Tom Lee: Markets are overreacting to the Fed and I would be a dip buyer

요약 보기

Fed 금리 인상은 시장이 이미 반영한 것으로 경제는 충분히 버틸 수 있으며 이번 하락은 과잉반응이라고 주장. 인플레이션은 유가 등 일시적 요인 해소로 둔화될 것이며 경기민감주·기술주·금융주가 반등할 것으로 봄. Dan Greenhouse는 금리 인상이 불필요했다고 보면서도 채권 움직임상 이미 반영됐고 금 매도는 과도하다고 함. 비주거 건설 부진과 알고리즘 매매 영향도 언급. 전반적으로 하락을 저가 매수 기회로 봄.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Today again from Los Angeles. We'll be featuring CNBC's Tom Lee from Fundstrat and Dan Greenhouse from Solace . Gentlemen, it's nice to see you. Tom, let's start with you. You told me that the Fed shouldn't have raised rates. That's what you told me yesterday. Now that they've done it, what do you think?

02. Scott, you know, the market was pricing in that increase. Market reaction, as you may have noticed, the stock market doesn't seem happy with this move. I would tell the audience: The Fed, even if it adds 50 basis points, this is not the level that will bring down the economy. This actually shows that the economy is strong enough to withstand this.

03. And I think earnings views will still grow. So, in my opinion , I would buy on this dip. I see this as a market overreaction to the Fed's actions today. Ovva. Dan Greenhouse, what do you think? Yeah, I didn't think...I thought they could wait. I mean, there were many reasons for them to tighten the policy.

04. Obviously they did, and unanimously, that's a fact, but in terms of the market reaction, as Tom said, generally we were prepared for it. The dynamics of two-year bonds over the past few days, if not months, show that the market has already moved away from the lows. I look, we fell by one and a half, by one and a quarter percent at the lows.

05. We are already a few basis points above the lows. A large part of this is driven by algorithms. As for Tom's point, I'm not sure the whole argument is that 25 or 50 basis points won't hurt the economy. You simply cancel the stimulus, as Chairman Powell said. So I don't think they should have done that, but I also do n't think a 25 basis point increase is a reason to run away from gold.

06. Tom, what should I do at the market? If you say buy on a dip, what exactly should I buy? Yes. I listened carefully to what Jeff said because I think he presents a very balanced opinion, but I may disagree. He has a view that inflation will worsen dramatically over the next 12 months. I did the calculations in my head.

07. For his prediction to come true, oil would have to approach 200, because we are already at 100, and to fuel inflation, it has to rise. But, as Goldman noted, many of these temporary effects are starting to fade, subtracting almost 100 basis points over the next 6 months, on top of the expected revisions of almost 40 basis points projected by the end of the year.

08. So, a core PCE index at 3.3 would have a "two" at the beginning. I think the market will not only react positively to this, I think everything that is falling today—cyclical sectors, technology, consumer staples, and financials—will all show results and react positively. So, in my opinion, this is a very good situation.

09. We see a rise in the VIX index and a sell-off in those groups that believe inflation will remain for a long time. If this does not happen, we are in for a powerful rally. This is exactly the part of the market I was pointing out to Steve Lisman, right? Why do you think the financial sector fell by 2%?

10. I think it's partly a knee-jerk reaction to the flattening yield curve. Uh , part of it is a reaction to the idea of, "Oh, the Fed wants to remove stimulus." Are they trying to engineer a "soft landing"? The financial sector doesn't like this. I don't think that's really the Fed's view. I think it's correct to say that the Fed believes that you can raise the rate by 50 basis points and the economy will handle it.

11. That 's why I believe today's sell-off in financial stocks is an overreaction. OK. Dani, do you have any thoughts on why cyclical sectors are suffering the most right now? I mean, energy is obviously down more than 3%, financials are down two, consumer staples have rebounded but are still close to minus 1%.

12. All I want to say is that if you look beyond the development of data centers, the economy is not showing a crazy pace. And I've emphasized this several times, but I'll repeat it: in particular, residential and non-residential construction is not going so well. And investments outside of data centers and related industries are not going very well.

13. So No, the Fed chairman said the economy is strengthening, Danny. He listed the points, pointing this out . Take a look at the retail sales report. This is actually This is actually This is a surprisingly more significant event than the AI ​​story, which was, at least if you listen to some of the speakers, the only story.

14. This is clearly not true. Well no, that's not and never has been the whole story. The Power of the Consumer We keep calling the consumer resilient, but how many quarters can go by before they continue to do the same thing? Well, I think at some point, say in two years, we should stop using the word " sustainable." But yeah, I don't mean that AI is going to be Okay, let's just call it strong.

15. Let's just call it strong. Consumers are doing well. This is true. And the AI ​​investment cycle is probably a quarter to a third of total GDP growth, to oversimplify the longer story. But beyond that, the situation is not the best in terms of investment, in those sectors of the economy that would be particularly hard hit by higher interest rates.

16. And I will point out again that non-residential construction has been a drag on GDP almost every quarter for the last, I don't know, eight or nine quarters. This ... this part of the economy is not in the best condition. So it could be, okay, now we have higher interest rates that will make that part of the economy, dare I say it, worse.

17. And I...and now listen, I, I, I think we missed one thing that I mentioned earlier , but it's worth repeating: whenever there's a short market reaction to a headline, a significant portion of it, if not all of it, should, should be attributed to the work of algorithms. So I don't know if we should draw any serious conclusions from this right now.

18. But at the same time , I didn't think they should raise the stakes, and perhaps more people agreed with Tom and me than we initially thought.