저자: 미상 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 하워드 막스의 '시장 사이클 마스터하기'를 소개하며, 단기 시장은 감정(탐욕·공포)에 따른 사이클을 보이고 장기적으로는 성장 추세를 따르므로 투자자는 사이클 내 위치를 파악해 역행해야 한다는 교육 영상이다. [핵심 주제 1: 금융 흐름에 역행하는 이유] 투자자는 장기 예측을 정확히 하기 어렵고, 다른 투자자와 같은 정보를 보므로 장기 예측 정확도는 비슷하다. 따라서 장기 예측보다 '알 수 있는 것(knowable)', 즉 자산의 실제 가치와 가격 비교에 기반한 단기 판단이 낫다. 가격이 실제 가치보다 낮을 때 매수하고 가치 상승을 기다리는 것이 기본 원칙이다. 예시로 부채 디폴트로 개발이 중단된 부동산을 자재 가치 이하로 매수하는 경우를 든다. [핵심 주제 2: 붐-버스트 사이클의 작동 방식] 사이클은 반복되는 패턴이며 자연 사이클처럼 정확히 예측되지는 않는다. 과열 후에는 거의 확실히 붕괴가 오지만 시점과 강도는 예측 불가하다는 것이 저자의 입장이다. 닷컴 버블(1995~2002)을 예로 들며, 벤처캐피털 투자가 2000년 정점 후 급락했고 이후 장기 성장 추세로 회복했다고 설명한다. 대부분의 시장은 장기 성장률(secular growth rate)을 따르며, 단기로는 그 주변에서 진동한다. [핵심 주제 3: 사이클이 발생하는 이유] 단기 시장 등락의 주요 원인은 탐욕에 의한 도취와 공포에 의한 절망 사이의 감정 변동이다. 호황기에는 투자자들이 추세가 무한히 지속될 것이라 믿고, 붕괴기에는 공포로 매도가 확산된다. 아이작 뉴턴이 1720년 남해회사 버블에서 한 번 매도 후 고점에 재매수해 큰 손실을 본 사례를 든다. 탐욕이 지배할 때는 군중 심리에 저항하고, 공포가 지배할 때는 절망 매도에 저항해야 한다. 위험은 투자가 안전하다고 여겨질 때 높고, 고위험이라고 여겨질 때 오히려 낮다. [장기 추세] 미국 GDP 성장은 노동시간 증가(인구·출생률)와 생산성 향상(기술)에 의해 결정되며 장기 평균 약 2~3%다. 전쟁·경제 침체·출생률 하락 등으로 장기 침체도 가능하므로 낙관적인 미래에만 의존하는 것은 위험하다. [결론] 우수한 투자자는 단기 사이클을 인지하고 포트폴리오 위치를 조정한다. 영상 진행자는 시청자에게 독서(역사서, 소설 포함)를 권한다. [출연자 전망] 영상 내 구체적인 종목·지수 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 시장 전반에 대해서는 과열 시 붕괴 가능성, 공포 시 기회 가능성이라는 일반론적 입장만 제시.
다듬은 글
and this week's video we'll go over the book mastering the market cycle by Howard marks we will be taking a look at these three key topics number one why investors should go against the financial tide number two how the boom bust Cycle Works in practice number three why does this boom bust cycle occur imagine you're a successful Financial investor with your own Capital management firm and more than 40 years in the market what are the most common questions you'd expect your clients to ask you the most common questions are about the market Cycles clients want to know how to position themselves within the current market cycle where they stand within it and how it will play out more than anything else is the market performing well with prices rising or is it underperforming with prices falling to today's video will attempt to answer such questions Cycles whether in a particular Market or an entire economy are the linchpin of superior investment performance they are often underappreciated and understood by the end of this video you should have a better understanding of how they work and be that much closer to becoming a superior investor for our first topic today we will take a look at why investors should go against the financial time let's begin with a simple question what exactly is an investor well there's someone whose job it is to invest in a variety of assets to make up a portfolio which they hope will appreciate in value over time how do they determine which Investments are likely to grow in value despite the fact that some guesses are more likely to be correct than others an investor can never be certain of the outcome of an investment all that they can do now is practice the art of making educated guesses but mastering this art is no simple task to begin with it's merely impossible to forecast the long term with greater accuracy than other investors they are likely to be aware of impending large-scale economic geopolitical or Market related events such as Wars stock market crashes or the introduction of new technologies just as you are why because you and they are most likely reading the same articles and analyzing the same data their predictions about the future events will most likely be as accurate as yours so don't bother with long-term forecasting it's far better to focus on what the offer refers to as the knowable and make short-term predictions based on that knowledge the knowable is all the information you can gather about an asset's True Value if you're thinking about investing in a company for example you should look at the real value of its assets and compare it to the price of the share at that company you may be looking at a good investment if the price undervalues the real value so the goal is straightforward you want to buy assets when they're cheap and wait for Market developments to raise their value consider the case where the real estate market has collapsed and developers have been forced to abandon their construction projects due to debt default you might be able to snag Up structures whose materials alone are worth more than the price you're paying obviously doing so will increase the likelihood of your portfolio increasing in value in the future some investors believe that buying low and selling high is all there is to it however the superior investor should and frequently does consider a third Factor Financial Cycles so what exactly is a cycle Howard marks defines it as a pattern that repeats itself Cycles abound in the natural world for example day turns into night which turns in today summer gives way to autumn autumn to Winter and winter in turn gives way to Spring fortunately for us these natural cycles repeat themselves so frequently that we can plan our lives around them with such certainty that we can position ourselves advantageously within them the cycles that markets and economies follow aren't nearly as predictable as the sun setting or the seasons changing that isn't to say that they don't exist consider what would happen if the Earth didn't orbit the Sun at a predictable rate its orbit would speed up and slow down at random intervals and while it would always complete its orbit