저자: 빌애크먼 · 외국인
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결론: 이 영상에서 애크먼은 구체적인 가격 방향 예측은 거의 하지 않고, 행동주의 투자와 기업 경영 개입의 가치를 강조한다. 행동주의 투자 철학: 자신들은 단기 거래자가 아니라 1년에 한두 건 정도 지분을 사서 적극적으로 경영에 개입하는 투자자라고 설명한다. 업무 개선을 통해 기업 가치를 높이는 것이 목표다. 투자 사례: 하워드휴즈, 프록터앤갬블(P&G), 제너럴그로스, 캐나디안퍼시픽 철도 등을 언급하며 경영진 교체와 사업 개선으로 성과를 냈다고 주장한다. 제너럴그로스는 금융위기 때 주가가 약 63달러에서 20~30센트까지 떨어졌다가 34달러 수준으로 회복시켰다고 말한다. 실패 사례: 제이씨페니는 리스크가 큰 투자였으며 모든 투자가 성공하지는 않는다고 인정한다. 월가와 고용: 월가가 자본 조달을 통해 기업 성장과 일자리 창출의 가장 큰 엔진이라고 주장하며, 사모펀드의 과도한 레버리지는 문제지만 좋은 사모펀드는 경제적 가치를 많이 만든다고 평가한다. 헤지펀드: 전체 헤지펀드 수익률은 자본 규모 확대와 규제 강화로 저하됐다고 진단한다. 개별적으로 뛰어난 운용사도 존재한다는 입장이다. 정책 및 기타: 기업 친화적 정책과 글로벌 경쟁력 있는 세제가 국가 경제에 중요하며, 자선보다 좋은 경제정책이 국가를 살린다고 말한다. 기부서약(Giving Pledge)과 관련해 재산의 절반 이상을 기부할 계획임을 언급한다. 시장 전체나 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 전망은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
right if you think about a cap the the stock market most of the investors in the stock market are passive right they index funds they mutual funds they're exchange traded funds many investors trade all the time it's very healthy thing for the market to have someone place a bet where they buy 10% of a company and where they are take a business that is underperformed for 10 years and bring in a CEO like Hunter Harrison and turn around a railroad that's a great thing for the market and it's a very healthy thing for the economy you're about transaction you know you want to buy and then you want to sell and you want to make a huge profit now we can it may be you want to buy after 10 years or 15 years sell after 15 years but it's a transactional thing rather than spending a whole lot of money uh to really run a business and create a product and do all those kinds of things you know the argument even Paul vuler made this argument too many people are going to Wall Street too many smart people and and working with you and it's all about transactions I don't about building something well let me let me let me take a account to that in terms of what we do so we're not about transactions at all in fact we do very few transactions maybe one or two a year we buy stakes in business not a pure Trader we're not a Trader at all we don't trade we buy a stake in a business we get actively involved in the business we work to make the business more valuable and by the way pretty much everything we've ever owned with the exception of borders has a higher value today than it did after we sold it which means that the impact that we've had on the business has been positive I'm also an you know an executive officer officer of a business I'm I'm the chairman of the board of a company called Howard Hughes this is a business that I created it's a business I created by taking 34 assets outside of General growth sticking them into a new company recruiting a management team building a board of directors uh and this company's doing marvelous things so for example in in New York City we own the South Street seport uh management team again I want to take credit for their work but what they've accomplished is they got approvals to do a new uh they're going to completely transform the seport they're going to do a new development there we're building uh new shopping center uh in uh in Las Vegas we're changing kind of the landscape in Hawaii with a 60 acre development of 9 million s feet of of real estate so these are companies that are building and adding enormous value and the business that would not have happened uh were we not to have taken a stake in general growth and spun off that entity what about proor gamble uh Proctor gamble uh great company uh we uh 175 years of you know generally pretty fabulous successes great brand names great brand names uh last four years have been very difficult for the company you came in adamant to remove Bob McDonald you know we thought it was time he was CEO and by the way he hadn't been there that long he had been there about four years okay that's long and uh he had been with the company obviously a long period of time and uh you know the because most of the capital in the stock market is passive investors can't themselves make these kind of changes so they rely on someone to take a lead okay which we did in Proctor and Gamble by the way in Proctor and Gamble I worked very quietly with the lead director we would speak periodically it was only when we felt it was time that I made a public presentation about what the concerns were at PNG and a couple weeks later Bob I think resigned of his own of his own doing now that Stock's gone you know it's up5 ce's come back one of the legendary names and AJ lley is a fabulous CEO and I think he's going to do a great job turning the business he's also working on recruiting the next founder of the company but as a you know I got enormous number of phone calls from Proctor and Gamble alums uh Thanking us for the work that we did at at PNG and the same thing is true at at General growth I mean if you look at the bu pound family had a $5 billion net worth going into the the financial crisis that was down to 25 million when the uh General growth stock went from $63 to a share to 20 30 cents we helped take it back to $34 a share that's been a great thing not just for a wealthy family but for the the Pension funds that own that stock for the you know I get thank you notes from investors who've invested alongside us so what's the drive for you what's the motivation um one I think what we do is important I think I'm making you know I do a lot of so you're making companies stronger because you come in and you have a certain amount of power because you have a certain amount of investment and therefore you would like to say that if you look at your track record you do much better in making companies stronger than you do in weakening companies in anyway that's absolutely true I mean I don't think anyone would ever accuse us of weakening a business now JC Penney not every investment is going to work out you know uh there was more risk in JC Penning than pretty much every other investment we've made because of the nature of the changes that we what the attraction for you if there was more risk than anything else you've ever done the potential for reward right and what's the reward if you look at the reward is simply how much money you make for you no look I I don't keep score or what no I don't need more money uh I'm not I'm not motivated by uh Financial returns I I'm motivated by one I one have a great uh uh track record you know