저자: FundManagerZech · 외국인
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결론: 엔비디아는 성장성은 좋지만 주가가 과열 수준이라 평가 점수는 5점 만점에 2점이다. [회사 재무 상태] 잉여현금흐름이 양호하고 순현금 상태이며 순이익률은 약 28.77%로 업계 평균(17.85%)보다 높다고 평가한다. [밸류에이션] PER이 약 56배로 S&P 평균보다 훨씬 높고 업계 평균보다도 높아 비싸다고 본다. 할인현금흐름 분석 적정주가 범위는 147~156달러로 제시되며, 당시 주가 223달러는 고평가 상태다. [성장 동력] 암호화폐 채굴 수요 급증으로 매출이 늘었으나, 채굴 전용 장비(ASIC)로 대체될 위험이 있다고 지적한다. 자율주행, AI, 게임 사업은 긍정적 요인으로 꼽는다. [투자자 심리] eToro 커뮤니티에서 매수 거래가 매도보다 다소 많다는 점을 긍정적으로 언급한다. [리스크] 매출 대비 높은 주가 수준과 채굴 수요 의존도를 주요 리스크로 제시하고, 과거 닷컴 버블 당시 Sun Microsystems의 사례를 인용해 고평가 경고를 덧붙인다. [결론] 회사의 장기 전망은 좋게 보지만 현재 가격에서는 매수에 신중해야 한다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
hey dudes hey Judas and everybody in between welcome to my channel where we talk about fundamental training today we're talking about Nvidia I'm starting this new series called my grandma rating series and this is how likely a man is killed what five to recommend this thesis this idea to my grandmother so today we're looking at invidia it's a very exciting company I personally have a computer that uses the Nvidia graphics card and I'm very active in the mining community so crypto mining some more well what kind of cards are popular in the market for crypto currencies and I know in videos AMD are pretty much the only two contenders right there so without further ado let's get into the fundamentals looking the fundamentals of Nvidia okay guys so I'm going to start with the eToro wall which is where all the members of the eternal community kind of communicate why they are into the sudden starts and the reasons for being in and it's kind of interesting because I noticed that everybody is positive based on a few factors okay one they have positive free cash flow this is also data from seeking alpha and stuff like that and this is also my own research Tiger fizz interesting prospects and everybody's into the driverless cars the AI that they are gonna roll out the stable gaming business which is the new cars like I found this card and of course crypto mining so all these played to the fundamentals of the stock in themselves that how it affects revenue and of course the prospects of the company okay so we start off with the chart nvidia has gone on a really really strong bull around if you look at it from all the way back from $2 all the way $223 this back in 2013 maybe okay so it's a good run-up and a lot of this has to do with the AI play so there is this great article on seeking offer where it talks about the fundamental values I can't do a DC analysis myself but it takes a lot of time and personally I don't enjoy doing it as much based on is a discounted cash flow model he is this assumption of analysts I've come up and this is the estimates of what they expect or they expect the company to grow at and this is discounted cash flow model I put a link of this in the description below I think there's not not a not too bad this kind of cash flow model of course they're more complex ones but this this works fine so he's saying that the fair first range is 147 to 155 point eight and of course he's looking at the sales growth of about 37 percent to about 16 20 percent in the future so it's pretty high growth rate saying he's assuming it that so right now we are trading at 223 so they should tell you that were overvalued when I started this research I wanted to look at the fundamental data so this is why I came out of some of these it's a positive cash flow looking in the cash flow statement okay if you don't know what all these are it's okay you can i'll explain so many times as we go through it but that great YouTube videos I mean do some of my own a future day I'm just looking at the applications of it okay so future cash flows cash flow just means like how much cash the company generates every year this includes the sales just regular sales which is from operating activities investing activities can be things like if they bought another company this and financing activities that really really just specifically refers to loans and you can see here dividend payments okay so overall over the annual I prefer annuals the generally produce positive cash flow which is great it's it's great to see positive cash in this kind of economy means to generate more cash than you're expending and not using debt to do it so your organic growth for business is really good so like this last not profitable in 2015 when anything has been coming down so because of this low interest rate environment but then again we've had low interest rate since 2012 so cash flows pretty good Saudi cash they're holding a lot of cash look at that it's to two hundred and so six seven nine eight and yeah liabilities is like this okay so they're more cash than they do have liabilities so this means that the company is what we call net cash meaning that if they took all their cash and a pair ordered that immediately they would be still they would still have excess cash which is great which is very very very good income statement looking true I don't very much report I think most of the things I would have wanted to say is really in the cash flow statement maybe I can destroy attention to this which is earnings per share you're looking at two point five nine and twenty seventeen and one point three in previous years that means for every share that you owned on the company they generate earnings of about two thousand fifty nine cents