there would be no way of knowing when day would turn in tonight or vice Versa Market Cycles work in a similar way it's impossible to predict when a positive Market upturn will turn into a negative Market downturn in the long run the pattern may be clear but there is a lot of variation in the short term as a result we can't talk about economic or Market Cycles in terms of certainty we can however talk about them in terms of Tendencies a tendency is anything that an informed investor believes is likely to happen as well as their calculations about How likely it is after a market boom when prices have risen to unsustainable levels and investor optimism is an all-time high there will Mo there will almost certainly be a bust when prices fall precipitously and investors become fearful and depressed when that bust will occur and how severe it will be are completely unpredictable but that doesn't rule out the possibility of positioning an Investor's portfolio to anticipate the bust in the event of a bubble secondly we will take a look at how the boom bust Cycle Works in practice so how do Market Cycles usually behave we can say of financial cyclicality what Mark Twain said of History it doesn't repeat itself but it Rhymes to put it another way no two cycles are identical but they all tend to follow the same repetitive pattern this pattern is perhaps best illustrated by using an extreme example the.com bubble and subsequent Crash from 1995 to 2002 uh boom bust cycle fueled in large part by Venture capitalists and experience the popularity of the internet in the United States skyrocketed in the mid-1990s heralding a slew of new business opportunities Venture capitalists quickly began investing in online businesses which sprang up like mushrooms despite the fact that the majority of them had little chance of becoming profitable stocks Rose to unprecedented ties as a result of the frenzy with Venture Capital funds reporting triple digit returns this attracted even more funding and before long there were far too many online businesses there was a bubble forming the majority of these businesses were doomed to fail many Venture Capital investors lost their entire investment and stock prices plummeted if you graft this event it would look like a cathedral Spire with a sharp increase in the venture capital investment starting in 1999 peaking in 2000 and then sharply decreasing later that year venture capital investment on the other hand has recovered to a large extent since then indeed a graph shows that it has climbed back up to half of its previous height of 2000 in other words the Venture Capital Market has grown on average over the last 20 years but there have been wild swings in the short term with prices peaking in 2000 and dipping into a valley in 2002 in general almost all markets economies and companies follow this pattern albeit on a less extreme scale they grow gradually and on average this average growth rate is known as secular growth rate which with secular referring to the fact that it has lasted for a long time growth on the other hand oscillates up and down around this secular Trend in the short term this leads us on to our final topic why does this occur emotional extremes are uncommon in day-to-day life we all have bad days and good days but most people don't experience unbridled Euphoria and bottomless despair on a regular basis so it may come as a surprise that human emotion specifically a fluctuation between Euphoria driven greed and despair-driven fear is one of the main causes of short-term Market ups and downs this is how it goes investors become delusional during periods of significant growth such as the one spurned by Venture Capital between 1995 and 2000 they believe that the expansion will continue indefinitely they tend to ignore the peak and Valley pattern of previous Cycles either because they are too young to remember previous Cycles or because they're too confident in the potential of a new market they euphorically claim that this time will be different this Euphoria then spreads causing other investors to jump on board even though prices have already surpassed the reasonable amount represented by the secular Trend investors continue to participate either because they're afraid of missing out on a boom or because they're unaware of the risk of a bust then eventually fear begins to take hold investors recognize that prices may have risen too high and will likely Fall in the near future they start selling lowering prices and causing other investors to lose Faith until everyone is selling and prices fall below the secular trend it's difficult to avoid the herd mentality that a booming Market induces even Isaac Newton widely regarded as one of History's Greatest Geniuses couldn't do it Newton was serving as England's Master of the mint in January 1720 so he wasn't unfamiliar with Finance the south sea Company's stock was worth 128 pounds at the time however the price began to rise after that Newton wisely sold his 7 000 pounds worth of stock when he realized the rise was being fueled by speculative Investments the impending cycle had been correctly predicted by him stock prices soared to 1050 in June before plummeting to be less than 200 by September but here's the thing there is a catch Newton couldn't seem to keep his word after seeing his peers make ridiculous amounts of money he repurchased his stocks at the peak only to lose everything more than twenty thousand pounds in the