저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 향후 10년간 큰 고점 형성 가능성을 주장하며 실질 기준 증시 신고점 도달에 회의적이고, 달러 체제 붕괴와 중앙은행 불필요론을 펼친다. 증시 전망: 2000~2001년, 1966년과 유사한 대형 고점 가능성을 언급했다. 다우는 인플레이션 조정 없이는 신고점이 어렵고, 나스닥은 실질 기준으로 본인 생전에 신고점을 보기 어렵다고 봤다. 명목 기준 신고점은 가능하다고 했다. 달러 체제: 미국이 인플레이션을 세계에 수출하고 있으며, 무역적자와 달러 발행으로 타국 생산물을 흡수한다고 주장했다. 제재 등으로 달러를 무기화해 탈달러 움직임이 가속된다고 봤다. 금리와 저축: 인플레이션(예: 8%) 대비 기준금리가 낮으면 실질금리가 마이너스라 저축 유인이 없다고 했다. 연준이 실질 양(+)의 금리를 유지해야 수요가 줄고 저축·투자가 늘어난다고 주장했다. 미국 저축률은 2008년 이후 최저 수준이라고 언급했다. 정책 비판: 유가 상승 시 현금 지원은 가격 상승을 부추긴다고 비판했다. 정부 지출은 결국 증세나 인플레이션으로 국민이 부담한다고 봤다. 중앙은행: 모든 중앙은행(연준 포함) 폐지가 낫다고 주장했다. 금 기반의 민간 화폐 체계(블록체인·인터넷 활용)를 대안으로 제시했다. 금광주: 금광주는 금 레버리지 베팅 성격이며 일부 종목은 50~100배 상승 가능성이 있다고 낙관했다. 단, 마진콜 위험 때문에 레버리지 투자는 권하지 않았다. 최근 금·은 광주 매도는 과도한 레버리지 청산 때문일 수 있다고 봤다. 리스크: 2008년 위기가 현재까지 이어진 배경으로 과도한 레버리지와 연준의 유동성 공급을 지목했다.
다듬은 글
there's a good chance that we have a top for a decade this is the Big Top like the top in 2000 2001 like the top in 1966 you know before that Big Bear market and I think by the time we make a new high in the Dow uh it will only be because of inflation in real terms I probably won't live to see the Dow make a new high certainly the NASDAQ I mean I don't think I'll live to see the NASDAQ make a new high adjusted for inflation I'll probably I'll probably see it make a new high in nominal terms but then you know everything goes up if you have hyperinflation I mean look how high the Zimbabwe stock market went up in Zimbabwe dollars but who cares about Zimbabwe dollars and pretty soon people might be saying who cares about US Dollars it's pretty obvious that this is going to happen the world is hemorrhaging right now from the dollar standard the fact that the dollar has been so strong against the pound against the Euro against the end that is exacerbating their problems we are exporting our inflation to the rest of the world and now they're having to deal with it the problem is we just print money we have these massive trade deficits we're importing all this stuff we're sucking up the goods you know who gets this Vladimir Putin listen to some of his speeches he understands this parasitic relationship that we have with the world where we just print money and we buy stuff we don't have to make the stuff the rest of the world makes this stuff we just create the inflation to pay for it we are spreading Misery all around the world and we are living off the fruits of the rest of the world and the world is like no we don't want to do this anymore there's going to be a revolution uh this system because the winner is the United States the loser is everybody else now you know as an American yeah this was a good deal for us but I know that it's not going to go on forever because the rest of the world is not going to stand for it and we've really pushed them in that direction recently by weaponizing the dollar you know the stuff that were done recently uh you know with sanctions uh on Russia this is just accelerating that process how do you know for sure that positive real rates are needed why wouldn't five percent put downward Flesh on inflation so this is simple the reason you have inflation right governments create money and you have spending you have too much demand well and you don't have enough savings how do you change that well if interest rates are positive if I can earn a real rate of return I'll save my money instead of spending it and that's going to take away demand in the present but it's going to increase Supply in the future why because if I don't spend money if I save that money that money is now available for capital investment so businesses can take my savings and use it to build a factory to make more stuff so the Federal Reserve has to discourage people from borrowing and encourage them to save that's why we need High real interest rates but let's say inflation is eight percent and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to three percent still negative five percent am I going to be incentivized to save money I mean yes losing five percent is not as bad as losing eight percent but who the hell wants to lose five percent if I know I'm going to lose five percent on my savings I Ain't Gonna Save I'm still gonna spend and so if the government is not cutting back on my spending I'm still spending everything and saving nothing they're not going to bend that inflation curve you've got to encourage savings where is savings right now it's the lowest it's been since the 2008 financial crisis Americans are spending everything and in fact