Why I Finally Bought Tesla Stock (TSLA Analysis 2019) 🔥

요약 보기

결론: 테슬라를 단기 스윙으로 매수했으며 1~2개월 내 300달러 이상 반등을 예상한다. [포지션] 주당 269.25달러 부근에서 약 5주(약 1,350달러) 매수. 장기 포트폴리오에도 편입할 수 있다고 언급. [근거1: Model Y 선주문] Model Y 공개(3월 14일) 내용은 기대에 부합했고, 저가형 SUV이며 7인승 옵션도 있다. 테슬라 웹사이트 과부하 트윗을 근거로 선주문이 강하다고 봤고, 가격 인상 전 구매 수요도 언급. 시장은 이 트윗을 믿지 않아 주가가 하락했다고 평가. [근거2: 인도량] 직전 분기 약 9만 대, 그 전 분기 약 8만 3,500대 인도. 머스크의 '생산 지옥에서 물류 지옥으로' 발언을 근거로 생산 문제는 해결 중이라 판단. 이번 분기 10만 대 이상 인도를 기대하며, 중국·유럽 인도 확대도 언급. 애널리스트들은 비관적이라 악재가 이미 반영됐다고 주장. [근거3: 차트] 주간 차트 200주 이동평균선과 상승 추세선이 지지선 역할을 해왔고, 최근 이탈 후 재돌파해 매수 신호로 판단. RSI 과매도 구간도 반등 신호로 제시. 지난 랠리 때 일주일 만에 250달러에서 350달러로 오른 변동성도 언급. [리스크·기타] 과거 수익성 우려는 최근 분기 흑자로 해소됐다고 주장. 구체적 손절가는 언급하지 않음. 1년 내 주가 상승 가능성도 제시. [출연자 전망] 단기 목표가 300달러 이상, 1년 내 추가 상승 가능성 언급. 스윙 트레이드 관점이며 장기 보유 여부는 유동적.

다듬은 글

※ AI가 다듬은 글(오탈자·군말 정리)

01. I did it. I recently bought some Tesla stock, and today I'll share exactly how many shares I bought, why I bought them, and what I expect over the next month or two, which I think could send the stock much higher. If you invest in Tesla or are thinking about it, this video may change your investment thesis, so watch it through. I made a deep-dive video on Tesla a few months ago, and it's due for a refresh, so let me know in the comments if you'd like a new one. Comparing how the company looked eight months ago with how it looks now is interesting in itself.

02. Yes, I bought Tesla shares. Earlier this week I picked up about five shares, roughly $1,350 total, at around $269 per share, which I thought was a steal. This is meant as a swing trade. I may or may not hold Tesla in my long-term portfolio as well. There are a few big reasons I think Tesla will rebound to $300-plus per share in the coming weeks.

03. I think this is a big one that the media is downplaying and investors are underestimating. Tesla unveiled the Model Y on March 14, and it was pretty much what we expected, with one nice bonus. It's Tesla's first affordable SUV, or crossover, with a design similar to the Model 3 and some Model X styling, such as the rear and roofline. It offers 300 miles of range, options for very high performance, and features like autonomous driving. The surprise was that it could also be a seven-seat option, which appeals to larger families who want an affordable, fully electric SUV. This is essentially what Tesla needed: an affordable SUV equivalent to the Model 3, and that's what they delivered.

04. The media is trying hard to portray it as a disappointment. I watched the live stream, and the crowd seemed fairly lukewarm, largely because much of the design and features had leaked beforehand. The one surprise that media outlets missed was an image flashed during the presentation that hinted at a Tesla pickup truck, though no details were released.

05. I expect the Model Y to have very impressive pre-order numbers. Tesla tweeted that its website went down due to unusually high volume, which suggests strong orders for the new Model Y and possibly the existing Model 3 and Model X, especially ahead of a small price increase. Some skeptics call this a marketing stunt, but I don't think Tesla would do this just for a short-term stock bump, since it's focused on the long term. Ironically, the market didn't believe the tweet. The stock was flat when it came out and then started selling off after the event, which shows investors have little confidence in what Tesla or Elon Musk says about orders or deliveries. In a nutshell, the first major catalyst that could send Tesla much higher is pre-order numbers coming out much stronger than expected.

06. This differs from orders because it concerns how many cars Tesla actually delivered to customers. Last quarter Tesla delivered around 90,000 vehicles across all models, and the quarter before that it delivered close to 83,500. That's astronomical growth, even compared with a year ago, and it shows Tesla has shifted to a more successful production model, letting it produce and deliver more cars.

07. Elon Musk tweeted a few months ago that they had gone from "production hell" to "delivery logistics hell," implying production issues are under control. He has also been asking employees across the company to help with deliveries this quarter, sending a company-wide email requesting assistance. It's funny that a company worth around $50 billion still acts like a startup, but that startup potential is why so many people are interested in investing in Tesla.

08. Deliveries are still bottlenecked by logistics, and perhaps by a shortage of staff to deliver, but I think Musk and Tesla are trying their hardest to deliver at least 100,000 cars this quarter. Tesla is also now delivering to China and Europe, so there are many more cars to ship. Musk says Europe and China are experiencing the same massive increase in delivery volume that North America saw last year. Analysts aren't optimistic on this point either, which I think presents a good opportunity for retail investors. If Tesla reports more than 100,000 deliveries, I think the stock could rally strongly, because the stock has been beaten down so much that bad news is largely priced in. Analysts see only about 14% upside, but I see much higher prices over the next year or so as these issues are ironed out.

09. Tesla also said the base Model 3 is now available, which should draw buyers who were saving and waiting for a cheaper Model 3 to start placing orders. I don't expect to see many deliveries of these models in the past quarter, but I expect many more in the next quarter and the one after.

10. This reason set me up for a good entry. If you follow my channel, you know I use technical analysis to pick entry points, even for long-term investments. Just because an investment is long-term doesn't mean you should wait indefinitely to buy. Technical analysis helps narrow down when to start buying. When I looked at Tesla's chart before buying, it was a no-brainer, so I bought shares as soon as I saw it.

11. On the weekly chart, Tesla has major support at the 200-day moving average and an uptrend support line. We've tested this level four times, and it has held every time, implying buyers find value there. Zooming in, the stock recently dropped below this level, and buyers stepped in again, pushing it back above. My entry at around $269 was right where the support had briefly turned into resistance. After the stock dropped below and returned to test the level, that was my entry signal. Since then, it has blasted through that level and the 200-day moving average, implying strong buying sentiment at this price. Currently, the stock sits above both levels.

12. I think the chart is set up for reason one, reason two, or both to play out and rally back to $300 or more. When that happens, we'll have to see. But the last big rally Tesla had took it from $250 to $350 per share in a single week, which is extreme volatility. The RSI at the bottom of the chart, which shows whether a stock is oversold or overbought, says Tesla is extremely oversold at these levels. That's another indicator, in my view, pointing to a rally soon.

13. I might already hold Tesla in my long-term portfolio. If you want to see that, check the link below to the VIP group, where members get full access to my portfolio. Honestly, I think Tesla is an incredible company, and at current levels it's very tempting even for long-term investors. The earlier concerns about profitability have largely washed away. Over the last couple of quarters, they've shown they can be profitable when they need to be, which makes me much more confident in the company and inclined to buy even more shares.

14. Let me know in the comments if you're a Tesla investor, or if you're invested in NIO or another competitor. Thanks for watching, and if you want more insight into where the stock was eight months ago compared with now, check out the Tesla deep-dive video linked above.