Jeffrey Gundlach: Worry the inflation problem isn't being fully respected

요약 보기

FOMC 발표 후 기자회견이 공허했다고 평가. 고용은 괜찮다는 입장이나 CPI 둔화가 충분치 않음. 수입·수출물가 평균 7.8%, 근원PCE 3.3%로 2.6~2.7%대였던 코로나 전 수준보다 상승 추세. 코스트코 엔진오일 가격 인상 후 사재기 등 인플레 심리 확산 신호를 지적하며, GDP 개선은 재고 증가 때문이라고 봄. 본인이라면 50bp 인상에 찬성했을 것이라고 주장. 원자재 펀드 ETF 연초 대비 48% 상승 언급.

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금리 결정 후 기자회견에 대한 평가

01. So, that's the background we have. Jeffrey Gundlach will be with us. He is the CEO, Chief Investment Officer, and founder of DoubleLine. He is joining us now. Welcome back. Nice to see you, as always.

02. Okay, good to see you, judge. I'm in New York, and you're in California. This time we got it all mixed up. I know we definitely did it, but at least we're talking. This is the most important thing for our viewers.

03. What is your reaction? Well, I think the press conference was pretty empty. Many questions were asked and not many answers were provided. But the chairman once again emphasized that everything is fine with employment, and confirmed that the rate of inflation, the CPI, inflation statistics are not decreasing at the proper rate.

04. If I were on the committee, I would not really agree today. I noticed that on your show there were a lot of people playing with words, like "one and the edge," and then Steve Lisman said "one and us." I would actually disagree and vote to raise rates by 50 basis points today. I would call it "hit and miss," and a little more "chew" the market with the federal funds rate.

국채금리와 연준 금리 인상 소신

05. Two-year Treasury bonds were 100 basis points above the federal funds rate before the meeting, and today the rate on them rose in response to that one hike.

진짜 인플레이션은 수입·수출물가

06. I think one of the real problems is that true inflation, and I use import-export prices, this is what I call true inflation, because there are no seasonal adjustments, no adjustments for quality and other things that are somewhat artificially priced. Import and export prices are simply prices. If we average the import and export prices that have just been released, the average is 7.8%, which is quite high.

07. And also, going back to something more standard, the core PCE index is 3.3%. For 14 years before COVID, 2.6 or 2.7 was the maximum for core PCE. Since it dropped to 2.6, it is now trending upwards to 3.3.

GDP 상승은 재고 때문

08. One of the things he correctly noted is that the economy looks stronger if you look at GDP over the last few weeks. But the real reason for this is inventory. Yesterday I heard a story that seemed to turn on a light bulb in my head. Namely, Costco doubled the price of its Kirkland motor oil. When they doubled the price, I think they were afraid, or expected, that it would lead to stockpiling.

가격 상승 기대가 사재기를 부른다

09. When prices go up, people think that maybe they'll go up again. When you double the price of Kirkland oil, people might think, "Oh, I see oil is over $100 a barrel. Maybe it'll double again." And they might want to go and stock up on motor oil for a year ahead, so they started rationing it in portions. This is a phenomenon I remember from the '80s and the late '70s, when people start saying, "I think prices are going to go up," and that's why they want to buy now.

10. If you look at GDP now, it was the increase in inventories in recent weeks that pushed the figures up. I wonder if stores and retailers in general are thinking, "Hey, I think prices are going up. I see raw material prices." Our commodity fund, our ETF, is up 48% year to date, and we all know the price of oil has increased tremendously. So maybe people are thinking, "I think prices..."

인플레이션 문제를 충분히 심각하게 보지 않는다는 우려

11. What I'm saying, Judge, is that when you get the psychology that inflation is going up, and that's clearly visible in the PCE and the import-export prices, I worry that the problem of inflation is not being taken seriously enough. Kevin Warsh really focused at the press conference on the fact that inflation is not falling fast enough and is still too high. It was too high for too long. I would just take a 50-point step and then look at the data.

12. So I wasn't surprised that the markets weakened during the press conference, because the content, in my opinion, was quite weak.