Legendary investor Howard Marks on markets, economy and carried interest

요약 보기

결론: 시장과 경제의 향방은 예측할 수 없으므로 특별한 역발상 베팅보다 평소 방식(위험 대비 충분한 수익이 기대되는 자산 매수)을 유지해야 한다. 시장 전망: 마크스는 경기 침체 시점, 연준의 행보, 경제의 방향을 정확히 알기 어렵다고 밝혔다. 현재 위험과 기회는 정상 범위이며 오크트리는 과도하게 공격적이거나 방어적이지 않은 평소 방식으로 운용 중이다. 중국: 개별 종목에 대한 의견은 없고 주로 신용시장을 통해 중국에 투자한다. 투자 불가능하다고 여겨지는 자산에서 바겐세일을 찾는 것이 좋다는 일반 원칙을 언급했으며, 모든 기피 자산을 사야 한다는 뜻은 아니라고 선을 그었다. 스팩(SPAC): 대표적으로 외면받는 범주로 언급하며, 주식 투자자라면 그 더미를 살펴볼 것 같다고 답했다. 이는 조건부 관심 표명이다. 세금: 성과보수(캐리드 인터레스트)에 대해 자본이득 세율 적용은 장기간 본인 돈을 투자해 얻은 이익에 해당하며, 타인 자금을 운용해 얻는 보수는 그렇지 않다고 보아 자본이득 적용에 동의하지 않는 견해를 밝혔다. 요약 평가: 특정 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 예측 발언은 없었으며, 대부분 중립·관망 성격이다.

다듬은 글

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01. our next guest stresses the importance of standing apart from the investing crowd and joining us right now right now in an exclusive interview to discuss his latest memo it's titled i beg to differ is legendary investor howard marks he's the co-chairman at oak tree capital management howard it's great to see you uh we've all been trying to make sense of what has been a crazy market um with seems to be a very difficult economy to project where we're headed you've always sort of had a contrarian view about everything so what are you thinking about right now in terms of where we actually are well my main contrarian view is that unlike so many others i don't know where we're going uh i don't it's hard to know precisely what the economy is going to do what the fed will do what uh what recession that will bring on and uh you know uh when there's nothing clever to do just don't try to be clever i think i think we're in normal territory in terms of risks and opportunities and and uh oak tree is uh operating in its normal fashion neither uh exceedingly aggressive or exceedingly defensive so when you say that you don't know what to do or and what are you supposed to do when you don't know what to do i think you do what you normally do which is you you you buy things that appear attractive in terms of uh a return that ex that more than compensates for the risk that's what we always do and sometimes we get much more aggressive and sometimes we get more much more defensive and this is neither of those times one of your more contrarian views has been to get bullish i think at least individually on certain stocks in china given how unloved uh that part of the world has been what do you make of uh what's happening right now uh between china and taiwan we were talking about this news even just in the last 24 hours around nancy pelosi's trip uh there's obviously so many stocks that are on list to get de-listed do they still look like good deals to you now well we operate in china mainly through the credit markets so i don't have opinions on on individual stocks but you know i've made my career based on things other people wouldn't do um today china is described as uninvestable uh 45 years ago high-yield bonds were described as uninvestable uh i think that the bargains at any moment are are best found on the uninvestable pile uh although that's different andrew from saying that everything on that pile is is what you should buy but i think that uh a great place to look for bargains is on the pile of things other people won't touch because they by definition uh their prices embody no optimism so i'm thinking right now uh spax for example completely an unloved category would you start to look through that pile uh if if i were a stock investor i probably would yes um one of the other big topics that we've been focused on just again in the last 24 hours big headline christian cinema as you probably saw seems to be pushing ahead with the inflation reduction act but as part of that removing this provision which would have closed what a lot of people describe as a loophole around carried interest what do you think of that um i think that carried interest for the benefit of the of the audience means paying long-term capital gains rate taxes on the profits that money managers enjoy uh from operating funds uh my personal belief is that um carried interest that capital gains is what you get when you invest your money and make a profit over the long term uh i don't think it's uh it's what you get when you invest other people's money over the long term so i'm not one who bangs the table that that that the money we make for making profits for our investors is is a capital gain