저자: TomLee · 외국인
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인구통계(출생 코호트) 기준으로 현 강세장 고점은 2023 이후이며 2038년경 대폭락 가능성이 낮다고 주장. 관세·Fed·연준 완화 기대, VIX 기간구조 역전은 단기 바닥 신호로 해석. 테슬라·엔비디아 하락은 경쟁력 훼손이 아니라 과매도로 보고, 스몰캡은 ETF 투매 영향. 비트코인은 금 시총과 격차가 커 장기 상승 여지를 강조.
다듬은 글
Is the bull market over? No. Probabilities are very remote because if you look at all bull market top major tops before 40% drawdown since 1900, all of them could have been predicted with a 40-year lead time based on births. So you think So that that demography thing is still in force no matter what they they do to try to mess it up.
Yeah, that's right cuz if you cut the population by just 20-year intervals and you mark the peak of each cohort, it marked the 1927 29 top, the 74 top, the 99 top, 2018 top, and the next major top shouldn't be till 2023. not Stop everything you think you know about the stock market. Financial and crypto analyst Tom Lee just dropped a bombshell that will leave your jaw on the floor.
He just predicted the next massive market crash isn't happening anytime soon. In fact, it might not strike until 2038. That's 13 years from now. Yes, you heard that right. How in the world could he be so sure? The answer is demographics, something most investors overlook. While everyone's focused on economic shifts and global crises, Lee points out that past market crashes were tied to a much bigger, longer-term trend, changes in population.
Think about it. The crashes of 1929, 1974, 2008, and 2018 all came after significant demographic shifts like birth rates and immigration patterns. If these patterns hold up, we're not even close to the peak of the current bull market. According to Lee, we've got plenty of room to run before we hit that crash, and it could be decades before the next big top.
So forget about the doom and gloom predictions. If history is any guide, the market still got a wild ride ahead. Lee's warning is don't panic because the current bull market could stretch all the way to 2038 with plenty of opportunities to cash in. If you're ready to bet on the market crashing any day now, you might have to rethink again.
The numbers are pointing in a totally different direction. It's crazy. It's unbelievable, and it could be the best news for investors yet. Let's watch clips from Tom Lee's explosive interview to gain more insight. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and enable notifications for additional in-depth content.
Thanks for joining us again. Enjoy the video. The Fed's already comfortable that they've got a big margin of cushion where rates are. Uh they're already running tight. Right. And now they're assessing how much damage it's doing to the economy before tariffs and this is the thing, like we know a lot of these supports have been rolling off at the start of this year.
That's why consumption's down. And then tomorrow's the jobs report, but already it's foreboding like the Challenger job cuts ADP. You know, if we get a 50,000 jobs report tomorrow, there is not really there's a huge question on this dual mandate because full employment, I mean we're you know, we're risking you know, an a real collapse in the employment market.
So in a way it the bond market, I mean I'm I'm sure people interpret I think he's arguing the Fed is is late to cut. Okay. Why? Because of what the 10-year has done or Yeah, where the 10-year is with the implied like even the odds of a May cut. I didn't see it today, but I bet you it's well over 50% now.
Uh a cut in May? Yeah. Oh, I would bet it is. Yeah. So that that's a Fed that's actually kind of being now judged to be behind the curve. And so if they're cutting, it's going to be a welcome release pressure valve release cuz the market's pressuring the Fed to do something. Market people love to look at AAII and act contrarian to that.
Last week, one of the things we were talking about on the show was how fast the bears shot up to an almost record level. What do you think about that? I know you follow AAII. You look at that stuff. I I I follow it and I think from the the right time frame for us is like 6 months. Because like cuz then it captures cuz the the survey's done over a period of time and so it doesn't always capture what the market did that week anyways.
Okay. Um but It's cumulative, you're saying? Yeah, it's kind of the same thing like when the these economic surveys are done, sometimes they're done like by finished by Wednesday or Friday and then so it you actually get some weird differences because of what's happened in those three four days. Okay.
So But I remember in a prior podcast we talked about how people's uh time frames have changed. Maybe because like maybe the world's more short-term focused, but you know, with instant liquidity, I think that's why people can go from bull to bear because they can act with a push button now. Instead of calling their broker and getting talked out of it, they just And institutional world is the same way.
The chart you showed about imports, it kind of highlights that we've already front-loaded the tariff war because it's China, Mexico, Canada, and then everybody else is like smaller fry. I mean I know China's uh tweet or comment today is what sort of made the futures weak in the morning. Yeah. But Which was what?
