저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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Cramer는 애플이 AI 경쟁에서 구글 Gemini에 의존해 안정적이지만 WWDC 이후 하락은 과잉반응이며 애플은 여전히 시장 리더라고 주장한다. 구글의 대규모 주식 발행과 향후 SpaceX·OpenAI 등 대형 IPO·증자가 시장 자금 부족과 수급 부담을 키울 수 있다고 경고한다. 반면 AI 인프라 수요는 공급 부족 상태이며 추론 수요 증가로 엔비디아에 유리하다고 낙관한다. 엔비디아에 대해서는 장기적으로 강세 입장을 유지하며 장기 보유를 권한다. 단기적으로는 증자와 IPO 수급 리스크를 언급한다.
다듬은 글
very tough to watch. If that happens, there'll be a lot of negative press about the deal, and it would spoil the bullish plot, or at least what's left of it. Third, change. Ooh, that pulled back in the stock of Apple today. Of the big cap stocks, Apple had been the cleanest story. It didn't have to spend big on artificial intelligence.
They have Alphabet to do it for them, and they're being paid for doing so because they have such an outstanding and deserved user base. When you have 2.5 billion devices out there, there's a much sought-after audience, right? And there's the scrum that is perplexity, Claude, Gemini, Grok, ChatGPT, Meta AI.
You can cement your relevancy by making a deal with Apple. And that's why Google paid them to be their search function. We don't know the terms of the AI deal, but I think that Apple did probably receive the whole package now includes Gemini as Siri. I think the idea that Apple is I mean, I say as Siri, what I mean is that it's Siri's gotten much smarter.
How about that? Apple is is now is is it done? And there are no more improvements? That's what I kept hearing say, it's done. Well, that's just plain stupid. It's going to get better and better. No one's going to switch from this phone because they were disappointed by today's Worldwide Developers Conference, except for the hedge fund guys and gals who watch this show at our network and said, "Oh, it's really bad." I mean, it wasn't even a tradeable event, although people tried to trade it, and the traders are the losers, not Apple.
That's it. Apple's a leader, maybe the leader, and I don't want to lose the leader of this stock market. We've lost all the other mega cap stocks now. Forgive me for wanting one of them to keep winning because I do think Apple could have gone higher on the same info we got today. I wanted it to open down and then rally.
Uh finally, there's the equity issuance from Google last week. I didn't see it coming. You didn't see it either. It was brilliant if you work at Google. Great if you put place it at Goldman Sachs. I You now have the money to build more profitless data centers to keep your cloud customers from going to another competitor, and that's what they're going to do.
It's bad for everyone else though, especially shareholders of Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. The ease with which Google raised the cash was incredible. Goldman Sachs did a tremendous job. But if there's more equity issuance from the other companies I just mentioned, especially before the SpaceX IPO, then will the SpaceX deal be as well received?
Won't maybe some of these people who want the stock cut it back? Could the next deal be the deal too far? And the market literally runs out of money, as I've been saying for months. Remember, any large account that gets a lot of stock is going to buy more once it starts trading. That's kind of the official custom.
Who knows what will that will mean to the stock itself? Who knows how many articles and news reports there'll be about how stupid people are buying it because it doesn't make any money. But hey, insult injury, I don't know. I Apple Tonight Open AI announced that it filed its S-1. So, that one's now coming right down the pike.
I was hoping there'd be a little bit of a respite there. Uh-uh, not for the weary. And how about SpaceX? Really. Okay, I am bullish on that. I think you can buy some and put it away for your grandchildren, not with market orders and wait, don't buy the opening. It could take a very long time for some of these projects to come to fruition, obviously, maybe your entire lifetime.
Personally, I think that's too long a time horizon, but if you're thinking in terms of future generations, I'm not going to squabble with you. Be my guest. That said, this deal is a bit fraught. profitable this year with the ability to grow from there with a reduced cost base. And so, our ability to operate as a one ecosystem that serves the industry and serves the customer.
And our ability to reinvest in our business is something we haven't had the ability to do before. I'm trying to put my head in the mindset of someone who would spend that much in a year. Um, I'm guessing E is e-commerce important here or is this really about someone who is going to be interested in an in-store experience, concierge service, that kind of thing?
