저자: LarryJones · 외국인
요약 보기
SpaceX 2분기 실적은 매출·EBITDA가 컨센서스를 상회했으나 CapEx 부담과 향후 락업 해제 물량 우려로 주가 하락. AMD는 실적은 대체로 부합했으나 Q3 가이던스 기대에 못 미쳐 하락. 중동 휴전·호르무즈 해협 개방 기대로 나스닥이 급등했고, 발언자는 단기 바운스 후 드로다운 가능성을 언급하며 현금 비중을 늘리고 있다고 밝힘. Tom Lee의 8월 S&P 7,800 전망을 소개하며 연말 8,000 상회 전망에 동의하되 10% 조정 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey, what's up? Good people, welcome back to Stock Up with Larry Jones. We're going to get into AMD, uh, SpaceX earnings as the earnings call is going on right now. I don't know where the price is going to be when you see it, but the forward guidance, especially for SpaceX, is going to be huge. Now, both of these ran up leading to earnings and then, um, cooled off after earnings.
Let's get right into it, okay? Shall we? Uh, let's go right here to this window and then I have a few more things I want to talk about. We're going to start with SpaceX. Now, as we could see, uh, SpaceX return, uh, Q2 results top estimates in first-ever quarterly report, right? And, uh, as you could see here, there are some key things that happened with SpaceX.
Uh, they reported second quarter results on today topping its estimates. So, you think that would be green? Nope. SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of 7.8 billion. That's 7.8 billion versus 6.81 billion, all right? Um, Bloomberg consensus up sequentially for 4.7 billion in Q1. SpaceX posted adjusted EBITDA of 3.5 billion versus 2.0, uh, billion consensus expected, all right?
So, they blew that out. As you can see, right now, it is down by 7% after being up as much as 10% during normal trading hours. Why? Here's the area of concern. Revenue growth accelerated across all business segments and we did deliver strong operating leverage with significant margin expansion led by our new AI compute agents.
The SpaceX CFO said in the earnings release. But, CapEx spend is what's weighing on it. SpaceX said its Q2 capital expenditures, CapEx, came in at 18.37 billion, slightly below its estimate of 18.58 billion. Now, they only spent 7.1 billion on Q1. And so, they have a lot of spend, and again, they're just starting to get some revenue, right?
And uh so, they've been making revenue uh in other ways, okay? But, SpaceX just IPO'd, right? Their Starlink was up 2 million subs in Q2. So, Starlink, which I'm going to be getting because I travel so much, is actually making money. Let's keep it going. We could see at the time it is down by 7.35%.
That is SpaceX, okay? Let's go to AMD. AMD reported Q2 results today, all right? We can see adjusted EPS 1.6, all right, versus 1.62. So, it's the it was supposed to be 1.66, that's what they expected. They came slightly below revenue at 11.54 billion versus 11.31 billion. So, the revenue is up up 50% year-over-year.
Data center revenues, uh you guys see it, right? All right, so let me blow this up for you so you could see it a little better. Here, Q3 revenue forecast expected to be 12.7 billion and 13.3 billion, right? Uh uh 12.51 billion consensus, Q3 gross margin, non-GAAP gross margin projected at roughly 56%.
But, look at what happened to it. Now, it is down 8.67% AMD is down. Now, AMD is down where I could probably do a little nibbling right now, okay? So, what happened today, guys? This is what happened today. You know what? Before we get into that, I want to show you why I'm going to be buying some um SpaceX here soon.
Let's get right into that. Let's do that first. Here's the unlock schedule, guys. You can keep this if you don't have it. This is the unlock schedule where uh the shares will extra shares will be dumped I'm throwing to the market. Uh today is the earnings as we could see right there under that, August 6th.
Uh pre-IPO investors, 20% of holdings, okay? That is when that unlock will be. That's August 6th, okay? Right, so in a few days and then August 21st, employees, okay? September 10th, employees, September 25th, employees, October 10th, employees, October 25th, employees. You could see all of these lockup days, December of 2026, which will be when I buy my biggest um amount of SpaceX.
Full 180-day lockup expires. Everything remaining gets dumped on, all right? And then, June 13th, 2027, Elon Musk entire block is worth 6.4 billion shares. Okay? So, we have a lot of downside coming up. I believe that on these releases, there'll be bounces, right? On these releases, it gets released, people will buy, it'll pop back up, drift back down, release, buy, pop back up.
I just think that's going to be the thing, and I don't think the pop is going to be high. I just think we're going to get these little bounces because people just want to get the SpaceX at the best price. So, here's what happened today as I go through everything. We were trading the spy in Money Moves, and yes, this is the Traffic Trader, our proprietary um um arm here that we have in Money Moves, okay?
