저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현 은행 위기는 2008년과 다르게 제한적이며, 소수 은행 문제는 곧 해결되고 미국 은행 시스템은 안전하다는 입장. 위기 성격: 이번 사태는 2008년 같은 대형 위기가 아니며, 문제가 있는 은행은 소수에 그친다고 주장. 위기 해결 전망: 소수 은행 문제는 일주일에서 이 주 안에 어떤 식으로든 해결될 것이며, 이후 실적 발표는 대체로 양호할 것이라고 전망. 연준 대응: 연준이 과감한 조치를 취해 일부 문제를 완화했으며, 문제가 빠르게 해소되기를 희망한다고 언급. 규제 관련: 위기의 후유증은 주로 규제 측면에서 나타날 것이며, 규제 비용을 낮추면서도 안전성을 확보하는 방향이 필요하다고 주장. 은행 파산 가능성: 추가 은행 파산이 있을 수 있으나 이번 위기의 마지막 단계에 가까울 것이라고 봄. 실리콘밸리은행(SVB) 분석: 예금보험 미가입 예금, 금리 노출, 만기 보유 포트폴리오 등 문제는 공지의 사실이었고, 소수 고객 집중이 핵심 차이였다고 설명. 퍼스트리퍼블릭 및 구제금융: JP모건 등 은행들이 300억 달러를 예치해 퍼스트리퍼블릭을 지원했으며 효과 여부는 아직 불확실하다고 언급하나 추가 발언은 제한. 금리 전망: 단기금리는 연준이 결정하며 추가 인상 여부는 불확실. 장기금리는 글로벌 투자자 심리와 수급으로 결정되며 주권부채 여건이 악화되어 장기금리 상승 가능성이 있고, 고금리 장기화에 대비해야 한다고 주장. 미국 은행 시스템: 대형은행은 유동성과 자본이 충분하고 스트레스 테스트를 통과할 수 있으나, 중소형 은행은 규제 완화로 취약할 수 있다는 논쟁 언급. 규제 완화 평가: 규제 완화가 이번 사태의 직접 원인은 아니며, 은행들은 기존 유동성·자본·보고 요건을 충족했으나 금리 노출은 과도했다고 평가. 결론적 메시지: 완벽한 시스템은 불가능하며 대형 은행 붕괴는 피해야 하지만, 개별 은행 실패가 도미노 효과로 번지지 않도록 모니터링과 소폭 개선이 필요하다고 주장.
다듬은 글
this is not 2008 okay this is a much more limited there are only a handful of banks that had this particular problem uh they'll eventually be resolved one way or another and I think then people should take a deep breath in a week or two a lot of these Banks can be reporting earnings I think they're probably pretty good the Federal Reserve made some you know bold dramatic moves to help it easier for some of the issues they had and I'm hoping it will resolve you know rather shortly you're hoping but hoping but is the crisis over you wrote in your letter there will be repercussions for years to come well that's that's different I think those repercussions are regulatory like and you know acknowledge think obviously when you have a problem things need to change but you know I'm begging the regulars let's just take a deep breath there are hundreds of rules you know you have to be very careful what do you want in the banking system what do you want out how do you make it easier for Community Banks and Regional Banks how do you reduce their costs not increase their cost on the but also make it safe do you expect more Banks to fail this year I I don't know but if there are I don't honest they'll be resolved and it'll probably be the last of them I think I think again near the end of this particular crisis and fewer financial institutions remember in OA it was hundreds of Institutions around the world far too much leverage we don't have that huge problems in mortgage markets we don't have that this is nothing like that and the American public shouldn't think that this will resolve and then we should go look at you know what went wrong and fix it you know in the clean uh in the light of day well so then then what what was it if this is coming to an end is this a situation like you know Warren Buffett famously said only when the tie goes out you learn who's been swimming naked were these Banks swimming naked yeah so I said there's hiding in plain sight everyone knew about uninsured deposits everyone knew about instrument exposure everyone knew about health maturity portfolios the only difference the only real difference was we called concentrated clients so Silicon Valley Bank had you know a handful of people controlled 35 000 corporate accounts and they just left you know 140 billion dollars or something or of course a course of two days that's not happening to other Regional Banks they don't have that issue nor do they have all these other issues so it was only a handful though without much offsides but then what's going going on with First Republic I mean you led the effort to swoop in 30 billion dollars from you and your fellow Banks to try to study First Republic and you've acknowledged we don't even know yet if that worked yeah so that was an attempt to try to resolve help give them time to resolve a situation we represent them so I really can't talk about any more than that and we hope it resolves one way or another so uh that'll come in the future but I don't I don't think this is that kind of Crisis that you're going to have it ongoing forever it will be now Warren Buffett said when the tide goes out you mentioned something else Rising rates is that tide going out and if that tide goes out a lot so I would tell people be prepared for higher rates I don't know that's going to happen but be prepared if you're not in that tide you think the FED raises again in May well they're two raids one is the short rate I do not know what they're going to do and obviously they may not because you know Financial conditions but there's also longer rates and that has a different effect and that the FED does not control directly that's controlled by Global Investors sentiment supply and demand and that's gotten bad for sovereign debt okay so you know to me yes you have a chance that long rates will be going up and people might get used to higher for longer I higher for longer get ready for that I believe that is a I think it has a high outcome than other people I'm not predicting it right is the American banking system truly safe and secure yes I mean the banks have extraordinary liquidity extraordinary Capital when they report earnings next quarter the earnings going to be quite good in my opinion they can handle not just one stress test but multiple ways of being stressed that's the big guys who have to abide by all those requirements I'm talking about the mid-size and little guys that don't anymore well they they have formal requirements than you think so I don't think it was the requirement some people think that they were done that rollback literally had nothing to do with it how do you know because they had the same internal liquidity requirements stress requirements reporting requirements supervisory requirements they made mistakes it was different if they were under 250 billion dollars in assets not as much as you think so all those Senators that are saying it was wrong to roll them back Democrats rolled it back too some of them those senators are wrong yeah you know look it's not again when you talk about regulations they're looking at one thing and I'm looking at multiple others so they had high liquidity environments High Capital requirements they met the requirements they had too much interest rate exposure and things should change but they were not out of line with super you know with regulations and it wasn't the regulatory change it was other things and by in life that's going to happen this notion that somehow you can make everything perfect is wrong I know but you don't want a big well-known Banks to collapse no you don't but you also really want is that every now and then something will happen and the system can handle it in due course that's what the yes that failure is okay you just don't want this domino effect and so when you have a bank run you end up with some kind of domino effect so I guess my point is we we are close to it get to the point where a bank can fail and it doesn't have this kind of effect okay and I think just monitoring changing a few things can get much much closer to that
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