You know, we we are devoted to the customer and we do what the customer desires. What we observe is that all customers love to be omni-channel and when they are omni-channel, they spend 10 times more than if they only operate online and three times more than if they only operate with us and shop with us in stores.
So, our ability to be present to them 24/7 is very important. And then ultimately, many of our customers love the service of a sales associate who's dedicated to them and who's going to look across the assortment of brands and products we have, what's right for them. Because that to me is the ultimate luxury, is to receive what's right for you.
It's the art of you, it's delighting you as an individual in what your desires and wants are. What's your relationship at this point like with the vendors, which are so key, obviously, to getting new product, interesting product, entice consumers? Has Has the bankruptcy process been a distraction and and tough to maintain those relationships?
No, it's actually been a fortifier of our relationship, if that's an English word. We got into the bankruptcy with limited equity and not the ability to pay the brands. We now have ample liquidity and we have the brands supporting us. So, if I look at the start of the year to today, we received 2.6 billion of inventory at cost and we started the year early February.
The brands are supporting us with inventory. That's led us to grow year month-on-month compared to the prior month in revenue. And now, the excitement is really the brands are looking, how do we access this luxury customer in the US through the Saks global ecosystem and looking at unique activations, celebrating the Bergdorf 125th anniversary this fall in a unique manner, and expanding that distribution across Saks, Neiman, or Bergdorf.
Model routing, which cuts costs by directing easy questions or tasks to cheaper AI models. What about the Chinese ones? Uh Deirdre Bosa brings us more of that story in today's Tech Check. Hi Deirdre. There's going to be some folks out there, especially the Nvidia bulls, that don't want to hear that the Chinese models are taking over usage, but that is absolutely what's happening when you look at some of the third party.
And this really has to do with model routing. This is the buzzword of the moment in AI and the idea is very simple. Kelly kind of laid it out. Not every task needs the most expensive model. So, you route the easy work to the cheaper AI, save the frontier models for the jobs where they actually make a difference.
Now, it is starting to matter a lot right now because comp- &. I know that biggest opportunities demand no one even existed. One of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming that future demand will look similar to to the demands history is full of the opposite. The largest technology opportunities often come from use cases that doesn't even exist.
When the infrastructure was first being built, when the internet was being deployed, nobody predicted YouTube. Nobody predicted Uber. Nobody predicted Netflix streaming and nobody is predicted TikTok. The infrastructure came first and the killer applications arrived later. I believe artificial intelligence is following the same pattern.
Today, investors focus heavily on chatbots, coding assistants, image generation, enterprises capital lots, and those are important, but they may maybe represent only the first generation of AI applications. The truly transformating applications may not even existed. That's why I pay close attention to infrastructure.
Infrastructure always come before mass adoption. Before smartphones changed the world, wireless network had to be built. Before cloud computing exploded, data centers had to be built. Before e-commerce scaled globally, logistics network had to be built. And before AI reaches its full potential, massive computer infrastructure must be built.
That is exactly what we are witnessing today. The market sometimes ask whether hyperscalers are overspending. I think that's the wrong question. The better question is whether they are building enough capacity. Every major cloud providers continue talking about cost structure. Every major AI labs continue talking about the cost structure and every major enterprise deployment continue talking about the cost structure.
The theme is not excess supply. The common theme is insufficient supply. That distinction matters because when supply exceeds the supply sorry, demand, then companies cut the spending. When demand exceeds the supply, companies accelerate the spending. Right now, the evidence point out overwhelmingly toward the second scenario.
And that's why NVIDIA means so important. The company is supplying the peak and shovel for entirely a new technological era, not just for today AI, but potentially for tomorrow AI as well. Another point that often went overlooked is how quickly AI capabilities continue improving. People frequently compare current AI models to model from 6 months ago.
The difference is remarkable. Reasoning capabilities improved, coding capabilities are improved, and generative capabilities all are improved. And every improvement create additional demand because every improvement unlock a new use cases. A better model attract the more users, and more users require more compute.
And ultimately, more inferences require more compute, and more compute is benefit NVIDIA. That cycle will repeat, and this is why I think many traditional values and framework struggle with NVIDIA.
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