subsequent crash what is the takeaway here when euphoric greed Reigns Supreme it pays to resist the herd mentality that emerges but it's just as important to fight despair-fueled fear countless investors watch the news every day paying close attention to the ups and downs of this or that market however few of them pay enough attention to what the data they gather says about their position in the current investment climate the superior investor on the other hand devotes his full attention to these matters this is completely reasonable after all when investors are euphoric and greedy they lose faith and risk and continue to buy even when prices have reached absurdly high levels and the risk of a crash has increased dramatically Returns on risky Investments are also at a minimum during Market upswings because everyone is ecstatically buying sellers can demand high prices and offer pitiful risk premiums increasing the risk of a loss even more so proceed with caution if you hear things like the market can't fail and this time it's different on the other hand when investors are depressed and fearful such as after a market crash or slump risk is at its lowest all of the investors all of the investors who have lost money will be cautiously standing on the sidelines believing that the market has entered and inexorable downward spiral however risk premiums and the likelihood of a market upswing are at the highest at this point in a nutshell it's riskier to invest when investing is widely considered to be risk-free and it's also riskier to invest when investing is widely considered to be high risk you should now have a basic understanding of short-term Market cycles and the advantages of paying attention to your position within them but what about long-term secular Trend couldn't you just invest and let your money sit there if the secular growth rate is always positive allowing the short-term Cycles to cancel each other out while you profit from the secular Trends gradual growth the thing is the secular Trend goes through Cycles as well though they take a lot longer to play out when you look at the long-term Trend in the United States gross domestic product or GDP this becomes clear multiplying the number of hours worked in a country by the value of each hour's output is one way to calculate GDP this means that a country can increase its GDP in one of two ways by increasing the number of hours worked or by increasing the productivity per hour the most obvious way to increase the number of hours worked in a country is to increase the number of workers and indeed population growth is linked to increased GDP the birth rate in the United States for example increased dramatically after World War II a phenomenon known as the baby boom when the children born between the late 1940s and the early 1960s reached working age the U.S economy experienced significant growth simply because there were more people working economic growth resulted from the increase in working hours the second long-term way to boost GDP is to increase productivity per hour which is dependent on technology for example between the late 1700s and the early 1800s Steam and water powered machines began to replace human workers in certain Fields allowing them to perform their jobs more efficiently meanwhile work that had previously been done slowly in small shops began to be completed at Breakneck speed in large factories as a result the economy has grown GDB in the United States grows at a rate of two to three percent per year but keep in mind that this is the average rate of growth it doesn't rule out the possibility of long-term economic downturns from which the economy could take years if not decades to recover birth rates can drop for a variety of reasons including Wars unfavorable economic conditions and social trends like Young Americans current productivity to put off starting a family in the long run the resulting Workforce reduction could lead to a broad economic downturn in short relying on bright future days that may never arrive is risky as a result the superior investor is always aware of short-term cycles and adjusts his position accordingly this brings us to the conclusion of today's video the cycles of markets economies and individual companies allow a particular pattern in the long term they tend to grow following what's called a secular Trend however they fluctuate a lot in the short term oscillating around this secular Trend the superior investor is one who is aware of these cycles and adjusts his stance and portfolio positioning to take advantage of them so my advice to you the yearly investor is read read read and read some more in the financial World many people are still trapped in a bubble they only pay attention to news and financial reports and they rarely read books that are not related to their field reading history books or even novels can teach you a lot about Cycles consider the massive cycle that the Roman Empire went through so don't limit yourself to a single genre and keep an eye out for lessons that can be applied to investing in life thank you for watching this video entirely to the end nothing helps me out more than y'all sticking it out to the end please consider subscribing to my channel if you haven't already done so also if you enjoyed this video please like this video And subscribe to my channel so that I can continue to make videos like this for you to enjoy
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