저자: DavidTepper언급—영상화자Daniel,소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Tepper가 엔비디아 지분을 90% 이상 줄인 이유를 분석. 2024~2029 실적 시나리오(매출 260B 등) 상으로는 성장 여지가 있으나 마진 하락 리스크와 기대치 선반영으로 위험보상비가 매력적이지 않다고 판단. 대안으로 천연가스(체서피크에너지), 원전(콘스텔레이션 에너지), 메타(스마트글라스)와 CRO 등 간접 수혜 테마 제시. 면책 고지 및 유료 구독 광고 포함.
다듬은 글
David Tepper is a billionaire investor known for his bold predictions , including a market rally during the financial crisis, which worked remarkably well. More recently, he also declared a " bull" market in China. I just made a video about this. Previously, however, he made a big bet on Nvidia, purchasing more than $400 million worth of the company's shares in the first half of 2023.
This apparently worked wonderfully, yielding several hundred percent profit. He, you know, clearly sees the possibilities of artificial intelligence. AI is the foundation of this new industrial revolution, and Nvidia chips are driving it. This is driving a revolution in computing, healthcare, transportation , manufacturing, and humanoid robots.
Fully. This is a hundred trillion dollar market potentially captured by Nvidia's technologies. So, he clearly sees these opportunities. And his bet brought Appaloosa, his investment fund , from half a billion to a billion dollars in a fairly short period of time. He understands this thesis perfectly well, and yet he subsequently reduced his share by more than 90%.
So what's going on? Does n't he see the news about Oracle's Larry Ellison and Elon Musk begging the Nvidia founder for new GPUs, saying, "Hey, you're taking too little money"? Doesn't he see the stories about Microsoft forming long-term partnerships to restart the Three-Mile Island nuclear power plant ?
I mean, if you restart a nuclear power plant, you need to power data centers filled with graphics cards. Nvidia... doesn't he see that Intel and other competitors are n't even close to being as successful as Nvidia? So you see all this data. You look at Nvidia's financials. You see, Wall Street's expectations of 100% growth this year, record margins, and profit forecasts of over 100% this year and another 40% next year—are still intact.
Does n't he see this? Why is he selling his share? His direct quote: "Everything looks great at 24, and so does 25." And that's exactly what I just showed you. But I have no idea what will happen in '26 and '27. I don't trust my analysts. I don't trust any analysts. I do n't even trust myself. This is not the tool I prefer.
According to him, he would buy Nvidia at a lower price, but at the current price he sees no point. And maybe he's right. Let's take a look at Wall Street's revenue forecasts. I mean, this is really, this is an incredible schedule. Look, from sales of about $20 billion over many years, and now, is it going to be 200 billion or closer to 300 billion in a few years?
This is Wall Street's expectation. So this is clearly an incredible graph, and you can understand why he's a little worried, because if there's any impact, you're like, " Wait, this graph isn't even visible." I'm closing it a little. But if you assume that in 2027 you will not reach this figure, but will be slightly below it.
Or maybe you'll be a little taller than him. Will this be enough to push stocks higher? And do you have a high degree of confidence that you will meet or exceed those expectations? Because remember, investing is largely the psychology of what other players at the investment poker table are thinking .
And if others say, " Wait, you're not really meeting my expectations, or you're just barely meeting them." Then there may be a situation where the stock will not grow because these expectations, this schedule, are probably already built into the price. Wall Street is also beginning to expect that margins may eventually start to return, not completely, but partially to previous values.
This certainly reflects a shift from a regime where margins were, say, 20 to 40 percent. You are now in a new margin range of 50 to 60%. So is it possible that you will show better sales results , but will have some margin decline, say, in 5 years ? Is this a risk? This is obviously what he's saying: "I just don't know." It's hard for me to say with certainty that in 4-5 years you'll still be at this level of operating margin of 55-60%, maybe you'll go back to 40%.
And this, of course, has a huge impact on stocks. When I run this analysis through AI Ticker Chat, it mostly comes to the same conclusion: you could have fantastic results over the next few years. You could even reach $260 billion in revenue under an optimistic scenario by 2029. We still remain at the 60% margin level in the long term.
We still assume a multiplier of 40 by 2029. But if you take all these aspects into account , you know, keep in mind the growth in revenue from 60 billion to 260 billion. This is incredible. 60% margin. These are incredible figures. This still only gives about 70% of the growth potential . So I think he's pointing out that, look, he owned Nvidia.
He still has a stake in it, but it's no longer his favorite instrument because the risk-reward ratio is not as attractive. He's not so sure. Yes, there is this AI revolution. David Tepper just doesn't think the risk-reward ratio is that attractive . And you see it in this type of analysis, AI forecast from AI Ticker Chat.