what does the government want to do gas prices are up oh we need to give people more money so they can buy those so they can pay higher prices no people have to buy less gas that's what they need to do we can't just give them more money to keep buying it then the price will keep going up so the government is not allowing the free market to do what needs to be done you know we're a lot poorer because the government created all this inflation we've got an enormous government that we've got to pay for and how do we pay for all this government again we don't get it for free we're going to pay for it whether a lower standard of living either we're going to have less money because the government takes our money or we're going to have inflation because the government takes our purchasing power that's it there is no free lunch do you agree that all central banks should be dissolved including the Fed yeah I believe that the world would be better off without any central banks every country would be better off the people would be better off governments like central banks because central banks help governments get bigger and manipulate economies you don't want that you want a free market in a free market you want the government to be as small as possible and you want no artificial manipulation you want free market forces in charge that's how you have an optimal allocation of resources that's how you have the highest Collective standard of living is in a free market and central banks are an enemy of that we don't need central banks in fact we need them now less than ever before as I said we can create our own monetary system based on gold using blockchain using the internet central banks have never been more irrelevant and useless than they are right now we can create a medium exchange unit of accounts store value in the private sector right everything you get from the private sector is better it's it's more efficient it's lower cost the same thing with a monetary system we don't need a government to create a monetary system the free market can do it and then the government can tax us so if we're using gold as money and then the government wants money to spend programs they can tax us and take our gold and then spend it but we don't want to empower governments to just create money out of thin air because that that lets them play Santa Claus people think they get something for nothing they don't and if governments have to tax the people to pay for the things that the people want all of a sudden the people won't want nearly as much stuff as long as they think it's free they want as much as they can get the minute they realize they have to pay for it they don't want it anymore so no no we don't need any central banks we can handle money on our own what are your thoughts on taking out a mortgage to buy the gdxj well look I mean taking out a loan look I have been discouraging people from Leverage because of the possibility of margin calls and being liquidated in fact I think one of the reasons that we might have had such a big sell-off in the gold and silver stocks was because of how much leverage there was people took on debt and and so it's a very dangerous thing so I have just not encouraged people to do that I think there's enough leverage in this trade I think that people are getting the gold stocks are going to make so much money okay can't guarantee that but this is what I believe I mean I think some of these stocks can go up 50 times 100 times so with that kind of upside you don't need leverage don't get greedy don't be a pig right just invest what you have and you'll do fine I think you don't have to try to risk leverage and then potentially get you know you know out of the game you know and then you you don't make anything because you got you got a margin call you couldn't meet it you had to sell your stocks at a ridiculously low price so just just invest what you have and I think the returns will be good enough you know gold mining stocks in and of themselves are leverage bet on gold why does it seem like 2008 so uniquely bad people all over political Spectrum talk about how this is remnant of the global financial crisis people financial crisis didn't seem to have this carryover effect well the reason is because of the amount of Leverage that we have again every time we get into a problem the FED covers up the problem with more monetary heroin and then we have a bigger problem and so we had a massive problem that erupted in 2008
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