We're ready to go to war? Yeah, wait wait yeah, we're going to dig in on this. Yeah. But I think you know, as you know, the problem is in China isn't in the same position as it was in 2018. So it's not as if they can fight a a long economic battle here because especially because of all the things they're trying to accomplish in China itself.
So I think of course a lot of that is gamesmanship. And the intention is if I was trying to I would say that cuz I'd want the S&P to fall more because if the S&P falls enough, then the White House put comes back. So it's Yeah. You know, I mean the stock market is kind of caught in the crosshairs right I assume you don't see a bear market coming like a full-fledged 20%er.
It's possible because it's been a couple years, but this would have to be because there has to be a layered shock on top of this. Like if if the Fed like for instance, if somehow the Fed decides that the economy's weakening, but they choose to fight inflation and let a recession happen. So in other words, the idea is, well, we've been wanting a recession to kill inflation.
Like let's just let it happen. Yeah. Then we're of course we're going to have a big drawdown. But that would really require a Fed that decided the employment mandate wasn't important because you know, a recession we just like once a recession starts, there's no such thing as like we can engineer a mild recession.
I mean it's like you could have a severe recession because you just don't know. Most of us think of the VIX as a spot index. Like oh, this is it's measuring the expected volatility over the next 90 days. So that's what the spot VIX is. Um but it's actually a financial product and people trade VIX contracts, but nobody trades spot VIX.
They trade the one month VIX, two months, nine months. I think there's even 24 month VIX. Right. The normal VIX futures curve is upward sloping, which they call either contango or backwardation. Yeah, like And you know, like I always get the terms mixed up. It's like starboard and port. I'll get it wrong.
Yeah. So it's upward sloping. Okay. Because there's time value. Like oh, future VIX should be higher cuz you got time value money. When the VIX does the opposite, so the one month contract is higher than the four month. So that inversion is what the bottom histogram chart shows. So when it's like pointing up, that means the one month is higher than the four month.
What does that mean to you though? How do you interpret that? That's a short-term bottom. Well, it means Yeah, so So what the markets have now priced in is that the volatility has an expiration date. Uh okay. Yeah, right because now you know it's going to be in the next three months. If you have a time frame beyond that contract, then you're like, oh well, volatility should be lower in four months.
And we all know if vol's down, value at risk goes up. So four months from now volatility's down, risk is on. The market is standing on the edge of a cliff. Will the Fed slash rates in time or is an even bigger catastrophe looming? Tom Lee is ringing the alarm. Tightening financial conditions, massive job cuts, and a tidal wave of bearish sentiment scream urgency.
With bond markets already betting on rate cuts, the Fed could be left scrambling. And then there's China's aggressive posture, adding rocket fuel to the fire. But wait, here's the curveball. The VIX inversion hints at a shocking relief on the horizon. Is this the perfect moment to buy or the beginning of an even greater collapse?
Tom Lee isn't panicking. Instead, he's spotting opportunities in the chaos. Sure, Tesla and Nvidia are taking hits, but their dominance is far from shattered. Small caps are being ruthlessly dumped even as key sectors show unexpected strength. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is rapidly becoming the backbone of global finance with banks eyeing it for everything from data security to transactions.
If Bitcoin catches up to gold's market cap, its price could explode. Lee even suggests the US could start hoarding Bitcoin as a defense against the national debt. Is this the beginning of an unprecedented financial revolution? Let's watch more clips from the interview. I mean if anyone had owned these before 2020 four, Yeah.
then they're still sitting on huge gains. Okay. So um you know, it's really any new buyers of these are down, but that's really you know, that'd be like shame on you cuz you bought it um You bought at highs. Yeah. Okay. But I I mean like I look at this and I'd say, you know what? I think Tesla and Nvidia, they're they've been hit the hardest.
Do I think that they're future trajectory is worse? I I I I actually think that they still look like great companies and it's not like in Tesla's case, it's not like their competitive position has worsened. It's probably strengthening. Tesla's competitive position relative to other EV companies. Yeah, and their leadership and let's say that there's like if you ask a techno a technologist, what's the next big thing?
He's going to say robots. Tesla's, you know, country mile ahead of a lot of people on robots. So, it's not like that being down 35% has changed their competitive position. Is the bull market over? No. You don't think so? I You know, the bull market uh it would be surprised if it's over. So, I shouldn't say no like I know cuz I don't know.
Um I'm sorry. So, I'll But, I'd say the probabilities are very remote because um if you look at all bull market top major tops before 40% drawdown since 1900 all of them could have been predicted with a 40-year lead time based on births. So, you think and immigration does. that demography thing is still in force no matter what they they do to try to mess it up.
right cuz if you cut the population by just 20-year intervals and you mark the peak of each cohort it marked the 1927 29 top, the 74 top, the 99 top, 2018 top. And the next major top shouldn't be till 2023. not I've seen this chart and uh I'd say I don't necessarily have problems with how this is constructed.
