저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 달리오는 과잉 부채와 통화 발행으로 인플레이션과 자산 가격 상승이 이어지고, 빈부격차와 정치적 양극화가 내부 갈등·시민 충돌 위험을 키운다고 경고한다. 인플레이션·통화 발행: 부채 위기 시 정부가 돈을 찍고(부채 화폐화), 이는 금융자산과 서비스 가격을 밀어올린다. 생산성 향상 없이 돈과 신용만 늘면 생활수준은 오르지 않는다. 국채 수급: 재무부가 채권을 팔 때 수요가 부족하면 연준이 돈을 찍어 매입하게 되어 인플레 압력이 커진다. 현재 연금 등 채권 보유자는 마이너스 실질수익 상태이며, 자금이 주식·원자재·외국통화 등으로 이동하면 수급이 더 악화된다. 금리·인플레 우려: 달리오는 인플레이션에 대해 '상당히 우려'한다고 밝혔다. 필요한 통화 발행 규모가 크고, 지출하지 않으면 시장 문제가 생긴다는 점을 지적했다. 빈부격차·정치: 하위 60% 인구가 번영에서 소외되고 있으며, 좌우 양극화와 극단주의가 심화되고 있다. 1월 6일 사태를 예로 들며 제도에 대한 신뢰 훼손을 언급했다. 선거 리스크: 2024년 대선에서 어느 쪽도 패배를 인정하지 않을 가능성을 제기했다. 지지자 일부는 상대 정당 구성원의 사망을 바란다는 여론조사 수치를 인용했다. 중국과의 패권 경쟁: 기존 강대국에 도전하는 신흥 강대국(중국) 부상도 과거 제국 붕괴의 주요 패턴 중 하나로 제시했다. 출연자 전망: 생산성 향상과 공정한 부의 분배 없이는 정치적 안정이 어렵다고 보며, 역사적 제국·왕조 연구에 근거해 위기 가능성을 강조했다.
다듬은 글
and you see the same thing happening over and over again when there's a financial problem when the granaries are empty and the coffers are empty they print money and when they print money and the coffers are empty it devalues money and with that when you have a large gap of people at each other's throats then you create a a risk of an internal conflict the risk of some kind of civil war and that is what i think is um is we're at risk of well let me let me clarify um the three things uh that you mentioned are um financial conditions um the production of debt and money uh to monetize those um the internal conflict over wealth and other things politics the greater extremism and then the rise of a great power to challenge an existing great power in the form of china those three things never happened in my lifetime before um but they happened throughout history and one i learned that to be surprised i knew that i needed to study prior periods the reason we anticipated the 2008 financial crisis was because we uh studied the great depression and so to answer your first question about the first of those um i view it just very much mechanically buying power uh which comes in the form of money and credit when that's produced in a quantity which is much greater than the incremental production of goods services and financial assets drives those financial asset prices to go up and the printing of money the monetization of debt is a last phase in a long-term debt cycle because it indicates that when there's a lot of debt and there's um a zero interest rate and you print that money that debt monetization has its effects so what we're seeing now in the market is very very very classic it's happened repeatedly in that that enormous amount of buying power created by the creation of money which doesn't raise living standards that is passing through the system and so you're seeing it happen in the inflation of good services and financial assets that i think everybody has to understand and that brings that's related to the second with the large wealth gaps and and large not enough money in lots of places the federal reserve and the treasury were put into a position of needing to get checks out and there's also this left right conflict issue having to do with the wealth gap and that means that you have fiscal policies that are now requiring lots of spending and so the question is really um are the consequences of not doing that better or worse than the consequences of doing that now when we look from an investor's point of view or an individual's point of view we have to remember that you can't raise living standards by just creating money and credit particularly if you don't raise productivity more than that and that means that those asset prices are going up so we're in the phase of the cycle very classic that the financial asset prices have gone up because you've given them more money that demand is going up and now we're having inflation inflation of those assets so if a lot of that buying power is going to be pulled back particularly as we go into the next year but there's still going to be a lot and there's still going to be a high level of inflation of those types of assets so the trade-off is always the question right okay so quickly where do you come out on that trade-off is it a binary yes or no um it's a it's a reflection of the state of where we are in the cycle that we have borrowed it's all the problems that we've gotten ourselves into by acquiring too much debt and um spending more than we're earning rather than being more productive and also not distributing the opportunities and the incomes in a way that it's a broad base bus prosperity so on the one hand you have um a prosperity that of this bottom 60 percent of the population isn't participating in very much and at the same time you have um so it's creating that polarity and at the same time you have the financial markets so those are trade-offs that um you know different people the only care thing i care about is whether we're productive whether we increase the size of the pie through productivity and then divide it well so that you create the something closer to equal opportunity that produces greater political stability and also draws on the population going live and the reason i say that is because i've studied these empires and these dynasties going back um since the last 500 years yeah i want to get to that um polarization one sec but just quickly on inflation rate how concerned are you about it um i'm significantly concerned about it uh because uh the amount of money and credit that has to be produced and is budgeted um is a large increase and yet if it's not spent it produces its own problems the markets have a sensitivity to that so what what it means and then there's a supply-demand picture for bonds and the way it looks is if you should get the selling of bonds it worsens that supply demand picture because the way it works is the treasury borrows and runs a deficit but it can't produce money so it has to sell bonds and when it sells bonds um if there are not enough buyers of those bonds then the federal reserve got to come in and print money and buy those bonds and the world right now is over um invested in u.s dollar denominated bonds pension funds on the 60 40 mix or and they have negative real returns and cash has a lot of negative real returns so if there was a selling of that and a moving to other assets stocks um other assets um commodities other assets or other places other currencies other real estate and the like that selling worsens the supply-demand picture and then if there's not enough demand that means that the central bank is going to come in and print more money so yes it's not only the potential the inflation that's in the pipeline or projected in that supply-demand balance but it's also what it could be if there's a selling of that instrument so we're printing too much money it's going to produce inflation if that's what you're saying right okay let's go to the second train you identify in declining empires internal unrest you write that wealth inequality often leads to the rise of populism and division how bad have the divisions got in the u.s and what's most to blame for that well i think people around us we all see it january 6th was just a simple um but history has shown when the causes that people are behind are more important to them than the system the system is in jeopardy and what we're seeing is um not a classic uh wealth gap caused by accompanied by political gaps so you're seeing um that the left is more left and the right is more right and you're seeing the conflicts within the parties in the primary elections you're going to see in each party a competition between the moderates and the more extremes and so you're seeing that dynamic uh play out you're seeing questioning of election results and questioning of of rules that so you're getting to the point something like 15 percent of um i forgot whether it was democrats or republicans uh wish the other member of the party would die and uh 10 of the other party wish they would die they don't want their children to marry other members of the party so there's a question of even how um rules will be followed and so there's going to be a conflict and i think it's not an exaggeration to say that you could see in the 2024 elections that no side will lose that and accept loss and you're seeing the movement to different states related to different values these types of things have never happened before but in my book in my study that i did to understand them over time they happen repeatedly through history
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