Our proprietary indicator, should I say. We were trading this morning. All right? I traded today, which is not normally the day I traded trade, but I did, and I'm glad I was on because the spy absolutely rocketed. Of course, on a smaller time frame, you're going to get more lights, like India any other indicator, but if you go to the 15-minute uh let's go to the 5-minute.
Okay? To go to the 5-minute, you'll see less candles, but she absolutely just mooned straight up. Okay? Straight up, and that was followed by the Qs. Just boom. We hit some consolidation right there for a period uh between Now, this is Central Time, between 9:05 and then uh about 10:00, which is 11:00 Eastern Standard Time, she took off like a rocket.
Why? Why did she take off? Secretary Bessen, Bassin says that there may be a deal Tuesday or Wednesday. Today is Tuesday, all right, to open the Strait of Hormuz with freedom of movement. That's what sent the market skyrocketing. It absolutely sent the market skyrocketing, okay? Let's look at the Nasdaq right quick.
We could see a straight line up. We are on the We're on the day. Look at that. Just beautiful. Another 671 points, 2.6% for the 5-day. We have just been mooning up. I know. I know. I'm going to get to that, right? I know. I know. I know. All right. So, remember on yesterday, let's get right into it.
Remember on yesterday, I was talking about this wedge, how we were coming down on the Nasdaq on this wedge, how uh the S&P was looking bullish. The Nasdaq or the Qs was looking short-term bullish, but long-term bearish, which I am still sticking to, by the way. Uh look, it broke out of this wedge. Look at that.
Just popped up. I'm just on the daily. We broke out of that wedge with a big green candle. Looks like it's trying to get back up to the local high of 27,000. But, I must I must bow down to um this gentleman right here who was right. Mr. Tom Lee, okay? Now, I want you to listen carefully to what he says again.
I'm only going to play a smaller snippet because there was a part we disagreed on. There was a part that we agreed on. And I don't know who's correct just yet, but listen. Now, uh well, you know, I think August is a month to recover what how June and July have been sort of flat months. But earnings have earnings estimates have gone up a lot.
So, the stock market's kind of a coiled spring. And then we had a huge deleveraging as you're talking about because of the AI unwinding Korea's policy makers panicking. So, I I think the markets could actually rebound strongly this month. Like maybe we get to 7,800. This month the 7,800? Yeah, for the S&P.
Is that forecast for the 10% drawdown still intact at the moment? Yes. It is? Yeah, so Can't you take that off the table? Just Will you do it for me? Say it doesn't have to No, kidding. Um, so we get to 7,800 at maybe a 10% drawdown and then close the year above 8,000. Yes. Now, if you look at the S&P, we're at 7,700 already, okay?
And so, uh, Tom Lee, a lot of people didn't hear that part. He still thinks 10% drawdown. I do believe that, uh, there's probably an 8% drawdown. Actually, after today, I I do believe we still have a room for a 10% drawdown. But we are both higher for the end of the year. And so, he says that this month will be a up month.
As it stands for today, he's correct, all right? Um, because of the war and all of this, but be careful because this war, the end of this war, some of that is priced in already because of the taco trade on off on off. Uh, get it? So, remember, like I always say, you got to do your own due diligence.
Anything I say is not a suggestion for you to buy, hold, or sell, but I am cashing up. I am up massively. Um, now between the time that I shared with my money movers where I was when I was up to 32K that day. Tack on what I'm up today over the last since Wednesday, I'm up 51K. Without buying this time, I'm up 51K by not panic selling, all right?
And so, you know, in the past, all of 2025, there was a lot of bearish sentiment, and I was bullish bullish bullish. We always say we're going to trade the market that we're in, but you got to have a plan. My plan hasn't changed. I again, I'm thankful for these green days. I'm thankful to be up another 20 K in just one portfolio, probably 50K all all overall today alone.
I'm thankful for these days, but I still have a plan. Leave me a comment and let me know what your plan is. Listen, we printed money this morning. I had a ton of winners this morning in money moves using this traffic trader and getting this money. And we have a lot of new people that have been paper trading for 30 days, and some of them are stay-at-home moms and are making life-changing money.
We're doing zero DTE, meaning they expire today. We are in and we are out and we move on. Come and join us. I had to make a video today because I know a lot of people are scratching their heads. So, one for Tom Lee. I have him on a lot. Some of you think he's crazy. Truth be told, I listen to what he says, and he's right more often than not, okay?
Now, let's see if this war does come to an end and the straits do open, because if they don't, uh-oh. See you guys later. Live, love, laugh, and learn.
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