That being said, it's thing I'd say is that there's wide distributions in year three. So, there's actually plenty of 20% years. Okay. So, it's not like cuz this chart makes it look like you're only going to be 5% and like you hover like It doesn't show all all of the distributions. Yeah, so this is a because uh is a wide as wide the distributions are, year three also reflects bull markets and then they you have a huge decline.
I don't think if there's a recession small caps outperform. So, like on that downside, I don't think it's protected. But, if we look at the composition here, I actually am surprised it's done so poorly because for instance uh health care's the you know, the best performing sector year-to-date and you can see health care's a bigger weight in small caps.
Financials have done well year-to-date. It's a bigger weight in small caps. Industrials have outperformed year-to-date and it's a bigger weight. You have less exposure to tech. So, what's weighing the small caps down this year? I think it's the push button because Just people saying sell small caps.
It's higher beta. Yeah, so they're derating. They got cheaper. Okay. I didn't realize small caps are down 15% in a 50% drawdown. I didn't realize that. Yeah. So, that it's not like someone's doing relative value. As you know, what's working this year is like financials, industrials, health care. That's like a huge That's already more than half of the Russell.
So, it should be a good index, but it's And I think the individual stocks have been, but as an index, it's been hasn't worked. How are we getting to 5 million? Now, that's that's a Slowly. Yeah, and then all at once. Yeah. The By the way, you can if you got to 5 million cuz we have a tape a grid to show, it's that gold would be doubled in price.
Show the previous chart. Yeah. Gold would double in price. So, this is if if crypto reaches parity with gold in terms of market cap? Yes. Okay, it's not there already? No, it's only 10% of the value of gold. Wait, what? How much gold is there in the world? There is 21 trillion dollars of gold. How much crypto?
Three? Bitcoin's two. Bitcoin by itself is two. Yeah. However, you know, I heard something interesting and I didn't realize gold has outperformed the S&P six of the last seven years. Yeah. So, Quietly, too. Yeah, so gold isn't a bad asset class, but Bitcoin So, I think even if it's not like millennials need to buy gold for gold to go up.
You just need the boomers to hold it. You need central banks around the world to buy it and hold it, which they are. That's right. If Bitcoin becomes the backbone of a of a new financial system, which it really is like you know, it's the king of the remittances. It's a you know, it is the immutable blockchain and it's people have a lot of reasons that they trust it and for 10 years no one's broken it and there's no replacement.
Then if the US owns a million Bitcoin, they'll be the largest holder of Bitcoin. Let's say that it becomes 10% of people's net worth and banks start to use it to secure information. Remember the blockchain, you can just store one pixel of a 10 million page document, but the hash will detect if you changed one pixel.
So, that's why you're going to use the Bitcoin to secure information, right? Well, that's really valuable. But, then wouldn't the US want to be able to control this blockchain or exert some way to censor it somehow? Okay. And you know, once banks start trading Bitcoin like Citadels it will probably be the most profitable product for Goldman and JP Because of how volatile it is.
Bid-ask spreads are wider. Correct. And if oil's traded 400 times, Bitcoin would might be a thousand times. It's going to be a hugely traded commodity. The market is in turmoil with Nvidia, Super Micro, and Dell plunging as Singapore's probe into restricted chip shipments to China sparks fears of tighter regulations.
At the same time, Bitcoin has shed $10,000 in a day following President Trump's unexpected pivot toward a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, a shift that has left crypto experts uneasy. Meanwhile, a weaker than expected jobs report and new tariffs have ignited fears of stagflation, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve's next move.
Tom Lee believes this wave of volatility doesn't signal a bear market, but rather a temporary correction driven by shifting narratives. He notes that Tesla and Nvidia, despite their stock declines, remain industry leaders with Tesla strengthening its position in robotics and AI. The broader sell-off, he argues, is being fueled by ETF-driven panic selling rather than a real deterioration in fundamentals.
On the crypto front, Lee suggests that Bitcoin's long-term outlook remains strong despite its recent pullback. He highlights that if Bitcoin continues gaining adoption in global finance, it could rival gold's market cap, leading to a potential price surge. However, with Trump's crypto reserve plan introducing new uncertainties, investors wonder whether this is a moment to buy the dip or brace for further turbulence.
As the Fed remains behind the curve and markets digest political and economic shifts, the question remains, is this a buying opportunity or the beginning of something bigger? Let us know don't forget to like and subscribe.
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