So I understand this perspective. So what is David Tepper betting on? Where does he see, you know, the next billion-dollar opportunity or how does he capitalize on the AI revolution? First of all, for full transparency, this is not financial advice. Also a short commercial: last week Shaka, a premium subscriber, wrote, and this is a direct quote: "I have been a member of your premium service for two years in a row." I always enjoy your views on stocks and the market in general.
After joining, I was able to recoup some of my losses during the 2022 crash. But the most rewarding aspect of this journey has been the sense of stability I was able to achieve through your services. If you are looking for interesting investment ideas, visit Unrivaled Investing. My name is Daniel. So, one of his bets is a direct quote.
David Tepper says, "If you're going to meet these electricity needs for AI, you're going to have to use natural gas." One of these bets is Chesapeake Energy (CHK) shares. It's a relatively small position for him, but he's essentially saying, " Look, you're going to need a lot of energy for these data centers." One source is natural gas.
This will be one of the main sources of energy. And what are the promising moves here? Personally, I have a hard time with commodity assets because I don't like the sales dynamics of raw materials compared to something like a branded product or, you know, a recurring sales model. With commodities, you essentially don't choose your destiny.
This depends on supply and demand in the underlying market. This is too difficult for me to understand. But this is one of his game options. He may also own natural gas futures. He also said that expecting nuclear power to be shut down is completely absurd. He believes that in the coming years we will see further expansion of nuclear power.
Just today, the Palisades Nuclear Power Plant in Michigan received funding—a $ 1.5 billion loan to resume operations. So, in the coming years you will see more of these projects, more nuclear energy. This is a pretty obvious direction, given the energy needs of AI. So, those are two key points. He did not single out any one specific company in the nuclear industry.
He owns Chesapeake, and, you know, I did a video before about Constellation Energy, where I talked about how it's an energy company that's focused mostly on nuclear power and their partnership with Microsoft. His third key idea that he highlighted was Meta. Most recently, they introduced Orion, their augmented reality glasses.
I think this is a very interesting move. This is an example of a situation that I think could unfold over the next few decades. Mark Zuckerberg sees this opportunity, and I've been, you know, discussing this with my friends for the better part of the last decade, that in the future you're going to have super-smart glasses like the ones you saw here from Zuckerberg.
These are the prototypes he's wearing in this photo, which are said to cost around $10,000, but he expects they could be sold for just a few hundred in the coming years. So you can expect a significant reduction in cost as they work on this. Many people say they were impressed with this Orion product.
And again, I believe this is a long-term, obvious trend. Zuckerberg saw the pressure he had previously felt from Apple and how they had made his life as an advertiser difficult. And I think he's looking to change the next cycle of hardware development, and he clearly believes that AI smart glasses -- these aren't AI smart glasses, sorry, they're just regular glasses that I bought from Zeni for cheap, but I clearly believe that the AI built into them is capable of monitoring your actions, interacting with you, providing intelligent information, while you're working, thinking, chatting with friends, or arguing with your wife, you can say, "Oh, wait a second." This is exactly what you said, and you can review it as the recording will be ongoing.
Theoretically, you will have a superintelligence with you. And Meta is clearly working on it. You know, Zuckerberg talked about his investment in Llama. So , they are a strong contender for creating a cutting-edge model, at least an open-source cutting-edge model. So I look at it and think, "Wow, this is really interesting looking at Meta." I've made a video about Meta before.
I want to delve into this question a little better , because I firmly believe in the history and future of the $1,000 smartphone. I just don't see the point in it when the main value comes from AI and an internet connection , but what if you could get it with a convenient screen in front of your eyes?
I don't know. We'll see. I suspect this is one of those cases, and it's clearly one of the bets David Tepper made. I also think that other emerging trends will emerge in the coming years. For example, last week I talked about a contract research organization. And the reason they're winning is because it's, I would say , a structural, multi-year, maybe decade-long advantage from AI.
This is an indirect effect. Much like how natural gas is an indirect beneficiary of AI, AI makes it easier to research new products. More and more biotech companies will say, "Hey, I have this revolutionary treatment." It just needs to pass clinical trials. So, I think we'll see all sorts of secondary effects that will bring direct benefits.
There are also many companies that will be seriously destabilized. There will be many companies, such as call centers, whose business models will be in a difficult position. But I believe this is an industrial revolution . There will be companies that will benefit significantly, and there will be a lot of upheaval.
And the trick is to find something that, hopefully, can ride that wave. If this video was useful to you, please like and subscribe to the channel. Thank you for watching Unrivaled Investing.
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