저자: ChipStockInvestor채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC 실적 발표를 근거로 2025년 반도체 업황을 긍정적으로 전망. 2024년 매출 약 30% 증가, 2025년 중반 20%대 성장 전망. HPC 비중 51%, HPC 성장률 58%. AI 가속기 사업 2025년 두 배 성장 예상. 2025년 CapEx 380~420억 달러로 증가 예상, 이는 Fab Five(ASML, 어플라이드머티리얼즈, 램리서치, 도쿄일렉트론, KLA) 수혜로 연결. 엔비디아 Blackwell 주문 감소 루머는 부인.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, welcome back to Chip Stock Investor roadshow edition. TSM just reported and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is it's a great proxy for kind of the overall health of the semiconductor industry. And so it's always nice when they report because it kind of gives us a sneak peek into incoming earnings over the next quarter.
TSMC fits into the chip fab and contract manufacturer portion of the semiconductor industry. TsMC is the largest of the contract manufacturers, and they make chips for all parts of the industry, including companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom. And speaking of NVIDIA and Broadcom, TSMC's fantastic 30 percent year over year revenue increase for full year 2024 was of course a great indicator for health of NVIDIA and broadcom, among other companies.
But TSMC's CEO also talked about the 2025 outlook and they expect revenue to increase close to a mid 20 percent rate in 2025 over 2024. So as Casey said, this continues to be a great indicator of the overall health, especially the new semiconductor leaders like NVIDIA and Broadcom. Really, really good stuff in this Q4 update.
Here's the revenue breakdown for TSMC. High performance compute that's the red portion of that pie chart, made up 51 percent of their overall revenue in 2024, some of the other segments, smartphone, IOT, automotive, all coming in at a fraction of HPC. Over on the right TSMC breaks down the growth rate by platform.
HPC or high performance compute saw 58 percent year over year growth rate. Can that continue? Notice a comment made by the CEO C.C. Wei. So AI accelerators from companies like NVIDIA and then Broadcoms, ASICs, think like Google's tensor processing units for Google cloud. TSMC said that even after the AI accelerator business tripled in 2024, they actually see that AI accelerator business, which is within the HPC segment, doubling once again in 2025.
So Kasey, we've been showing this chart quite a bit now, especially the last six months, and we continue to see this accelerated computing and AI infrastructure market in the early stages or max growth mode, at some point, we are going to hit our first cycle peak for accelerated computing and AI infrastructure, but we still see real no sign that we are reaching that initial peak in growth.
So again, really good stuff for TSMC, indicating a fantastic year is likely in the makings for Nvidia and Broadcom. And of course, all these other end markets, consumer, cloud and enterprise, that excludes accelerated computing. And of course, auto and industrial, which had a terrible 2024, it still appears that we will see some gradual incremental improvement in those end markets in 2025, which is good news for TSMC and of course, the rest of the semiconductor companies that rely on TSMC's leading edge manufacturing.
We're going to talk a little bit about TSMC's capEx and how that's going to affect them in 2025 with the help of our friends and today's sponsor FinChat. io. They helped us make this chart as well as almost all of the charts you see from us here at Chip Stock Investor. Yeah, this particular chart, part of their charting tool where you can break down different financial metrics of a business, different reporting segments of a business, if you need to get a better overview of how a company makes money.
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That's fin chat. io forward slash CSI. 15 percent off any paid plan using that link, check it out in the description below. Over the last few quarters, especially in 2024, TSMC has increased revenue significantly, but their CapEx has continued to really decline. And it stayed down for quite some time.
We have suggested in past videos that something has to give here. TSMC is revenue increase is going to have to be backed up at some point by some spend on probably manufacturing equipment. Yeah, there's only so much reshuffling of existing equipment that can take place, so especially as that AI and accelerated compute business continues to ramp up, yet money's going to need to be spent, we'll get to how that is going to benefit the manufacturing equipment suppliers here in just a moment, but let's first address the question if TSMC increases its CapEx on new manufacturing capacity in 2025, where is that money going to come from to support the company's profit margins?
Here's a slide from TSMC's financial highlights in the last year. This is operating margin expansion at its finest, folks. Operating margin up to nearly 46 percent last year, over three percentage point increase over 2023. That led to a massive increase in free cashflow, almost 200 percent year over year increase, and a lot of that is just simply because as you said, Kasey, the CapEx spend was down significantly from past years in 2024, held basically flat with where it was at in 2023.
So if they're going to ramp up their CapEx spend in 2025, this is where TSMC will be able to pull that money from and all the while continue to shell out some great profitability for shareholders. In Q4, fiscal year 2024, capital expenditures did start to ramp up, and even while that happened, free cash flow was also up quarter over quarter.
CapEx to revenue of 42% in Q4. For 2025 the CFO Wendell Huang explained that they do expect an increase in capex. In 2024, it was nearly 30 billion, but in 2025, they expect it to be between 38 to 42 billion. About 70 percent of that budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, 10 to 20 percent in specialty technologies and 10 to 20 percent in advanced packaging, testing, mask making, and other things like that.
What does that mean exactly? Well, it means a couple of things. Let's break down just a couple of them that was in the Q and A section. We don't have the first quote here, it didn't fit on the slide, but the first, first one we wanted to highlight was a question about the hyperscaler spending on accelerated computing infrastructure.
And management reassured analysts that as far as they can tell, the hyperscalers still need a lot of accelerated computing infrastructure in 2025 and beyond. So those orders aren't drying up anytime soon. Second quote, Kasey was regarding some more rumors as of late regarding NVIDIA, seeing decreased orders for Blackwell systems.
TSMC's CEO did not allow this to go any further. He said, there's a lot of rumor. I assure you, we're working very hard to meet the requirements of the customer's demand. I say that we are working very hard to increase the capacity. So he tried to nip this in the bud and very clearly state that this is not a concern for them.
He continued to say that advanced packaging accounted for 8 percent of the revenue last year, and it's going to account for 10 percent this upcoming year. Yeah, that's significant, as accelerated computing has really changed the entire way systems are architected for, especially the data center. So TSMC making this big push into advanced packaging, various, various technology surrounding advanced packaging.
And so we promised we would talk about what this means for the fab five. There has been a lot of worry that especially top customers for the fab five, like Intel and all of their woes, not having enough cash to spend on upgrading their fabs, not getting enough orders to support increasing the fabs further, like they need to do.
Micron, still not spending a lot of capex yet, although that's about to change in 2025 as well. All of this is to say you add TSMC into the mix, they are aggressively ramping up their spend and we continue to say the Fab Five, ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron and KLA Corp are probably going to have a resumption of growth in this next year.
Taiwan Semi Manufacturing is not in our portfolio, but we did call it out as a bonus pick of 2024, and we hold with that in 2025. But our holdings in our portfolio, NVIDIA, Broadcom, as well as four of the fab five, we feel like are going to be benefiting very much in 2025. And then we'll just add another pick here Onto Innovation, which entered our top seven chip stock holdings last year.
We have high hopes for that one. Check us out on Semiconductor Insider, that's our monthly membership for just 10 bucks a month, where we talk about our portfolio, things that we're buying and selling and most importantly, the why behind it. Check it out and join our community. Lot of really great investors over there helping us cut through the noise and make great long term investing decisions.
Thanks for watching this episode. As we mentioned at the beginning, TSM is just one of the first of many earnings to come your way. So sub to the channel, like this video, share with your friends, and we'll see you all again soon at Chip Stock Investor.
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