저자: Kasey&Nick · 외국인
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TSMC는 Q2 2025 매출 약 320억달러로 고수익성을 보이며, HPC(60%)·AI 가속 컴퓨팅 중심으로 성장 중. 3나노(N3) 램프업과 첨단 패키징 수요가 성장 동력이며, 스마트폰·IoT 등 타 부문도 회복세. CapEx 100억달러 증가에도 잉여현금흐름 68억달러 양수, 순현금 약 600억달러. Q3 2025 가이던스는 318~330억달러(전년비 37~38% 상단), 달러 약세가 마진에 부담. 액침냉각 등 신규 연구도 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone. Welcome back to Chip Stock Investor, it's Kasey and Nick. Hey, so in our last video on ASML Q2, 2025, I said that a new ASML high NA EUV machine cost 300 to 400,000 euro. Now, that's the first time that you've said that it's 300 to 400,000 versus the 300 to 400 million that it actually is.
And I was thinking it must just be a clearance sale. And Kasey went shopping. She's ordered one and Chip Stock investors is getting into manufacturing. Yeah, but now that I have been corrected once again, and it's actually 300 to 400 million, I feel like I probably should cancel that order, because I have nowhere to put anything that big.
One of the biggest reasons, one of the reasons. Anyway, cancel that order. It's not 300 to 400,000, We know that, sorry for the misspeak. But we are going to continue with that conversation from last week talking less about the actual equipment and more about one of ASML's biggest, most important customers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing or ticker symbol TSM. It fits into that chip fabs and contract manufacturer right in the center of the semiconductor industry flow. And we still hold to the belief that this is one of the best stocks that you can invest in. If you just want broad based coverage of the entire semiconductor supply chain.
The company is highly profitable and you get lots of built-in exposure to future developments in the industry as well. Like for example, liquid cooling. Check out Semiconductor Insider at chipstockinvestor.com. That's our membership where you can find all of our research and weekly live events. We will be talking about some new R and D work that TSMC is doing to cash in at some point in the future on this whole data center liquid cooling craziness that is going on.
So check that out. We'll have that update out later this week. See you over on Semi Insider. You might recognize this chart that we shared with you during our ASML presentation, showing the system sales breakdown for ASML over the last two quarters. We'll focus in on this most recent quarter in Q2 2025.
And that far right pie chart sales of lithography units, and the region that they're getting shipped to. Taiwan makes up 35% of that in Q2 2025, and TSM is not just in Taiwan anymore. They also have fabs in production and being built in the United States, and then they also have a partnership in Japan as well.
So a big portion of sales from ASML going to none other than TSMC. Before we continue with our discussion, wanna give a quick shout out to the sponsor of today's video, Fiscal.ai. Fiscal is a great research platform for getting. Deep dives and deep understanding of businesses. Before you make a decision on where you want to invest.
This chart we put together with fiscal.ai, showing TSMC's quarterly revenue and the growth rate in the blue bar. Fiscal.ai has lots of historical data like this, so you can chart back to 20 years and see the cycles for companies like TSMC, as they kind of ebb and flow with the demand and with the technology upgrade cycles inherent in the semiconductor industry.
But we just captured this part of the cycle here, the last cyclical decline a couple of years ago, and the subsequent growth since then, driven in large part by, of course, Nvidia and its Hopper and now Blackwell Systems. You can make your own cool charts like this one with a 15% off discount with any paid plan with the link in our description below or here on the screen, fiscal.ai/csi.
Now important little tidbit from this chart here. Of course, TSMC $32 billion in revenue in the last quarter, highly profitable, which we'll show you here in subsequent slides. They have the money to spend on these big expensive, EUV lithography machines from ASML, but a big chunk of ASML's revenue last quarter was of course upgrades to the low NA EUV machines.
Those are the previous gen EUV machines. TSMC has actually decided to make do with those, but wanted an upgrade to increase the throughput of their wafers being produced by ASML's equipment. That's one way TSMC can control these expenses to upgrade their fabs and maintain very high profitability. ASML of course, would like to see them upgrade to the new 5,200 B High NA machine, but that is the realm of just Intel at this point, as Intel looks for a way to narrow the technology gap with TSMC.
But let's delve into the specific TSMC numbers here for just a moment. The biggest portion of the pie, high performance computing, it's at 60% in this most recent quarter. High performance computing is data centers enterprise compute, including AI. HPC increased 14% quarter over quarter, but TSMC also had a healthy increase to pretty much all of their other end markets as well.
Smartphone increased 7% year over year. IOT or Internet of things increased 14%. Automotive was the kind of the outlier, stayed flat, but digital consumer electronics increased 30% and accounted for 1% of their total revenue by platform. So that's great news. The last couple of years of course, all things accelerated computing and AI is what has been keeping the semiconductor industry afloat, but it looks like the growth cycle is returning for the rest of the industry.
So that's great to see that happening for TSMC. But let's look at this next slide though, because far and away the main driver of growth right now is still accelerated computing and a lot of that manufacturing of accelerated computing is happening on the five nanometer or N five manufacturing node and the newest one that is still ramping up at a healthy rate on a year over year basis, the three nanometer or N three.
So TSMC tends to start with, the smartphone with their latest and greatest manufacturing processes, but slowly roll that out to high performance compute over time. This growth cycle a little bit different though because it's not just simply the, N five and n three, denominations indicating the comparative performance of the transistors and densities and logic chips, it's also being driven by advanced packaging and a lot of the new stuff that Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Marvell and others need to push the data center market forward for the AI era.
And how is TSMC managing their profitability as they roll out these new manufacturing processes? I think we'd say it's doing quite well. A lot of focus has been placed on all of the capital expenditures that TSMC has planned for future growth. They will have plenty of spending in Taiwan as well as in the United States.
CapEx was about 10 billion US dollars in Q2, which was up 44% from last year. But even with that spending Free, cash flow is still positive and came up 16% from the year prior, to 6.8 billion US dollars. We'll link a video we did right here in regards to that CapEx spending in Arizona in the United States.
And just real quick, look at the balance sheet here. So that free cash flow, helped fund the higher dividend payment, and helped maintain TSMC very deep pockets. They had 89.5 billion in US dollars in cash and equivalents on balance debt of about 30 billion, so net cash and equivalents over and above debt, almost 60 billion.
Yeah, this is indeed one of the deepest pocketed companies on the planet. Last bit here, Kasey. Let's take a look at the guidance. So this slide again from fiscal.ai. You can see in Q3 2024, revenue in US dollars was just shy of $24 billion. In Q3, 2025, revenue is expected to be between 31.8 billion and 33 billion, at the high end.
That's six to 10% sequentially, and between 37 and 38% at the high end of their guidance on a year over year basis. Yeah, that's pretty impressive growth. And Bear in mind, this does also include some headwinds from the weakening of the US dollar. So when TSMC makes a sale in the US and then converts that back to Taiwanese dollars for financial reporting purposes, it does hit their growth rate and also hits their profit margins.
We have more discussion on that effect over on Semiconductor Insider as well. But overall, this was obviously a fantastic Q2 and the outlook for the back half of 2025 is looking pretty good, as well as those Nvidia Blackwell systems ramp up to much larger production. We'll be discussing TSMC's foray into liquid cooling infrastructure over on Semiconductor Insider.
And we'll be discussing all kinds of stuff over there, especially as earning season rolls on. Make sure you hit the subscribe button, like the video, and check out our website chipstockinvestor.com We'll see all again soon here at Chip Stock Investor.
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