it has um because they're producing so much cash it has a negative real return um it's a tax um that maybe two percent a year you lose money in terms of cash so you have to think about risk differently and you have to diversify best that's the most important thing to have a well-diversified portfolio it's so the uncertainties that we have today are so great in terms of all the things i mentioned the tax policies the geopolitical certainly we must experience it with the virus you know will the next wave come back and how will it be dear diversification can be achieved without reducing your expected returns because of the way that nature asset classes are priced and then when if you're going to take tactical bets from those then those tactical bets alpha on top of that strategic well-diversified portfolio should have highly diversified bets deviated liquidity is going to be more important than before um because things change in unexpected ways look at how um in many of the cases the businesses that you one would have thought was a good business and let's say you're in private equity and that you're with that company and so the restructuring the ability to rebalance and diversify and to make and to be cautious about making a highly diversified uh set of bets is i think the future but thinking even of asset classes thinking about the value of money you know we look at asset classes and we say oh do i want my money to be in stocks and which stocks but we don't think about stocks bonds we think about those traditional asset classes but we don't think about the value of money and what's going to happen in terms of the printing of that value of the money and how to diversifies it well so i think those are the things that have to be paid attention to um in much as they were important things in years prior to 1945. we're in a new paradigm you
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