저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
연준의 완화적 통화정책 기조와 통화량 증가가 AI 랠리에 유동성을 공급한다고 봄. 금리 인하는 당분간 어려워 보이며 연준 다음 발표(워시 의장 체제 프레임워크)가 중요. 애플의 AI 전략(Siri+Gemini 연동, 생태계 락인)을 긍정적으로 평가. 마이크론 등 메모리 업체는 AI 수요로 구조적 호황이 가능하다는 주장.
다듬은 글
Uh, those those chips. I mean, that was a big turnaround uh that we also said. And then we we've gotten much more accommodating uh monetary policy. As you know, I look at the money supply. And over the last 3-4 months, we've actually had a ratchet upward, which means there is liquidity there that can keep on feeding the AI revolution.
At this point, I've I've I've said that no one would really hold it against uh Fed Chair Walsh. Wow, we got to start saying that. But who no one would really hold it against Fed Chair Walsh if he if he didn't do, you know, what President Trump obviously wants so much, and that's lower rates. Uh, because it things things have changed.
And and the bond market itself can dictate what's possible uh for the Fed to do. And it certainly doesn't look like interest rate cuts are coming anytime soon. I I mean, the 10-year is the ultimate arbiter. You're absolutely right. But do you notice that even a tone change of President Trump from, you know, you know, a month or two ago, oh, we definitely have to lower rates, almost to saying, hey, just don't raise rates.
I think his last statement was, I I don't think we should raise rates. He sort of maybe we could keep them the way they are. And clearly, I mean, next week, he's not going to raise or lower rates. But I mean, what is he going to map out? I mean, he is he going to change communications? Is he going to eliminate the dot plots?
Uh, I mean, I mean, a new agenda is going to be announced. Uh, he he gave us really not a lot of clues uh coming into him. No speech before uh the quiet period, which we're in right now. So, really, it's a big reveal, If you want next Wednesday Uh, that I I I I'm I'm going to be you know putting my ears right right to the the Fed announcement.
Yeah, we had Loretta Mester on yesterday and said there's no doubt that as rates move higher and you know the jobs number the Fed is not tight right now. If anything people are saying the Fed is is even maybe loose. Too too loose maybe too accommodative right now for for market conditions. Yeah. I mean in in my opinion especially when I look at the amount of credit now being offered into the market.
We take a look at the market. I mean it doesn't look like you know there's there's a dearth of capital that you know you know you take a look at the enthusiasm for SpaceX and and and and everything else. You know, we we absolutely we we we don't we just don't see that. And so yeah, I think it's the market is probably with a lot of uncertainty predicting we actually want a rise if you look at Fed funds futures by the end of the year, but that could you know really all change depending on what happens in the Gulf and also let's find out what you know Kevin Warsh's framework is actually going to be next week really quite quite important.
Organize you better on everything you have stored across your Apple devices. I mean we envision it playing out pretty much the way an average consumer is using these services today, right? Everybody is probably using two or three services at the same time going and doing the same sort of questions and queries on on every one of them and picking the best response.
So, I think what will eventually happen is Siri will become one of your tools to use with the underlying partnership that they have with Gemini and then you'll have your other services that are more cloud-based. Now, the differentiation here for Siri is there'll be a lot of personal context that it has on you through your device.
So, in some of the examples that Apple showed yesterday, those are really where drives the differentiation is you can manage your calendar, you can manage your contacts, you can do a lot of email editing, etc. So, those are all things that come easily with the integration with the native apps. Now, when you look at it in terms of third-party apps, there'll be certain things that they are good at, but you will won't really have the integration with the native apps and the personal context that they that you share beyond what you share in that in that prompt itself.
Yeah, I like how you describe it basically just working within the ecosphere and maybe making it stickier. The iPhone making all of everything you have with Apple a little stickier. You already have your photos there, you've got your music there. This kind of ties it in on one more level. If you think about it, I mean, one, you have the right to sell premium phones at a very high margin, offering the same feature set that is at par with other premium flagships and continues to drive you.
But then when you're in the Apple ecosystem, the stickiness, which has always been Apple's differentiation, continues to build on itself. I mean, there are other changes that all the other offerings that Apple introduced yesterday, including some of the child safety aspects in terms of families using the phones more and more, you can see that you'll now increase the number of devices per household and the entry-level phones as well will as the early consumer comes in will be brought in iPhone to go with that, right?
So, that also has long-term market share implications here. My question for you, if I could, is really actually about one of the comments that I noted yesterday around Apple saying that the models they're using from Google are different than Google's sort of classic Gemini model or something else. Do you think it means that that is a better model they're using, just fundamentally different model they're using, a lesser model?
How do you compare what's going on, for example, &hy Micron could become one of the biggest winner of AI revolution? For years, Micron was viewed as cyclic company. Memory price would rise and supply would catch up. Price would collapse. Profit would disappear. And then the cycle would start all over again.
Investors become conditioned to think about the Micron as a commodity business. But what if that assumption is no longer correct? I think that one of the most important question facing investors today. The reason is simple. Source of demand has fundamentally changed. Historically, memory demand were driven by consumers.
Smartphones, personal computers, gaming services, consumer electronics. Today, the primary driver is artificial intelligence. And AI infrastructure is consuming memory at unprecedented rate. Every new generation of AI systems require drastically more memory. Every larger models require more memory and every larger clusters require more memory.
This isn't coincidence. onent inside the modern AI system. Without memory, the GPUs cannot perform efficiently. Without memory, the models cannot scale efficiently. And in many ways, memory has become the fuel that allow AI infrastructures to operate. That bring us high bandwidth memory. HBM echnology in the entire semiconductor industry.
The market is effectively controlled by only one handful companies. Supply demand tight and the demand continue rising and capacity expansion take years. This create a very different environment than previous memory cycle. Historically, oversupply was always around the corners. Today, demand growth appears to be out-turning the supply growth.
That's why the memory pricing has remained so strong. It's also why companies like Micron and SK Hynix and Samsung continue increasing their investment. But even with those investments, supply remain constant. This is where the many investors may be underestimating the opportunity. When Nvidia launches a new architecture, memory requirement typically increase.
When inferences demand rises, then memory demand will also rises. When AI clusters become larger and memory demand rises, everything point in the same direction. More AI equal to more memory and we are still in the early. Isn't it AI is the only beginning? Enterprises adoption is the only beginning and physical AI is the only beginning.
So, what is an AI infrastructure and the robotics? All are just in their beginning. Every one of these trends increase memory demand.
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