저자: 미상 · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 워런 버핏의 발언을 인용하며 약세장에서의 심리적 대응과 장기 분산투자(인덱스 펀드)의 중요성을 강조하는 교육 영상이다. [약세장·심리 대응] 버핏은 버크셔 해서웨이 주가가 역사상 세 차례 50% 하락한 사례를 언급하며, 빚을 내 투자한 경우 버틸 수 없었을 것이라고 설명했다. 주가 하락에 휘둘려 매매하면 잘못된 시점에 사고팔게 되므로, 투자자는 심리적으로 버틸 준비가 되어 있어야 한다고 했다. [시장 예측에 대한 입장] 버핏은 오늘이 주식을 사기 좋은 날인지 모른다고 밝혔다. 20~30년 뒤에는 수익이 나겠지만 2년 뒤 결과는 알 수 없다는 취지다. [군중 심리와 사이클] 투자자들은 강세장에서 과거 수익을 보고 흥분해 추격 매수하고, 약세장에서는 실망해 매도한다는 주장이다. 1965~1982년 같은 장기 정체기 사례를 들며, 이런 군중 심리가 큰 기회를 만든다고 설명했다. [인덱스 펀드 전략] 버핏은 1942년 첫 주식을 산 이후 가장 잘한 일로 인덱스 펀드 매수를 꼽았다. 배당을 재투자하는 1만 달러 인덱스 펀드가 장기적으로 약 5,100만 달러가 된다는 예시를 들었다. [언급 종목·자산] 개별 종목 방향 예측은 없으며, 버크셔 해서웨이 주가의 과거 하락 사례만 언급됐다. [리스크·조건] 단기 시장 예측은 불가능하며, 감정 통제와 장기 보유가 핵심 조건이라고 강조했다. [출연자 전망] 단기 전망은 제시하지 않았고, 장기적으로 국가 경제와 증시가 성장한다는 견해를 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
hey good people in this video i am going to show you the world's greatest investor mr warren buffett but first make sure you hit the like subscribe and the notification bell make sure you don't fall for any spam uh mr warren buffett will be talking about inflation interest rates how to invest in a bear market what happens through a bull market into a bear market he's going to talk about brookshire hathaway how it performed through all of that and he's going to talk about dollar cost averaging in remember to click all my links or should i say check out all my links at the end of this video here's some short videos from the world's greatest investor the oracle mr warren buffett i pointed out that there have been three times in berkshire's history when the price of berkshire stock went down 50 percent three different times now if you owed it on borrowed money you would you know you could have been cleaned out uh there wasn't anything wrong with berkshire uh when those three times occurred but if you're going to if you're going to look at the price of the stock uh and think that you have to act because it's doing this or that or somebody else tells you why you know how can you stay with that when something else is going up or anything you really you've got to be in the right psychological position and frankly some people are not really careful some people are more subject to fear than than others it's it it's it's like the virus that strikes some people with a much greater ferocity than than others and and fear is uh there is something i really never felt financially but but i don't think charlie's felt it either but uh some people can handle psychology if you can't handle it psychologically then you really shouldn't know sucks because you're going to buy and sell them at the wrong time and you should not count on somebody else telling you you should do something you understand yourself if you don't understand it yourself you're going to be affected by the next person you talk to and uh so you should you should be in a position to hold and i don't know whether today is a a great day to buy stocks i know it will work out over 20 or 30 years i don't know whether it'll work out over two years at all i have no idea whether you'll be ahead or behind on a stock you buy on monday morning you say to yourself how could it be that you could have a country that was doing better and better and better and better citizens were living every every generation was living better than the one that preceded it but you had these huge changes big gains a few times long periods of stagnation 20 years i mean that's a long time to do nothing the answer is that investors behave in very human ways which is they get very excited during bull markets and they look in the rear view mirror and they say i made money last year i'm going to make more money this year so this time i'll borrow you know or or the neighbor says you know i wasn't in last year when that neighbor was dumber than i made a lot of money so i'm going to go in this year so they're always looking in the rearview mirror and when they look in the rearview mirror and they see a lot of money having been made in the last few years they plow in and they just push and push and push on prices and when they look in the rearview mirror and they see no money having been made they just say this is a lousy place to be so they don't care what's going on in the underlying business and it's it's astounding but that's that makes for a huge opportunity just huge opportunity i mean i've lived through roughly half in an investing sense about half that period and i've had that long period of stagnation from 48 i mean from 65 to 82 17 years i wrote an article for forbes in 1979 i just said how can this be pension funds in the in 1970 put a hundred and some percent of their new money in stock because they were wild about stocks then they got a lot cheaper and they put a record low in nine percent of their net new money and in 1978 when stocks were way cheaper people behave very peculiarly in in in terms of their reactions because they they're human beings and they they get excited when others get excited they get greedy when others get greedy they get fearful when others get fearful and they'll continue to do so and you will you know you will see things you won't believe in your lifetime and securities markets and the country will do very well over time but you will see these huge waves and then and if you can stay objective throughout that if you can detach yourself temperamentally from the crowd you get very rich and you won't have to be very bright i mean it i'm sure you are but but uh you want you know it just it doesn't take brains it takes temperament it takes the ability to sit there the best single thing you could have done on march 11 1942 when i bought my first doc was just buy an index fund and and and never look at a headline never think about stocks anymore just like you would do if you bought a farm you just buy the formula let the tenant farmer run it for you and i pointed out that if you put ten thousand dollars in an index fund that reinvested dividends and i paused for a moment to let the audience try and guess how much it amount to and it would come to 51 million dollars now you
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