저자: LiLu · 외국인
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결론: 이 영상은 Li Lu의 투자 철학(가치투자, 역량 범위 확장, 소유자 관점)을 설명하며 종목별 가격 예측은 없다. 투자 철학: Li Lu는 28년간 철학이 바뀌지 않았고, 역량 범위(circle of competence)만 확장됐다고 말한다. 초기엔 벤저민 그레이엄식 담배꽁초 투자, 이후 소형주·틈새 산업, 대형 기술주로 넓혔다. 좋은 기업 기준: 경쟁자를 막는 지속 가능한 해자(moat), 높은 투하자본이익률, 장기 성장 여력이 있는 기업을 찾는다. 기업 규모·산업은 무관하며 내재가치보다 할인된 가격에 사는 것이 필수다. 해자 관점: 해자는 경영진의 자본배분 능력에서 나온다고 보며, 버크셔의 사례를 든다. 핵심 원칙 1 (소유자 관점): 주식을 보유하면 회사를 소유한 것이므로, 주가 등락이 아닌 사업 자체에 집중해야 한다. 주가가 50% 폭락해도 깊이 아는 사업이면 더 살 수 있다. 핵심 원칙 2 (인간의 비합리성): 5~10년마다 백년 만의 위기가 오고, 탐욕과 공포로 투자자가 잘못된 시점에 잘못된 행동을 한다. 사업을 잘 알면 시장에 흔들리지 않는다. 핵심 원칙 3 (제너럴리스트와 스페셜리스트): 시장과 메가트렌드는 넓게 배우되, 개별 사업과 틈새를 볼 때는 전문가처럼 깊이 파고들어야 한다. 다음 편: 중국 투자 관점은 2부에서 다룬다.
다듬은 글
hello investors and welcome to my YouTube channel where I study the best investors and businesses from around the world this week we'll learn from Lee Lou Who has dubbed the title of the Warren Buffett of China he has a relationship with both Charlie and Warren and every Tuesday evening he has a phone chat with Charlie Munger because Munger allowed lilu to invest for him through the Daily Journal and he's said to be the one who found byd for Berkshire Hathaway he's the one that likely told Charlie Munger to invest recently in Alibaba and he doesn't speak often so when he speaks it's really important to listen since this is a long video I won't be breaking up this video into four parts here are the topics that we will discuss in all of the videos this video will cover the first part number one his investment philosophy number two investing in China and then a little bit about his thoughts on number three his thoughts on new technologies and also number four his thoughts on the three key things that you need to have if you want to become a value investor if you like Warren Buffett lilu Charlie Munger and value investing please click on the like button for this channel support and consider subscribing I'll also leave the link to this entire video in the description below the first topic we'll discuss is his investment philosophy how lilu's investment philosophy changed over 28 years the answer is very simple it didn't he said that the only thing that changed is his circle of competence expanded compared to the gram style cigar butt investing when he started as a value investor he was a Benjamin Graham cigar butt type of investor he was really finding value in numbers then he expanded onto smaller businesses into smaller niches that he could understand then he went to bigger businesses technology so the more you expand your circle of competence and your knowledge the easier it is to find Value Investments he was looking for great businesses with competitive durable modes and long investment runways that will do really well let's take a look at his thoughts on how the value investing has changed over the years this of course led to the second question which is what kind of businesses are we looking at as value investors this is what Lilo looks at for Value investor long-term durable mode which can fend off new competitors High return on investment capital and a long runway for growth businesses can come in all sizes forms Industries and so that you have to study businesses from all angles and must also be able to buy it with a discount to intrinsic value a good business with a strong moat is needed but the key is a high return on invested Capital such that Capital invested into the business can yield a high return which can then be reinvested into the business growth or into another profitable business this is what Warren Buffett always talks about businesses that can keep compounding returns over the long term such businesses come in all sizes and in all Industries so you don't just have to find the businesses and the numbers you also need to understand both the business and the industry as Warren Buffett and Lulu say you only need a few of those businesses in your life to really do well also the key here is patience you need to wait for the right place in order to buy businesses below intrinsic value there are always crises or situations that allow you to buy businesses below their intrinsic value moats let's go deeper on moats Lulu says that emote is created by a Management's capacity of allocating Capital Warren Buffett turned Berkshire the textile firm into what Berkshire is now because of his investment in modes and his great strength is capital allocation so when you have management that knows when and where to put Capital to work for good return on investment Capital that's a big moat and for lilu it's really what makes a business great the next question that he was asked was and what other ways do you do things differently from most other value investors here lilu talks about his three core investing factors number one looking at businesses that are already successful so you don't mess with a businesses that are not doing well which makes it much easier to invest number two being intellectually honest with yourself and to know your circle of confidence number three you need to know a business in and out in order to be able to predict outcomes for the next 10 years and predict the next two years of business with a 90 degree of certainty keep in mind that most times you can't so you keep learning until you can there are three principles that lilu covers the first is called the ownership perspective one of his core principles is that if you own a stock you own the company this is what he calls having an ownership perspective the first principle ownership perspective if you own you think differently this is perhaps the most important lesson that Lilo had learned as a young investor leelu focuses on knowing knowledge and knowing things so well so detailed that you can predict the business over the next two years he says that from his personal experience that is possible he said the more I look into a company the more I'm able to see the trends the cyclicality there and understanding so value investing and investing is really about knowing more and more this goes back to his two great insights number one that he has to know more about the businesses more so than anyone else and number two is to have an owner's mentality when you think a little bit about how everyone is so focused on the stock prices going up and down but you see when you focus on stock prices you don't have the right investing mentality because you're not focusing on ownership Lulu says if you were given a business that has no stocks that you own 100 percent what do you do you start learning about the business understanding the business you see the competitors see what can happen and then you become a real business analyst and investor but to have the right mentality you have to think that you own 100 of the business only a long-term ownership mentality where you know the business very well allows you to buy more of it when the stock crashes 50 percent he says that in today's market you should invest in a business that can do good through thick and thin lilu says something different when everybody says this time is different these are the three most dangerous words in investing lilu says every time it is different and that's something very peculiar in today's markets we are in Uncharted territories you never know what can happen but if you want to do well as an investor you have to find businesses that will do well through thick and thin that's it and then it makes investing simple the second principle that he discusses is human irrationality and how it can stray away from that the second principle human irrationality the more you know the less the market will mess with you when it comes to crises and human irrationality he says this every five to ten years we have a once in a century crisis human behavior will never change because it's driven by Greed for easy money and Good Times based on incomplete pictures of the environment so when things get rough all the bad things surface people panic and due to the complicated irrational relationship with money people have they usually do the wrong thing at the wrong Moment In Time because I don't think that investors understand the real principles of investing and the real things that they're doing but they are attracted by greedy money and when that incomplete picture turns around all of those investors then they start to panic and then they start to do irrational things because when you start losing money you make decisions differently and that's normal human behavior in a cycle that only by knowledge we can solve and as he says financial markets actually amplify human instincts the way to deal with your instincts is to find businesses that will do well no matter the environment and know the business extremely well to quote lilu if you just pretend you know a business well you will be tested in difficult times the third principle generalist or specialist do both he says that if you want to be a true specialist in the company you chose to really invest in you want to be a generalist always a business in general so that your core competence or your circle of competence is constantly evolving and enlarging over time he says be generalist in learning of the markets and of the mega Trends but be a specialist when you start looking at the business and the niche the business is operating thank you so much for watching and if you like this video please share it with your friends and family it'll help this channel a lot these videos take a really long time to research and make so please leave a comment in the comment section and like this video stay tuned for part two of lilo's investing thoughts on China
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