if you look at Buffett he's had a whatever a 60-year track record so I've got uh I'm 20 years in but the record's been good so far but you know I'd like to have one of the best track records in bu anual growth I'm not allowed to comment on returns um that's a an SEC restriction but the um you can look around they're I'll tell you they're quite good but what I like you know I've done a lot of philanthropic work over the last uh number of years I actually think I make a much greater contribution through what I do in the in my for-profit activities than I do in my not for-profit and not only that you've signed a giving pledge that is true right that is true um it's very true meaning that you don't want to leave it to your children you're going to leave it to half of it at least yes charity well more than half yeah well more than half but but what's I think what people forget uh is you know Wall Street has unfortunately in the last uh certainly since the crisis got a pretty bad name but Wall Street is responsible is is probably the biggest engine for job creation you know enabling businesses to access Capital enabling businesses to to grow I mean you look at Howard Hughes was a a creation out of thin air it's now a business that employs you know it's going to ultimately employ thousands of people create a ton of do you think the criticism of Mitt Romney during the campaign for his activities in running a private Equity Firm one Fair yes yes absolutely uh I think uh good private Equity investors create a lot more economic value than they destroy and and and grow more jobs than they save they grow a ton of jobs I think the biggest risk with private Equity save jobs that would be going away the biggest problem with private Equity is some their periods of time with private Equity firms use too much leverage which puts too much pressure on a business and and risks a business as failure putting aside that I think you know the the top private Equity firms create a lot of economic value too much leverage and too much was part of the problem of the economic recession we went through but we're we're not going to save the country with philanthropy despite the fact I you know I'm philanthropic I don't think that's going to solve our economic issues what will save the country will save the country are good economic policies uh that create the right incentives and a Administration that's supportive of the business Community I think that's actually very very important and uh you know policies that will make us competitive globally you know it's a it's a global economy and you there a story today I think in today's Journal about companies merging with uh European businesses to move their operations offshore from a tax point of view we have to have a tax policy that discourages that kind of AC you can bring the money home yeah Ian I look at the unit idea have a tax policy so that the money can come home rather than leaving off source so you don't have to pay taxes on it yes but I I think if you you know the United States is not dissimilar uh to the kind of companies we invest in we invest generally in very good companies that have lost their way and with better management enormous value can be created if you look at Canan Pacific this was a dying railroad one your Investments it's a dying railroad under Hunter Harrison in a very short order you know less than you know a year and a half he's made dramatic changes to the business the president is the CEO of this business that we call America and the decisions he makes with respect to you know way incentives are designed the way he works with Congress as a as a leader and effectuating policy change can make an enormous difference in the growth R of the country and job creation and happiness in our safety um I think I think that we we can't diminish the importance of business and business practices I mean you look at what Bloomberg has accomplished as a mayor of of of New York City he took uh his for-profit mentality and uh has applied to a city and I think the city has accordingly thrived I'd love to see the same thing happen for the country it's tough management too yeah it's also he has the benefit of Independence um Financial Independence it's enormous benefit so you're not obligated anybody particularly very important so we should only elect rich people no um but we should I think that there's a lot to be said uh to have someone with uh a business background making decisions about the economy just for just because I don't quite understand this I mean are hedge is Hedge done performance down uh if you yes if you look at the overall statistics yes and why is that uh the answer is I think there are a lot more participants uh I think that there have been so it looked like it was it was just a a sweet place to be and it's less sweet now it's become a much greater percentage of the amount of capital that's invested and the scale by just the math makes it harder for that Capital to grow at a high enough rate I also think there's been some regulatory change that's made it harder for certain kinds of hedge funds to make money you know I think it used to be that um you know people could uh uh you hear of hedge funds that would just you know ask enough questions that they would get answers ahead of the market and there's some there was some bad behavior that took place and and the government put Place we've had some inside of trading issues as well yeah and I think a lot the Crackdown on that stuff has maybe taken away some of the bad returns from from the business but I think the biggest driver has been uh the uh the fact that the business has scaled but look it's just like the mutual fund industry as a collective it's not particularly attractive place to invest your money but there are a few very good mutual fund managers who've done a lot better than the market over time same thing's true for hedge funds same thing's true for investors in real estate if you weren't an investor what would you be um that's a good question I mean I would do what I do now even if I weren't compensated uh for doing it um because I think it's a way for me to make the biggest contribution that I could make I mean I I look I think about uh government if I could if I could effectuate change the same way I can effectuate change in the in the private sector but I think I can have more influence as a private participant than a than a public participant thanks
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