so add a current price of two twenty four this is about one percent that's not so good yeah the ratio of the earnings to price of the shares so right now this is about fifty six point twenty two which is not great this is very very very high the average in the S&P I believe is about just over twenty twenty-eight maybe I'm not exactly sure I'm I don't quote me on that but it's about it's pretty high 56 is really really really you can see the industry average it's even lower than that so even excluding the S&P everybody's really into tech it's still very high for the industry cam gonna come back to this right at the end because it's gonna take a bit of explanation other than I was looking at these these are very very very good look at this net profit margin twenty eight point seven seven versus industry 17.8 five expect these of tech companies but even for tech companies within the industry NVIDIA is doing a really really good job okay something that does concern me I have to say is the revenue numbers and know okay and I know it looked really really good I mean look at that growth five zero one zero two six nine one zero okay but the fact is they were making a lot of money from the graphics cards which crypto-currency graphics cuts which I believe would be classified under here I can't imagine them being classified under here so if you go into dad just looking at that and looking at this article from coined s you can see the Nvidia script minus 70 million I declined for 150 insane quarters let's assume the first quarter came in at 70 the same quality 150 an attack for a came in not a 70 the subtotal 390 million dollars if 390 million dollars looking at this this grows 700 million dollars 390 is taken up by the cryptocurrency mining boom if you like that's quite a large chunk of it now a little bit more involved in the mining space I understand a little bit more as if the real moves to proof of what was proof of stake versus proof of war I believe this number come down things like narrow still use they'll still use mining rigs question is will they move into a six like what bitcoin has done which is application-specific mines these are just computer modules and all they do is just mined bitcoin just one application is just a mine Bitcoin and those are way way way more cost-effective to produce and more efficient in the use of power so these are questions that in video themselves I mean I don't think anybody can answer that but nonetheless assay when you're looking at the kind of revenue growth that we were looking at just now still continuing to grow every year twenty percent it is a very optimistic number okay one more thing I wanted to look at it this is a great tool that they have on eToro which is research so any of you are not yet or this isn't great to just look at stocks okay first of all they say they give the end of this everything and how much it most people assume where it's gonna go and they also give this which is what I kind of want to see more of this inside the transactions so this is based on the people within the company do they think it's a good buy for the company at this share price right now and the answer to that is if you at all I just copy and paste into Excel the total number of buyers in the past let's say 12 months is about 2157 sells with 121 so they're more by themselves it's not by a lot but there's still more buys and sells so this is positive as well so overall what's my rate in your video I'm gonna have to give it maybe a 2 out of 5 and the reason for that is I like the company as a whole I think its future prospects are very very good but it is fairly really really expensive and I think strapped at home that point home like I mentioned just now the price of sales or something that was very curious to me and I'm gonna hand this off to Jesse Felder who was on the investors podcast just listen the way he has to say and you know this I hope that this video is at least informative to you and how I would look at it solved and hopefully helps you make better trading decisions this was specifically in regards to NVIDIA Facebook stocks trading 10 times revenues or more back in 2001 kind of late 2001 I think Scott McNealy gave I interviewed to Bloomberg and this was after his stock had you know just gotten crushed and he was talking about the valuation of Sun micro at the peak of the dot-com mania and I got to read you this quote is perfect for what we're seeing today says it 10 times revenues to give you a ten year payback I have to pay you 100 percent of revenues for ten straight years and dividends that as soon as I can get that past my shareholders that assumes I have zero cost of goods sold which is very hard for a computer company that assumes that have zero expenses which is really hard for 39,000 employees that assumes I pay no taxes which is very hard and that assumes that you pay no taxes on your dividends which is kind of illegal and that also assumes with zero R&D for the next ten years I can maintain the current revenue run rate now having done that would any of you like to buy my stock at $64 a share you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are you don't need any transparency you don't need any footnotes what were you thinking yeah end quote and so that's the Nvidia today that's Netflix today is Facebook today all these companies
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